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2008 NBA Preview: #1 Los Angeles Lakers

Offseason Movement: The Lakers re-signed Sasha Vujacic and signed Chinese guard Sun Yue. They probably overspent on Vujacic (three years, $15 million) but had to compete with European teams for his services. Vujacic had a great year shooting the ball, but didn’t play particularly well in the Finals, especially on defense.
Keep Your Eye On: Lamar Odom
It’s not clear how Odom is going to fit in with Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum on the Laker front line. It’s going to be tough for Kobe Bryant to find any room to drive when the three big men are on the court at the same time, so the most likely scenario has Odom or Bynum coming off the bench. It’s going to take some time Bynum and Gasol to get used to playing with each other, and if Odom is the one coming off the bench, he’ll have to adjust to a sixth man role. The good news is that if things aren’t working by the trade deadline, they can probably unload Odom for a good player that is a better fit.
The Big Question: Is Bynum’s return enough to get the Lakers over the hump?
Conventional wisdom states that if you take a team that lost in the Finals the previous season and add an up-and-coming seven-foot center to the rotation, then the team will inevitably be better. While that’s certainly a distinct possibility, there’s no guarantee that Bynum will jive with the rest of the rotation. Just because the Lakers are better on paper, it doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to once again run the gauntlet that is the Western Conference playoffs. A lot of things had to go right for the Lakers to make the Finals last year, and a lot of things have to go right for them to make a second straight trip.
Outlook: Despite some training camp kinks that need to be worked out, there is no team in the league with more talent top to bottom. They also have one of the best coaches in the league, so the Lakers are the odds-on favorite to with the title, and rightfully so. Still, there are a number of roadblocks they’ll have to overcome. First, Phil Jackson must find a way to use Gasol, Bynum and Odom to the best of their abilities without limiting what Kobe can do on the drive. Second, Kobe must stay healthy, which means the problem he has with his shooting hand can’t bother him too much and those knees have to stay relatively pain-free. And lastly, they must show better toughness if they meet the Celtics again in the Finals. Bynum brings a lot to the table, but he’s not going to make this team tough by himself. The Celtics were hungrier than the Lakers last season, but now the roles are reversed. If Jackson can get Odom, Bynum and Gasol to play together well, or if the Lakers can trade Odom for a better fit, they should make it to the Finals again. There is just too much talent here; they should be able to figure it out.

2008 NBA Preview: #2 Boston Celtics

Offseason Movement: The Celtics were unable to re-sign James Posey, who ended up signing with the Hornets. GM Danny Ainge did re-sign Tony Allen, Eddie House, and Sam Cassell, while also signing Darius Miles and Patrick O’Bryant. Out of the draft, the team ended up with shooting guard JR Giddens and small forward Bill Walker.
Keep Your Eye On: The bench
Even more than last season, Boston is going to need a regular lift from its bench. With Posey gone, someone will have to pick up his defensive-mindedness and shooting touch. The bench projects to be very young, but with youth comes energy, and the Celtics will need it this season.
The Big Question: Now that the Big Three won a title, will they be as focused?
Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen came to Boston with one thing in mind – a NBA championship. Paul Pierce set aside his ego for the same reason. Throughout that season, the Celtics were focused on a singular goal, but now that they have their rings, will they be able to bring that same intensity every night? Hunger can really bolster a team’s success, and Boston will somehow have to manufacture that hunger this season. That’s a tough thing to do.
Outlook: The C’s are still the class of the East, but will face a bigger test within the conference given the improvements that the Sixers and the Heat have made, along with the continued maturity of the Magic and the Cavs. James Posey was so crucial to the team’s playoff success that one wonders if the team will be overcome that loss and stay as focused as they were last season. They are the odds-on favorites to win the East, but it’s shaping up to be a very interesting season in Beantown.

2008 NBA Preview: #3 New Orleans Hornets

Offseason Movement: The Hornets #1 job this offseason was to lock up Chris Paul, and they managed to sign the superstar point guard to a deal that runs through 2013. GM Jeff Bower poached James Posey from the Celtics in a move that will bolster the team’s bench. He also signed Devin Brown to give the team some depth at guard.
Keep Your Eye On: The Hornets’ wings
In Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler, New Orleans has three of the top players in the league at their respective positions. (Chandler isn’t an offensive force, but he’s a terrific shot blocker and rebounder and his contract is a bargain at the center position.) The key to the Hornets success might be the play at off guard and small forward, which are currently manned by Morris Peterson and Peja Stojakovic, respectively. Both players are 31 and have shown signs of decline. Neither player is a defensive force, so if their shots aren’t falling, there’s really no reason for them to be on the floor. Julian Wright is an up-and-coming small forward who played very well in limited minutes last season and James Posey was signed for his championship experience, tough defense and clutch shooting. Devin Brown will also play a factor.
The Big Question: Can the Paul/West combo lead these Hornets to the Finals?
Both Paul (23) and West (28) are in their primes so the championship window is wide open. They nearly upended the Spurs in last year’s playoffs and have added a valuable piece (Posey) to their championship puzzle. The Hornets need good shooting from their wings to give Paul and West the space to operate. Whomever is on the floor in crunch time needs to be able to knock down shots because inevitably the Hornets’ season will depend on it.
Outlook: With Paul locked up for five years and West locked up for the next three, the Hornets are clearly in their championship sweet spot. But it seems like the team is one player away from being a serious title contender. Stojakovic was supposed to be that guy, but his defensive limitations and suspect shooting in the clutch may make the Hornets regret signing that huge contract two summers ago (if they aren’t already regretting it). Don’t be surprised if Posey gets a lot of crunch time minutes. If he can perform like he did with the Celtics last season, the Hornets have a good shot of getting out of the West.

2008 NBA Preview: #4 San Antonio Spurs

Offseason Movement: The Spurs were pretty quiet this offseason, apparently content with their roster. They re-signed Michael Finley and Kurt Thomas, and drafted George Hill, a combo guard that could really score in college.
Keep Your Eye On: Manu Ginobili’s ankle
Manu Ginobili will be out of action until mid-December after undergoing left ankle surgery. The Spurs won the title in 2003, 2005 and 2007, and I would pick them this year if not for the uncertainty surrounding Ginobili’s health. If he comes back at 100%, the Spurs have a great shot at a fourth title in seven years. Ginobili’s ankle is especially worrisome considering his style of play. He’s most effective when he’s able to drive to the hole, and a shaky ankle may limit his ability to get to the rim.
The Big Question: Do the Spurs have another title run in them?
Ginobili (31 years old), Tim Duncan (32), Michael Finley (35), Bruce Bowen (37) and Kurt Thomas (36) are all pretty long in the tooth and they’ll all be playing a major role in the Spurs’ rotation this season. Obviously, Ginobili and Duncan are the keys – if they are healthy and can play at a high level, the Spurs are going to be a very tough out, especially considering that the 26 year-old Tony Parker is just hitting his prime.
Outlook: Same ol’ same ol’. The Spurs recipe for success is pretty simple. They’ve signed their stars to reasonable contracts and with regard to the supporting cast, chemistry outweighs ability or upside. Duncan is signed for four more seasons, which would make him 36 in the final year of his contract. Realistically, the team has a 2-3 year window in which to win another title. Duncan is still playing at a high level, but there’s no guarantee that at 34 or 35, he’ll still be able to post franchise-cornerstone numbers. There is no doubt that the clock is ticking. This season probably represents the Spurs’ best chance for another title.

2008 NBA Preview: #5 Utah Jazz

Offseason Movement: The Jazz exercised a couple of no-brainer contract options on Ronnie Brewer and Paul Millsap, and signed Deron Williams to a long-term deal. The other main acquisition was center Kosta Koufos via the draft.
Keep Your Eye On: Carlos Boozer
Boozer has another year on his deal, but it’s a player option, and considering he can make more on the open market, he’ll probably opt out. That doesn’t mean that he’s leaving Utah, but given Boozer’s history, the team is justifiably worried. Utah has a lot of money tied up in Andrei Kirilenko (three years, $49 million) and it would be much better spent on a new deal for Boozer. Complicating matters is Mehmet Okur, who can also opt out next summer. The good news is that the Jazz locked up Deron Williams, so that should encourage both Boozer and Okur to stay.
The Big Question: Is this group good enough to get over the hump?
Utah has a nice roster, but it’s unclear if the current core – Williams, Boozer, Okur, AK-47 – is good enough to get past the West’s elite. Can Williams and Boozer raise their respective games? Will another player (Brewer, Koufos) turn into a star?
Outlook: The Jazz are right on the cusp and they’ll always play hard for Jerry Sloan, so they’ll be in the thick of things come playoff time. That means that they’re likely to advance to the Western Conference Semis or Western Conference Finals and meet a roadblock like the Lakers, Hornets or Spurs. I’d like to see Jerry Sloan make another trip to the Finals, but the odds are against that happening this season.

2008 NBA Preview: #6 Houston Rockets

Offseason Movement: The team acquired Ron Artest from the Kings in exchange for Bobby Jackson and draftee Donte Greene. Trading for Artest is a risky move, but one that the Rockets pretty much had to take. The window is closing on the Tracy McGrady/Yao Ming combination and the team had to make a bold move to shake things up. And any move that puts Ron Artest on your roster is a bold move. The Rockets also re-signed forward Carl Landry, who was very productive in limited minutes last season.
Keep Your Eye On: The Rockets’ injury report
If T-Mac, Yao Ming and Ron Artest can all play 75+ games and are healthy for the playoffs, this team will be very competitive. But as history has shown us, that is a HUGE “if.” Yao hasn’t played more than 57 games in any of the last three seasons and McGrady is averaging 61 games played over the same span. So the Rockets can’t really hope that the duo will stay healthy, they just have to hope that whatever injuries T-Mac and Yao do sustain aren’t of the season-ending variety.
The Big Question: Assuming health isn’t a factor, how will Ron Artest fit in?
With the acquisition of Artest, three of the Rockets’ top four players are actually small forwards. Luckily T-Mac can play off guard and Shane Battier can play a little power forward and come off the bench. Known for his…um…fiery personality, Artest rehabbed his image while with the Kings, and for the most part he was a pretty good citizen. Anytime you add a player of his caliber, the other guys are going to have to make an adjustment. The silver lining to the T-Mac and Yao injury concerns is that the team will probably need Artest to play a major role at some point this season.
Outlook: Along with T-Mac, Artest, Battier and Yao, the Rockets have a nice group of role players that helped the team catch fire last season after they lost their center. Luis Scola gave the team inside scoring and rebounding (though he was absolutely lost on defense) and Landry provided some much-needed toughness in the paint. Brent Barry provides some outside shooting, while Aaron Brooks is developing into a nice backup for starter Rafer Alston. The team can go nine deep, which gives them the necessary depth to withstand a short-term injury to one (or both) of their stars. If everyone is healthy for the playoffs, watch out for the Rockets. If T-Mac or Yao sustains another season-ending injury, the Rockets might elect to blow the team up and start from scratch.

2008 NBA Preview: #7 Phoenix Suns

Offseason Movement: The Suns signed Matt Barnes to a one-year contract. Barnes had a nice season for the Warriors two years ago (averaging 9.8 points and 4.6 rebounds), but fell out of favor in Golden State and saw his minutes cut. He’s a decent three-point shooter (37% in ’06-’07) and is otherwise an energy guy with a pretty good handle. The team drafted Robin Lopez, the more defensive-minded of the Lopez twins from Stanford. (You know, Sideshow Bob.) He may be the future at center once Shaq hangs ‘em up.
Keep Your Eye On: Shaquille O’Neal
Shaq’s scoring numbers have been in a freefall since the ’04-’05 season. At that point in his career, he was averaging 22.9 points and 10.4 rebounds. In 28 games with the Suns, he averaged 12.9 points and 10.6 boards. Clearly, Shaq can still rebound when he wants to. He shot 61% from the field with the Suns, but his blocks have slipped from 2.3 four seasons ago to 1.2 last season. If he is committed mentally and physically, there’s no reason that he can’t play 60-70 games at a 15/10 clip. If the Suns can get to the playoffs with everyone healthy, they’ll be a factor. If Shaq is out of shape and the knees start to bother him, the Suns season is pretty much over.
The Big Question: Will trading away Marion ultimately pay off?
GM Steve Kerr took a big risk last season when he traded Shawn Marion to the Heat for Shaq. Two years ago, the Suns were a couple of bench-clearing infractions away from upending the eventual-champion Spurs. The franchise could have kept that group together, but Marion was an offseason headache and Kerr ultimately decided to take a couple of aspirin last year. We’ll never know what would have happened had he kept that group together, but it did seem like the window was closing as the Marion drama affected the team’s chemistry.
Outlook: Cautiously optimistic. If we’re talking about getting to the Finals, the Suns are one of those teams that needs everything to break the right way. The team should benefit from a half-season and a training camp with Shaq, and if he, Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire can all stay relatively healthy, the team has the juice to go a long way in the West. But Nash is 34 and Shaq is 36, so chances are one will miss significant time, and that can’t overlap with the playoffs. The Suns have spent the last few years giving away most of their draft picks, so they are pretty much “all in” this season. If they don’t make a serious run, Kerr might decide to blow the team up and start over with Stoudemire as his centerpiece.

2008 NBA Preview: #8 Philadelphia 76ers

Offseason Movement: The Sixers probably had the biggest “get” of the offseason when they signed Elton Brand to a long-term deal. So the same team that gave the Pistons a good run in the playoffs is now adding an All-Star caliber player who, along with Kevin Garnett and Chris Bosh, might be the best power forward in the East.
Keep Your Eye On: Thaddeus Young
At just 19 and largely ignored, Young had the highest PER of any rookie in the league who played at least 1,000 minutes. He only saw limited minutes in the first two months of the season, but by February, he was seeing 29 minutes a game and was posting an average of 11.2 points and 4.7 rebounds per game while shooting a stellar 56% from the field. He has an improving long-range jumper and, simply stated, Young has “future star” written all over him.
The Big Question: Can Brand (and Andre Iguodala) lead this team to the Finals?
The Brand signing was a coup for the Sixers, and now that they’ve locked up both Brand and AI2 to big, long-term contracts, one wonders if they hitched their wagon to the right pair of horses. Both guys are very good NBA players, but neither guy has proven that he can be “The Man” on a championship-caliber team. The next two or three seasons will be each player’s best chance to win a title, and it’s going to be interesting to see how this young team develops over this span.
Outlook: Upbeat. While the Brand acquisition looks great on paper, it’s tough to add such a big name and expect everything to go smoothly from the get-go. Brand is coming off a nasty Achilles injury, and while he played well in limited action last season, there’s no guarantee that he’s back to 100%. Still, if they are able to gel, they look like a legitimate contender in the East. They have a strong starting five (including Young, Andre Miller and Samuel Dalembert) and a good bench, and even without Brand, they proved they could compete with the Pistons in the playoffs. All signs point to a nice year.

2008 NBA Preview: #9 Detroit Pistons

Offseason Movement: The Pistons’ biggest offseason signing was Kwame Brown. That’s right…Kwame Brown.
Keep Your Eye On: The Pistons’ age
Chauncey Billups (32), Rip Hamilton (30), Rasheed Wallace (34) and Antonio McDyess (34) are all at the end of or past their respective primes, so the Pistons are going to hit the wall, it’s just a matter of when. Will it be this season? The team does have some youth in Tayshaun Prince (28), Rodney Stuckey (22), Jason Maxiell (25) and Amir Johnson (21), but Prince is the only completely dependable player on that list. Stuckey has a chance to be a star, but he’s going to be playing behind Billups and Hamilton for the foreseeable future.
The Big Question: Does this group have another run in it?
After last season, it looked like the Pistons were going to make some big changes, but after a few rumored trades fell through, they’re left with pretty much the same roster as last season. So this leaves the Pistons in a tough spot. They’re good enough to (easily) make the playoffs, but are they good enough to make another Finals appearance?
Outlook: Fruitless. Unless everything breaks their way, it’s hard to see the Pistons making the Finals with this group. I like the roster, and when they’re firing on all cylinders, they’re very tough to beat. But they are at times complacent, and they’re just not good enough anymore to be giving games away in the playoffs. They almost lost to an upstart Philly team due to a lack of focus. Once again, they’ll make the playoffs and, once again, they’ll probably win their first round series, but barring a big leap by one of their young players, that’s probably as far as they’ll go.

2008 NBA Preview: #10 Orlando Magic

Offseason Movement: The Magic were courting Corey Maggette for much of the offseason, but settled instead on Mickael Pietrus. With Jameer Nelson, Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis surrounding Dwight Howard, the team needed an athletic off guard who can defend and Pietrus has the potential to be that guy. I say “potential” because the 26 year-old never quite fit in with Golden State, but the Magic are gambling that it had more to do with Don Nelson than Pietrus’ limitations. He’s a good shooter from the corner, and if he can improve his handle, he could develop a nice attack-the-basket game. He has all the tools to be a stopper defensively, but has thus far shown a propensity to commit way too many fouls.
Keep Your Eye On: Jameer Nelson
With Keyon Dooling gone, Nelson will likely be asked to play more minutes than he did last season (28.4). In the playoffs, he responded well to increased PT, posting 16.2 points and 4.7 assists in 33.3 minutes. Nelson is not a traditional playmaker, but he’s a good fit for what the Magic are trying to do. The team needs shooters to give Howard the space to work down low, and Nelson can most certainly shoot it (42% 3PT last season). At 26, it’s going to be interesting to see if he makes the next step or if his game has already topped out.
The Big Question: Does Orlando have enough of a bench to compete with the East’s best?
I really like Orlando’s starting five, but the team projects to have Anthony Johnson, J.J. Redick, Keith Bogans, Tony Battie and Adonal Foyle anchoring the bench. Those names don’t exactly strike fear in the hearts of Eastern Conference opponents. With Nelson, Pietrus, Turkoglu, Lewis and Howard, the team can compete with any group of starters in the East, but it remains to be seen if the bench can hold its own with its counterparts.
Outlook: Good. Orlando has done a nice job of assembling a team that can compete in the East, but I wonder if/when the team will start to pay for the monster contract they gave Rashard Lewis two summers ago. Will it limit their ability to re-sign Turkoglu next year? If not, the team will be way over the cap and limited to mid-level exception-type players for the foreseeable future. If management is will to spend like that, fine, but if they’re going to start cutting costs to stay below the luxury tax threshold, they’re going to have to make some tough decisions. And the team can’t afford to lose a player of Turkoglu’s stature. If the team is going to make the leap and become one of the league’s best, it is going to have to re-sign its stars, draft really well from late in the first round and spend its mid-level wisely.

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