Last night, it pretty much seemed like a done deal that Hedo Turkoglu was going to sign with the Blazers, but now ESPN is reporting that the Turkish forward is going to instead sign with the Toronto Raptors.

The decision left the Blazers livid and was a huge coup for the Raptors, who have promised Turkoglu all of the salary-cap space they will have from renouncing their rights to Shawn Marion, Anthony Parker and Carlos Delfino, which will likely add up to a starting salary in the $10.1 million range, with eight percent annual raises.

A source close to the discussions said Turkoglu had given a verbal commitment to the Blazers on Thursday, then alerted the team on Friday morning that he was having second thoughts. By mid-afternoon Pacific time, the Blazers were told the deal was dead and Turkoglu would be signing with the Raptors.

Turkoglu will make about $3 million more over the life of the contract than he would have made in Portland, but a bigger reason for his change of heart, a source told ESPN.com, was his desire to play in Toronto, a more international and cosmopolitan city — one with a large Turkish population — and his familiarity with the Eastern Conference after having spent the last five seasons with the Magic.

It seems like a dangerous thing to delve inside the mind of Hedo Turkoglu, but I’m going to try. First, he sets his price tag so high that the team that made him a star — the Orlando Magic — can’t or won’t afford to keep him. So he’d rather play for the up-and-coming Blazers than try to repeat as Eastern Conference champs in Orlando. That’s a decision I could understand. I didn’t think that he’d get the $10 million per season that he was looking for, but the Blazers ponied up, and they look like a team that will be at or near the top of the West for the next several years. But to shun Portland to play for an also-ran that seems destined to lose its best player (Chris Bosh) for a few extra million doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.

I suppose it’s tough to turn down $3 million, but when you’re talking about $53 million or $50 million, I don’t see much of a difference. Personally, I’d want to play for a contender, and knowing how elusive chemistry and dynasties can be, I probably would have taken the four-year, $35 million extension from the Magic. I can’t blame Turkoglu for taking the extra $15 million and heading to Portland, but I do question the reasoning behind shunning the Blazers for the Raptors.

Maybe he’ll help the Raptors get back to the playoffs. Maybe he’ll be the difference that will convince Bosh to re-sign. Or maybe the Raptors will flounder as a fringe playoff team and he’ll eventually regret this decision as he watches Orlando and Portland play deep into the postseason year after year.

Per TrueHoop…

Although a verbal commitment may be announced sooner, the terms of the contract cannot be finalized until Wednesday when the NBA informs teams what the 2009-10 salary cap will be.

The Orlando Magic’s recent trade for Vince Carter, who has a large salary and plays small forward — which is Turkoglu’s position — made it highly unlikely Turkoglu would be back in Orlando.

The Toronto Raptors expressed interest in Turkoglu, but were constrained by their other efforts to keep Shawn Marion and Carlos Delfino.

Turkoglu, a 6-10 forward from Turkey who played a prominent role in the Magic’s recent trip to the NBA Finals, had been looking for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $50 million.

Five years and $50 million is a lot for Turkoglu, who is already 30 years-old and isn’t particularly efficient statistically. But his game is a pretty good fit for the Blazers, who want to space the court for Brandon Roy. Turkoglu is a good enough shooter to do that, plus he can handle the ball really well for a small forward, which help to take the pressure off of Roy. In fact, with Roy at the two and Turkoglu at the three, there’s enough ball handling there that the team doesn’t have to play with a traditional point guard. This may open up minutes for Rudy Fernandez, who was reportedly upset about the Blazers’ interest in Turkoglu.

The other thing to remember is that the Blazers’ cap space wasn’t going to last. They have to sign both Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge to big extensions as soon as this summer and Greg Oden will be eligible for an extension next summer. It was sort of a “use it or lose” it scenario for the Blazers, and owner Paul Allen has never been afraid to spend. They added a versatile, experienced small forward who proved in the playoffs that he knows how to win. $10 million per season is a lot for Turkoglu, but his game should age pretty well, so at worst the Blazers should get quality play for the first three or four years of the deal.

What’s lost in all of this is the fact that Orlando will not be bringing back the core that went to the Finals this year. Chemistry is a rare quality and the Magic may rue the day that they brought in Vince Carter and waved goodbye to Turkoglu. After all, there were two overtime games in the first four, and the Lakers won both. Had those games gone the other way, the Magic would have led the series 3-1 with Game 5 at home to clinch the title. They didn’t need to tinker this much, and GM Otis Smith may eventually regret it.

In a surprising sequence of events, Ron Artest has agreed to a three-year deal with the Los Angeles Lakers, while Trevor Ariza is headed to Houston with a five-year deal. Both contracts are of the mid-level variety, which are expected to start at about $5.8 million per season.

J.A. Adande writes…

Just as telling is the Lakers’ decision to go with Artest instead of younger Trevor Ariza. It shows they’re putting everything into these next three years and not worrying too much about the future. Ariza would have wanted a five-year contract; Artest was willing to come for three. The end of Artest’s contract coincides with the reported opt-out clause for Bryant. We don’t know whether Kobe will choose to leave in 2012, but we do know this: He’ll be 33 that summer, turning 34 in August. The three years with Artest probably represent Bryant’s last stages of physical superiority over the opposition. He’ll still be ahead of the pack in knowledge and determination, but we’ve already seen some slipping in his athletic ability and it will only decline from here.

So the Lakers are thinking short-term and trying to squeeze in a couple more championships right now. Lakers GM Mitch Kupchak was even willing to increase his roster’s average age and let one of his best acquisitions walk away, two things general managers are generally loath to do.

Artest gives the Lakers the same qualities as Ariza — perimeter defense and toughness — plus the ability to get his own shot, and a dash of crazy. Ariza wound up in Artest’s old spot in Houston, where he’s actually a better fit. With Yao Ming’s career on pause — at best — the Rockets have to position themselves to be good in a couple of years, perhaps by bringing in a major free agent in 2010 and/or having Yao return from treatment on his feet that might hinder him for the better part of two seasons. Amazing how quickly a team that seemed on the rise in these playoffs now finds itself retooling.

We’ll never know if Ariza was just playing hardball when he expressed frustration that the Lakers wouldn’t offer more than the mid-level because the team called his bluff and moved on. I like this signing for the Rockets, who were originally interested in Orlando big man Marcin Gortat. But when the “Polish Hammer” reportedly made a verbal agreement to join the Mavs, the Rockets moved on to the 24-year-old Ariza.

Artest is a little nutty, and he has the potential to sabotage the Lakers’ season, but it’s not like the team is championship-caliber because they have great chemistry. They don’t. They have more talent than anyone, and when Ariza became irritated with the Lakers’ unwillingness to go over the mid-level, they quickly moved on to their backup plan. Artest will accept his role in L.A. and should fit in just fine. But three years is a long time for him to behave; I expect he’ll have at least one dust up before it’s all said and done.

With the All-Star break quickly approaching, many MLB teams are trying to figure out whether or not they’ll be buyers or sellers later this month. It’s a tricky game front offices must play, because they don’t want to alienate their fans by suggesting that their club is already out of contention with half the season left to go, but teams also don’t want to miss out on adding a piece for the future because they’re hanging onto a veteran that won’t play a significant role down the line.

That said, I’ve compiled a ranking of the five most intriguing names that either are on the trade market, or could be. Granted, every player outside of guys named Pujols, Jeter and Howard could potentially be on the trade market, but I tried to keep the list to only those names that continue to pop up in the weekly rumor mill, whether their teams have officially those names as available or not.

Two names you won’t find on the list are Dan Haren and Jake Peavy, even though they have been brought up in various trade rumors. The Diamondbacks aren’t going to trade Haren unless some team offers a ridiculous package (as in multiple top prospects) and Peavy’s injury situation has all but killed his trade value. I would be shocked if either player gets dealt this season.

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- According to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney, the Red Sox might have interest in Rockies third baseman Garrett Atkins after Boston recently placed Mike Lowell on the DL. Colorado is searching for a reliever to help improve their bullpen.

- Rumor has it that the Braves’ increasing frustration with the talented, but immature Yunel Escobar could land him on the trade block. Considering he’s only 26 and is batting .293 with seven dingers and 40 RBI, there would certainly be a market for him if Atlanta does eventually make him available.

- Even though some believe that the Mets are still actively searching for offensive help, manger Jerry Manuel told reporters that the club “has enough.”

- The Arizona Republic suggests that if the Diamondbacks get a package similar to the one they got when they acquired Dan Haren from Oakland a few years ago, the club could still be willing to move the starting pitcher. A trade seems awfully unlikely though.

- The Mariners have reportedly started discussions with the Padres regarding a trade for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff according to FOX Sports.com.

Donald Sterling must have read my post from last week, as he finally OK’ed the deal to send Zach Randolph to Memphis.

Zach Randolph was packaged for delivery to Memphis on Wednesday when the teams agreed to a deal that will bring back former Clipper Quentin Richardson, and open a starting spot for rookie Blake Griffin.

In a surprise, the Clippers didn’t do it to dump salary. Owner Donald T. Sterling actually resisted the move when a similar deal with Memphis came up on draft day, saying he wanted to do it only if it was a “basketball decision.”

When his people said it was a basketball decision, the deal was resurrected.

Nevertheless, with Randolph under contract for two more seasons at $33 million, and Richardson on the last year of his deal at $8.7 million, it will impact their bottom line, and, with their payroll now far below the salary cap after this season, can make them a major player in the big 2010 free-agent class.

With the move the Clippers’ projected payroll for the 2010 season is only about $32 million (plus whatever they have to pay Blake Griffin), so the franchise will be able to join the free agent frenzy of 2010.

I honestly don’t know what the Grizzlies are thinking. It’s not like Randolph has shown any signs in the last few years of being a piece to the championship puzzle.

Per ESPN…

The 24-year-old swingman, who played a key role in the Lakers’ run to their 15th NBA championship, is on the verge of leaving the club, sources close to the situation said on Wednesday.

With at least five teams pursuing Ariza, the Lakers are currently unwilling to pay him more than the $5.6 million mid-level exception.

Cleveland is making a hard push for Ariza, and the Cavaliers’ coaching staff was speaking with him on Wednesday. While Cleveland can only offer the mid-level as well, Ariza’s disappointment with the Lakers’ stance has moved other suitors ahead of his current team.

Ariza’s position doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. The Lakers traded for him and gave him the opportunity to flourish, yet he isn’t willing to stay even though they’re willing to match the best offer he’s getting (up to the mid-level). He apparently feels that the Lakers’ unwillingness to give him more than his market value is a slap in the face.

I suspect his camp is just leveraging these “bad feelings” to get the Lakers to raise their offer a bit, which they probably will.

The Detroit Pistons have a ton of cap space heading into 2009 NBA free agency, and they apparently aren’t afraid to use it, agreeing in principle to contracts with Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva.

Former Bulls guard Gordon will receive a five-year deal for between $55 million and $60 million, while former Bucks forward Villanueva gets a five-year deal for $40 million, sources told ESPN.com’s Chris Broussard.

Gordon rejected deals from Chicago in excess of $50 million each of the past two seasons. Milwaukee elected to let the 24-year-old Villanueva become an unrestricted free agent earlier this week, after the Bucks determined that matching any restricted free-agent offers would move the team closer to the luxury tax threshold and limit changing the roster.

It’s not surprising that the Pistons signed both of these players, but the value of the contracts seem a little high when taking the current economic climate into consideration. It seems like GM Joe Dumars is operating in a 2006 or 2007 mindset when the reality is that the demand for these players probably didn’t justify $11 million per season for Gordon and $8 millon per season for Villanueva.

There are only eight teams with significant cap space this summer — the Grizzlies, Pistons, Hawks, Thunder, Kings, Raptors, Blazers and Timberwolves — and Memphis, OKC and Minnesota weren’t expected to be big players this offseason. The Bulls were trying to re-sign Gordon, and they probably were in the same neighborhood of the two deals they offered over the last two years that averaged $10 million and $9 million per season, so Detroit may have felt they had to outbid Chicago to pry him away. But I just don’t think he’s worth it, given his defensive liabilities and his lack of size for an off guard.

As for Villanueva, he was intrigued with the possibility of playing with LeBron James and Shaquille O’Neal in Cleveland, but they could only offer him a mid-level deal, which would probably start at around $5.5 million per season. Even though his new contract’s $8 million per season average is the first thing to jump out, we need to focus on the first season. The contract could very well start at $6 million and go up $1 million per season for five years, which would add up to $40 million. They needed to outbid the mid-level deal to convince Villanueva to join a non-contender. Still, that’s a big commitment for a player who has a reputation for being a poor defender and has had his work ethic questioned at time. But at 24, Villanueva is still learning and is already a proven scorer.

This Gordon signing may indicate that Rip Hamilton will be moved before next February’s trade deadline. Though he’s getting older, he’s still a highly efficient scorer and he’d definitely be able to help a contender. I doubt that it’s Dumars’ plan to have $22 million locked up per season at one position. If Hamilton is moved, then the Pistons would be building around a lineup of Rodney Stuckey, Gordon, Tayshaun Prince and Villanueva.

The Angels have leapfrogged the Rangers for first place in the AL West, although that doesn’t mean that they’re ready to stand pat with their current roster.

According to a report by FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal, the Halos inquired about Diamondbacks’ starter Dan Haren, who could have joined Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, John Lackey and Ervin Santana (once he’s activated from the DL) to form one of the better rotations in the American League.

But as Rosenthal reports, Arizona didn’t want to part with Haren, who the club views as a significant piece of its future. Rosenthal writes that L.A. could have used “their surplus of catchers and middle infielders” to put together a blockbuster offer, but in the end the D-Backs couldn’t imagine a package that would be big enough to sway them to move Haren.

And who could blame them? Even though they’re a whopping 17.5 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West doesn’t mean that’d be more inclined to deal the 28-year old Haren, who leads the club in wins, ERA and strikeouts. With marquee pitching being such a premium in baseball, the D’Backs need to hang tightly onto Haren.

Pistons, Blazers interested in Hedo Turkoglu.

The Oregonian reports Blazers general manager Kevin Pritchard and assistant general manager Tom Penn called agent Lon Babby last night to begin the courtship of Hedo Turkoglu.

With Carlos Boozer out of the picture, an NBA source tells the Chicago Sun-Times that Turkoglu is now the Pistons’ first choice in free agency.

While the Blazers’ interest has long been rumored, Detroit’s interest is a little surprising. They already have a very good small forward on the roster in Tayshaun Prince, so unless they’re planning to play Turkoglu at the four, someone is going to lose some minutes. Of the two teams, the Pistons have more cap space, so if they want him, they can get him. (And what about Ben Gordon?)

Charlie V ahead of Turkoglu on the Pistons’ wishlist?

Chicago’s Ben Gordon remains the backcourt player deeply coveted by the Pistons, but the prospect of a Gordon-and-Villanueva combo likely would be slightly cheaper than trying to sign Gordon and Turkoglu with Detroit’s nearly $19 million in projected salary-cap space.

The Pistons may also be interested in Paul Millsap, but anytime a team signs a restricted free agent to an offer sheet, that money is tied up for a week while his current team decides to match. That makes signing an RFA a dicey prospect.

I wonder if the Bucks are regretting letting Villanueva given the amount of interest he’s generating from their division rivals (Detroit and Cleveland).

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Tuesday Afternoon Update: Mehmet Okur is going to play the final year of his contract as well.

Earlier today, we discussed the possibility of Carlos Boozer playing out the final year of his contract, and that’s exactly what he decided to do.

Boozer’s decision was a reversal from his December comments to an ESPN.com reporter that he was planning to opt out and would get a raise regardless. The Jazz, however, long questioned if the market that Boozer believed existed was more fantasy than reality.

In the end, it sounds as if Boozer considered his prospects and decided to take the sure $12.7 million instead of rolling the dice on the open market. If he is able to play at a high level and without injury, he stands to significantly improve his value heading into the summer of 2010. There are so many teams cutting salary in preparation for that summer’s free agent frenzy, so if he can stay healthy, he definitely stands to gain. However, by playing out the last year of this deal, he is forgoing the security of the long-term contract that he otherwise would have signed this summer. If he were to suffer a career-ending injury next season, he’d be leaving perhaps $42 million on the table.

How does this affect the team’s payroll?

The Jazz also are treading in dangerous territory in regard to the luxury tax. Boozer’s return gives them approximately $64.5 million in salary commitments to 10 players for the upcoming season.

That’s before making decisions about re-signing Okur - should he opt out - and Millsap. The NBA’s luxury-tax threshold is expected to be around $70 million and the Jazz would have to carry at least a league-minimum 13 players on their roster.

“It could be [a problem],” Miller said, “but it’s like I said before: If we need to go into the luxury tax to protect our players and protect our team, keep it intact, we’d have to take a look at that.”

If Okur opts out, the Jazz projected payroll would be around $63 million, leaving some (but not a lot) of flexibility to sign Paul Millsap. If Okur plays out the final year of his deal, Utah will have to pay a steep luxury tax to re-sign Millsap. Essentially, if a franchise is over the luxury tax threshold, they have to pay a dollar-for-dollar tax. Simply stated, now that Boozer has opted in, if Okur opts in, it’s going to make it tougher for the Jazz to retain Millsap.

I’m sure there are a few teams out there licking their chops at the prospect of signing Millsap.

Per ESPN…

Hours before the start of NBA free agency, Detroit Pistons president Joe Dumars made a splash of a different sort Tuesday, firing coach Michael Curry after just one season amid ongoing concerns about Curry’s command of the locker room and fears that keeping him could hamper Detroit’s offseason business.

NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Pistons — projected to have more spending money than any team in the league when the market opens for business at 12:01 a.m. ET Wednesday — had been contemplating the move for weeks after Curry’s rocky debut season, and decided to go ahead with the change, in part to help maintain their position as the team with the most free-agent ammunition this summer.

The Pistons went 39-43 under Curry in a tumultuous 2008-09 campaign that ended with a first-round playoff sweep against Cleveland. Curry gradually lost support from some of Detroit’s veterans — most notably popular shooting guard Rip Hamilton — after he elected to move Hamilton to the bench to accommodate November trade acquisition Allen Iverson.

The article mentions Avery Johnson and Doug Collins (whose name is seemingly mentioned for every head coach opening) as possible replacements.

Pistons not willing to pony up for Boozer?

The Pistons would love to sign Carlos Boozer should he decide today to opt out of the final year of his contract with the Jazz and become a free agent.

However, if Boozer opts out, he would leave $12.6 million on the table in Utah. Thus, there is a good chance Boozer, as has been widely speculated, would look to start his next contract at $14 million or $15 million.

If that is the case, the Pistons most likely would walk away.

Just because a guy asks for a contract starting at $14-$15 million doesn’t mean that the Pistons have to give it to him. If Boozer opts out, the Pistons are his most likely landing spot, so they set the market, not him. If he wants an unreasonable deal, they shouldn’t walk away, they should make an offer and give him some time to find a better one. Chances are that he won’t, and he’ll end up taking Detroit’s deal.

Assuming Boozer does not dramatically reduce his asking price, the Pistons would go after Bucks forward Charlie Villanueva.

Villanueva will turn 25 in August and is coming off his best season. He averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds for the Bucks.

The Pistons could conceivably sign Gordon and Villanueva and still have money left over to pursue re-signing Antonio McDyess.

I estimate Gordon’s value to be about $9 million, though he has turned down bigger offers from the Bulls in the past. Villanueva will probably get lots of MLE offers, so the Pistons would likely have to trump those to convince him to play in Detroit instead of Cleveland (or for another contender). So if Detroit signs both, expect them to pay at least $15.5-$16.0 million combined. That doesn’t leave a lot of space for McDyess.

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For a time, it seemed like it was inevitable that Carlos Boozer would opt out (or not opt in, in this case) and hit the open market as an unrestricted free agent. But the economic climate has changed and the market for his services does not appear to be as strong as it was once thought to be. Boozer might very well play another year in Utah.

Boozer has until 5 p.m. on Tuesday to decide whether to exercise a player option on his contract with the Utah Jazz. The contract is set to pay Boozer $12.7 million next season if he opts in. Could he make more than that on the open market?

For months it was assumed that Boozer would land in Detroit. But last week Pistons sources told ESPN.com that Boozer wasn’t the team’s highest priority and that if they pursued him, they weren’t willing to give him the $13-15 million a year he’s looking for.

The Jazz aren’t in a great position to re-sign him either. Utah has to sign another free agent, Paul Millsap, and possibly a second, Mehmet Okur, if he opts out of his contract. Okur’s agent told The Associated Press on Monday that his client was leaning toward opting out. Those two contracts would put the Jazz near the luxury tax threshold. It’s unlikely they would go over to re-sign Boozer.

“As soon as it looked like the Pistons were the only team with the money and desire to pay him,” one Eastern Conference GM said, “I knew Boozer would be changing his mind. Unless I knew for sure that the Pistons would pay me big bucks, you just can’t make that gamble. I fully expect him to be back with the Jazz next year.”

Earlier this week, I estimated Boozer’s market value at about $12-$13 million per season. I think that if he does opt out, he’d eventually get that kind of a contract because a team willing to spend would work out a sign-and-trade to acquire him. The problem there is that Utah would have to take on near-equal salary for the first year and that would potentially push them over the luxury tax threshold (assuming Mehmet Okur returns and the Jazz sign Paul Millsap to a lucrative deal).

Assuming the Pistons don’t step up with a deal averaging $10-$11 million, Boozer’s absolute worst case is signing a one-year mid-level deal (~$5.8 million), which would cost him about $7 million this season. If he plays another year in Utah, he’ll have the opportunity to prove that he can stay healthy and would join the vaunted free agent class of 2010, where there will be a greater market for his services. Teams are saving up for that summer, so Boozer would be a nice consolation prize for those teams hoping to add Chis Bosh or Amare Stoudemire.

The downside of staying in Utah for another season is the lack of the security. Is it better to sign a five-year deal at a discount (say, $11 million per season) and have a guaranteed $55 million or play another year in Utah and risk a career-ending injury for the prospect of signing for an extra $10-$15 million in 2010? There’s a saying — a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

This is the quandary that Boozer is in today. It’s a tough call.

His decision is due in a few hours.

Let’s hope not, but according to the Rockets’ team physician, it’s a possibility.

“At this point, the injury has the potential for him missing this next season and could be career threatening,” team physician Tom Clanton said, according to the Houston Chronicle. “One of the things we are trying to get is a consensus opinion on that, to make certain there is no option we are overlooking that would provide an earlier return or would be an option for treatment that he would prefer rather than doing additional surgery.”

While Yao could face surgery to insert a pin in the foot, a bone graft or even realignment of the foot, but the team is trying immobilization for right now. They are hoping that the fracture heals on its own.

“He has no tenderness, no swelling, no redness,” Clanton said, according to the Chronicle. “When he came back in, he was feeling like everything was perfect, and he would start rehabilitation and get ready to play. The findings on the CT were shocking for him and for us.”

This is obviously a huge blow to the franchise. Yao was expected to miss 8-12 weeks, but the CT revealed that his foot was not healing properly.

Injuries have derailed an otherwise stellar career. Yao missed just two games in his first three seasons, but since then, he has only appeared in 72% of his team’s regular season games.

Unless the guy is a major disappointment, a team will usually extend the qualifying offer required to make a player a restricted free agent. In the last year of their rookie contract, players are generally still affordable, so average to decent players usually end up as RFAs for a year before hitting unrestricted free agency the following summer.

I told you all of that to tell you this — the Bucks elected not to make the qualifying offer of $4.6 million to perimeter-oriented power forward Charlie Villanueva, who averaged 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds last season. In 47 games as a starter, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.3 rebounds. He can now sign with any team he likes and the Bucks will receive no compensation. I expect that he’ll garner at least a mid-level deal on the open market. His defense is definitely suspect, but he’s young (24) and can really put the ball in the hole.

I sure hope that general manager John Hammond explored all of his options before making this decision. It seems like Villanueva holds enough value to pry a first round pick or a prospect away from a contender (how about a J.J. Hickson-for-Villanueva swap with Cleveland?), but this decision, coupled with the Richard Jefferson giveaway last week indicate that the Bucks are in serious cost cutting mode.

The good news is that, with the move, Milwaukee should be better able to match offers for Ramon Sessions, who is a TSR fave.

Yesterday, I ranked the top unrestricted free agents of 2009, but now it’s time to look at this summer’s crop of restricted free agents (RFA). Teams can sign an RFA to an offer sheet, then his team has seven days to match that offer to retain him. If the player doesn’t sign an offer sheet and can’t come to terms on a new contract with his current team, then he will play for a year for the qualifying offer and then become an unrestricted free agent the following summer.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

1. Paul Millsap, PF (24)
PER: 18.71
In his third year, this former second round pick had the best season of his career. He averaged 13.5 points and 8.6 rebounds, while shooting better than 53% from the field. While Carlos Boozer was out in December and January, the Jazz got a preview of what this kid can do when he gets starter’s minutes. He was a 17/11 guy during those two months, but the Jazz only went 11-13 in games in which Millsap played during that span. His camp expects a deal similar to the one David Lee is asking for, so something in the $10 million per season range. Is he worth it? Probably. And from the sound of it, the Jazz plan on offering him a deal that will keep him from testing the market. If he does explore his options, it may pay off as the Thunder and Pistons are rumored to have interest.
Value: $9.5 - $10.5 million per year

2. David Lee, PF (26)
PER: 19.07
GM Donnie Walsh said that the Knicks’ picking Jordan Hill in this year’s draft has nothing to do with Lee, but the two play the same position, so of course it’s going to have an effect on how the Knicks and Lee each view their relationship. The other issue is that two of the Knicks’ targets in 2010 are Chris Bosh and Amare Stoudemire might also play the same position as Lee, though Mike D’Antoni would likely play either at center, allowing Lee to play power forward. He gets most of his points off the glass, so he’d be a good fit with either of those guys. The Knicks are projected to have about $35 million in cap space heading into the summer of 2010 and whatever deal they sign Lee to will cut into that. If they want to keep Lee and sign two big-name free agents, then they’re going to have to rid themselves of either Jared Jeffries or Eddy Curry prior to 2010. I like Lee, but he’s not a guy that you can give the ball to on the block and expect him to score, and that limits his value somewhat as a big man. The Thunder, Kings, Grizzlies, Raptors and Pistons could all make a serious run at Lee, though anytime a team tries to poach a restricted free agent, it’s a delicate balance between offering him enough to convince the other team to let him go, while getting a reasonable deal at the same time.
Value: $9.0 - $10.0 million per year.

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Most people in America, and especially Los Angeles (thanks to bus advertisements everywhere), know that David Beckham plays for the LA Galaxy. The only problem is that he kinda doesn’t. With all his English national team World Cup qualifiers and his loan to AC Milan, his MLS season is about as long as a cocktail weenie.

After the tragic death of Michael Jackson last week, David Beckham’s future in American soccer has been called into question. How could these two seemingly unrelated things be related? Well, SPORTSbyBROOKS has all the answers. Due to spatial constraints, let me give you a quick summation: AEG is a corporation operating concert venues/events worldwide, including all those canceled comeback concerts in England with Michael Jackson. Davd Beckham has been a flop since arriving in America, his potential for igniting interest in soccer in America has fizzled. He is now a financial drain on his team.

And, of course, the owners of the Los Angeles Galaxy that could really use the cash on this year’s balance sheet to offset losses in other parts of the business… AEG.

On top of it all, the best thing that could happen to the popularity of U.S. soccer is happening today in South Africa as the U.S. men’s national team takes on Brazil for the chance to hoist their first international soccer cup in modern history. AEG didn’t need to invest in David Beckham to raise soccer’s profile in America; they needed to invest in U.S. Soccer. (Or better insurance.)

Hell yeah. Despite our loss to Brazil in the final today. I can’t agree more with Brooks’ sentiment that we should look to America for American soccer. While we don’t have nearly the farm system of the global soccer powerhouses like Spain and Brazil, the infrastructure is certainly there, as well as the ability. Remember when American ice hockey was laughable when compared to the USSR? Neither do I, being born in ‘82 and all. But I saw the movie. Well hey, where did that go?

Having been a fan of American soccer since the ‘96 (update: my bad, 94) World Cup here, I’ve never been able to talk much about it with other people. This past week, once I told them what had happened with Spain, I’ve never felt as much interest and enthusiasm for an upcoming soccer match as this morning. Keep it up America (and the LA Galaxy’s real hero, Landon Donovan) and good luck next month when we play our southern rivals, Mexico.

And as long as we’re on the subject of Michael Jackson and USA soccer, you gotta check out this memorial jersey.

While watching the biggest game in U.S. soccer history during a Lions Club party at Far Bar (they never let me down because they always let me in) I couldn’t help but wonder what the strange background noise was throughout the broadcast. At first I thought the nice grandma next to me had fainted into her Wasabi Fries, but thanks to Martin Rogers at Yahoo! Sports I now know (psst…you can hear for yourself in Rogers’ article), and dread its upcoming World Cup preponderance:

If you’re still not familiar with the term, the vuvuzela is the instrument that provides that horrendous droning, foghorn-like sound that has assaulted eardrums as a constant accompaniment to coverage of the World Cup warmup event. And you haven’t heard the last of it.

The vuvuzela is seen as an integral part of the soccer-watching experience in South Africa and FIFA has already given the green light to its use in next year’s World Cup finals. That could mean a month’s worth of mind-numbing horn blowing as the musical backdrop to the greatest tournament in soccer.

Something clearly needs to be done — but without offending the South African people or interfering with their proud traditions.

Agreed. Goodness gracious, is this the sound I’m going to have to listen to for the 20-some games I’ll watch next summer? I know it’s a different culture over there and we always need to be respectful of the traditions of others, but oh man, it’s like playing a match in a bee hive. I hope the droves of new viewers in America of the next World Cup aren’t turned away from the sport when they hear it for 3 hours.

Once the draft is over, the next step of the NBA offseason is the free agency period. Negotiations start July 1, but players have to wait until July 8 to actually sign on the dotted line. Due to the economy, this promises to be an interesting summer, as more franchises seem to be trying to cut payroll than add talent. There are eight teams with significant cap space this summer, and there’s no guarantee that they’ll be willing to use it. Teams that are over the cap can add good players in two ways: 1) they can sign a player to the Mid-Level Exception (MLE), which will be around $5.8 million per season (and can be split up between two or more players), or 2) they can work out a sign-and-trade with the player’s old team.

Below is a list of the top unrestricted free agents this summer. These are players who can sign with whomever they like. They’re ranked in order of total value, which is based on overall talent, age, injury history and cost.

For each player, I’ll provide his position, age, Player Efficiency Rating (PER) and an estimate of what kind of contract he’s likely to sign.

1. Carlos Boozer, PF (27 years-old)
PER: 17.28
At press time, Boozer hasn’t officially opted out, but he is expected to. He can play another year for $12.3 million, but he thinks he’s due for a raise, and I don’t think he’s going to get the kind of raise he’s expecting. Boozer is one of the top 20 players in the league when healthy, but it’s that whole “when healthy” part that’s the problem. Over the past five seasons, he has missed a third of his team’s games. At 27, he’s in his prime, and assuming he has the right supporting cast, I think he can be one of a twosome or threesome on a championship-caliber team. Boozer may not get a raise this summer, but he could get long-term security. The Pistons, Raptors, Kings and Thunder all have the space to make a run at him, but Sacramento and OKC might consider themselves too far away from contending to add a big piece like Boozer. The Pistons seem like the best fit, but they are rumored to have more interest in Ben Gordon. There’s always the possibility that another team works out a sign-and-trade with Utah, but I don’t think anyone is going to give him a max deal, not in this economy.
Value: $12.0 - $13.0 million per year

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