I haven’t been very impressed with CBS’s March Madness On Demand thus far. I have a broadband connection, but the feed cuts out with regularity and I have been getting video that is 15-20 minutes old both today and yesterday. It’s free, and that’s good, but the MMOD people should talk to the NBA League Pass Broadband people and get an engine that works. I can watch three games at once on NBA League Pass Broadband.
Here are a couple of examples of how the picture quality of CBS’s March Madness On Demand can vary. Both shots are supposedly “high quality.” (Click the picture for a bigger version.)
After a few minutes, the picture cleared up and looked like this:
Earlier this week, I identified a few games that seemed like good value plays based on the Sagarin ratings for the two teams. St. Mary’s won easily, while Georgia Tech and Utah State are going today. Let’s take a look at Saturday’s games.
Kansas State (-4.5) vs. BYU
Sagarin says this game is basically a pick ‘em with the Wildcats having a slight (0.7-point) advantage. So that means that the Cougars should be a good value here since they’re getting 4.5 points. Based on what I saw of BYU against UNLV and Florida, I am not too impressed with the Cougars, so I don’t really like this bet.
Villanova (-4.5) vs. St. Mary’s
Sagarin gives the Wildcatsa 2.2-point advantage, so the Gaels look like a solid bet value-wise. I also like this bet with the eye test. Villanova has good guards, but so do the Gaels, and St. Mary’s also has 6′11″ Omar Samhan down low. Villanova doesn’t have much on the front line. Not only do I like the Gaels plus the points, but they also have a good chance to win this one outright.
Kentucky (-9) vs. Wake Forest
Sagarin pegs Kentucky as a 6.7-point favorite, so Wake Forest would be the value pick here. Can they keep it close? Sure, but they’re coming off a late overtime win on Thursday and might be a little worn down. I’d take a pass.
Tennessee (-8.5) vs. Ohio
Sagarin says the Vols are an 8.3-point favorite, so at first glance, this line doesn’t look too far off. But Ohio has battled adversity all year and it was only after the last couple of weeks that the Bobcats really came together. Ohio has now won six straight and eight of its last nine, including Thursday’s big win against Georgetown. Tennesee is great at defending the three, but those are a lot of points for the Vols to give.
Some are calling the first day of March Madness the greatest opening day of all time. Five double-digit seeds — #14 Ohio, #13 Murray State, #11 Washington, #11 Old Dominion and #10 St. Mary’s — advanced, one off the first day record of six set almost twenty years ago. Three games — BYU/Florida, Villanova/Robert Morris and Texas/Wake Forest — went into overtime, and it took BYU double-overtime to finally put away the Gators. There were only two overtime games during the entire 2009 tournament.
In total, nine of the 16 games were either went into overtime and/or were decided by five points or less. Three others — Baylor/Sam Houston, Ohio/G-Town and Butler/UTEP — were compelling for other reasons. Baylor had to fend off a feisty #14 seed in the waning minutes, and Butler was down to UTEP by six at halftime before unleashing a barrage of threes in the second half. The Bulldogs hit eight threes in the first 12 minutes during a 28-6 run that left the Miners wondering what the hell happened.
And Ohio…it’s not like the Bobcats looked like a quality mid-major primed for an upset heading into the tournament. They were 7-9…yes, 7-9…in the MAC heading into the conference tourney where they needed four straight wins — including impressive victories over regular season champ Kent State and defending champion Akron — just to get a bid after battling key injuries and suspensions all season.
Again, it was the long ball that was the great equalizer. The Bobcats hit 13-23 threes against the Hoyas, but most of the damage was done by Ohio’s starting backcourt, junior Armon Bassett (5-10 3PT, 32 points) and freshman D.J. Cooper (5-8 3PT, 23 points). And it’s not like Ohio was a prolific three-point shooting team coming in. The Bobcats made about 36% on the season, which put them #89 in the country. Their 7.3 made threes ranked #65 in the country.
The vaunted Big East had a pretty rough go of it, losing three teams — G-Town, Notre Dame and Marquette — and almost losing another (Villanova). That doesn’t bode particularly well for my Final Four picks (Syracuse, West Virginia).
From a bracket standpoint, it wasn’t a great day for my picks, but it wasn’t a disaster either. I went 9-7, but only lost one Sweet Sixteen team (Georgetown), while nailing a pretty big upset (Murray State) that knocked out a #4-seed Vanderbilt team that was a fairly popular Sweet Sixteen pick. Moreover, five of those seven losses — UNLV, SDSU, Texas, Marquette and Notre Dame — were by three points or less. Conversely, I won five tight games — Murray State, BYU, New Mexico, Baylor and Villanova — so I don’t feel too bad.
The mission for the first two days is not to lose any Elite Eight or Final Four teams, and as few Sweet Sixteen teams as possible. Even with all of these upsets, 15 of my Sweet Sixteen teams are still alive, and my Elite Eight and Final Four picks are in solid shape…at least for now. This is a marathon, not a sprint.
From a statistical standpoint, it wasn’t a terribly good day for Jeff Sagarin’s ratings, which went just 7-3 in games where one team had at least a three-point advantage in his Predictor rating. Then again, two of those losses — Vanderbilt and Texas — came on the last shot, so the record could have easily gone 9-1 (or 4-6, had BYU, New Mexico, Baylor and Nova lost their tight games).
On the other hand, Ken Pomeroy’s Pythagorean win percent went 7-1 in games where it gave the favorite a 70%+ chance to win, 0-1 in the 65%-70% range, and 5-2 in the 50%-60% range. (There were no games on Thursday that fell in the 60%-65% range.)
All in all, it was a helluva ride, and Friday is going to be hard-pressed to match Thursday’s excitement. I’m particularly looking forward to Temple/Cornell, Purdue/Siena, Xavier/Minnesota and Oklahoma St./Georgia Tech, but really, there are a number of great matchups throughout the day.
I’ll be doing a running diary of the first day of March Madness, so feel free to comment or ask questions throughout the day.
8:38 AM (PT): We’re tipping off with two good matchups (Notre Dame/Old Dominion, BYU/Florida) and a probable snoozer (Villanova/Robert Morris). Jeff Sagarin says that Old Dominion is a really tight matchup, but his numbers don’t take into account how well the Irish are playing of late. Ken Pomeroy’s ratings show BYU to be a top 10 team, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against an SEC team that got new life on Sunday. When I saw BYU play UNLV in the MWC semis, I wasn’t very impressed, but in all fairness, it was essentially a road game for the Cougars. The numbers say they are highly efficient offensively and defensively.
After the 2010 NCAA Tournament bracket was released, there were some that complained about how the committee paired too many mid-majors against each other in the first round.
There are 15 non-BCS schools on seed lines 5-12 in this bracket. Eight of them are playing each other. Thanks, NCAA. Just what the fans want.
If eight are playing each other, there are seven teams that are playing BCS schools. As Larry Brown Sports somewhat correctly points out, part of the reason there are four mid-major/mid-major matchups is because there were several mid-majors that had very good seasons and were rewarded with high seeds:
Moreover, if you’re rewarding the smaller-schools for having good seasons, then you have to give them a high seed, and they will accordingly be matched up with another small school. That’s what happened with New Mexico, Temple, Butler, and Xavier. Drop those teams down in seeding and then you’re really being unfair, but at least you get a mid-major against a BCS school, right? Pointing out the few mid-major vs. mid-major matchups also ignores the several other cases where mid-majors play BCS schools in the first round. So Gonzaga playing Florida State, Xavier getting Minnesota, Notre Dame drawing Old Dominion, BYU getting Florida, Houston drawing Maryland, and San Diego State having a chance to upset Tennessee means nothing?
That’s true to a point, but it’s also about where the BCS schools are seeded. No teams from power conferences are seeded #12, two (Minnesota, Washington) are seeded #11 and are playing one mid-major (Xavier) and one BCS school (Marquette), and three (Missouri, Florida and Georgia Tech) are seeded #10 and are playing two BCS schools (Clemson, Oklahoma St.) and one mid-major (BYU).
Basically, if you’re mid-major was good enough to get a #5 seed (Butler and Temple) you’re going to get a matchup with a mid-major or small school #12 seed (UTEP and Cornell) that the committee doesn’t deem as strong as teams like Minnesota, Washington, Missouri, Florida or Georgia Tech. If you’re Butler or Temple, do you want to play one of those teams in the first round? My guess is that the Bulldogs and the Owls are relatively happy with their matchups (UTEP and Cornell, respectively).
You may have noticed that I differentiated between a team like UTEP and a team like Cornell. All non-BCS conferences are not the same. The term “mid-major” is somewhat ambiguous and quite fluid. I would define a mid-major conference as one that would get one non-automatic bid in the NCAA tournament during a good season (i.e. a non-BCS conference that often gets 2+ bids counting the conference’s automatic bid). Obviously, other factors like program funding, conference-wide attendance and conference revenue could also be considered.
The “mid-major” wiki page lists the following conferences as mid-majors:
* Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10)
* Big West Conference (BWC)
* Colonial Athletic Association (CAA)
* Conference USA (C-USA)
* Horizon League
* Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (MAAC)
* Mid-American Conference (MAC)
* Missouri Valley Conference (MVC)
* Mountain West Conference (MWC)
* Ohio Valley Conference (OVC)
* West Coast Conference (WCC)
* Western Athletic Conference (WAC)
A quick look at Jeff Sagarin’s college basketball ratings shows that these 12 conferences occupy spots #7 through #16, with the Big West ranked #18 and the Ohio Valley ranked #22.
My point is that all non-BCS schools aren’t built the same. There are two other groups — mid-majors and small schools — that make up the rest of the conferences and it’s somewhat fluid between the two. So if Cornell upsets Temple, it wouldn’t be one mid-major knocking off the other, it would be a small school (from the Ivy League) knocking off a mid-major power.
Hard to argue with any of his picks, but I don’t think Villanova is going to the Final Four this year. Yes, their guards are good, but they’re lacking size now that Dante Cunningham is gone.
The NCAA Tournament starts tomorrow, so I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the first two days worth of games and compare the line with Jeff Sagarin’s ratings (that I used to make my bracket picks) and see if there were any games that stood out as good values. Here’s what I found:
The idea is that if a line differs greatly from the Sagarin line, and the Sagarin lines are accurate, then it should be a good value wager. Of the 31 games (Duke/Arkansas-Pine Bluff was off the books), 11 had lines that were within one point of the Sagarin difference between the two teams. Nine were between 1.0-2.0 points away from the Sagarin line. Eight were within 2.0-3.0 points away, two were 3.0-4.0 points away and just one was more than four points away. Here’s a look at the games that differed the most from the Sagarin line, in descending order:
Richmond (-2.5) vs. St. Mary’s
Sagarin says that the Gaels actually have almost a two-point advantage over the Spiders, so the value bet here would be St. Mary’s +2.5. My problem with this wager is that St. Mary’s has to fly cross country to Rhode Island and play at 11:50 AM PT. Every team is different, but jet lag and Circadian rhythms are tough to quantify. Playing at noon probably isn’t going to have as big of an effect as tipping-off at, say, 10 PM.
Oklahoma State (-1.5) vs. Georgia Tech
Sagarin pegs the Yellow Jackets as a 2.3-point favorite in this game, so the line appears to be “off” by almost four points. Georgia Tech +1.5 would be the value bet here, and it looks pretty solid. Freshman Derrick Favors is really coming on, so if Georgia Tech can keep its turnovers under control, they should be able to advance.
Notre Dame (-2.5) vs. Old Dominion
The Monarchs are actually a 1.0-point favorite according to Sagarin, but the Irish are playing well of late, so I wouldn’t recommend this bet. Prior to losing to WVU by two in the Big East tourney, the Irish rattled off six straight wins against Pittsburgh (twice), Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall and a desperate UConn team. Notre Dame is playing a slower style that suits its personnel.
California vs. Louisville (pick ‘em)
Sagarin pegs the Golden Bears as 2.9-point favorites, but it’s tough to go with Cal here seeing as they have to fly cross country to Jacksonville. However, the game is at 9:45 PM ET, which might play with the Cardinals’ Circadian rhythms a bit in the second half. Most kids aren’t used to playing basketball at 11 PM at night. To the Cal players, it will seem like a 6:45 tip-off.
Purdue (-4) vs. Siena
Sagarin thinks the Boilermakers are a 6.7-point favorite, so to the computer, Purdue is the value pick here. But the numbers can’t account for the loss of Robbie Hummel, so I wouldn’t touch the Boilermakers with a 10-foot pole.
Texas A&M (-3) vs. Utah State
Sagarin only gives A&M a 0.3-point advantage, so Utah State is the value pick here. The game is in Spokane which would seem to support this wager. This one I like.
To recap, the three wagers that seem reasonable are St. Mary’s +2.5, Georgia Tech +1.5 and Utah State +3. Unfortunately, the St. Mary’s and Utah State picks go against my bracket picks. So it’s a good thing that betting on sports is illegal in most parts of the country, right?
CBS analyst and SI writer Seth Davis is partnering with Coke Zero in promoting their Department of Fannovation Brain Bracket, where 64 hand-picked ideas to improve the fan experience will go head-to-head in single elimination format until a winner is announced. (My favorite is the one where arenas would have actual working decibel monitors pop up on the big screen to encourage the crowd to make more noise.)
Seth took time out of his busy schedule this week to chat with TSR about Kentucky’s youth, Duke’s versatility, tournament expansion and even the NBA’s age-limit rule.
The Scores Report: Hey Seth, how are you doing?
Seth Davis: Doing all right, man, how are you doing?
TSR: Good to talk to you. It’s an exciting week of basketball.
SD: Yeah, it’s always good this time of year. It’s the best.
TSR: I just saw your video of your Final Four picks over at SI.com, and it turns out we have the same picks.
SD: That is definitely the most popular combination, it sounds like. I don’t know if that’s a good sign for you.
TSR: Yeah I don’t know either. Is there any pressure when you’re doing these picks, not to pick four #1 seeds?
SD: You know what, there kind of is. There’s a little bit of pressure to look for upsets, but I try to do what I honestly think, and in the past, I’m usually Mr. Upset, but looking at this bracket, I wasn’t feeling it. I wish I felt otherwise. It might surprise people to learn given how brilliant my picks are, when they hand me that bracket in the studio, before the selection show, I take about four minutes to fill out the whole thing. I just go with my instinct and go with what I see, and that’s where my pen led me.
It seems like as soon as the brackets were announced on Sunday, all of the pundits were circling the 5/12 matchup between Temple (A-10 champs) and Cornell (Ivy League champs) as an upset special. Here are two conflicting takes on the game from the Giant Killers blog and Eamonn Brennan at ESPN. First up is the GK blog:
We hate it when our model agrees with the pundits. So, allow us to say this: They’re jumping on our bandwagon, not the other way around. This is the most likely upset in the entire first round. Where do we start? How about from downtown? Cornell’s 88.4 GK rating (second-best in GK history) is in large part due to ridiculous 3-point shooting. Not only do the Big Red lead the country at 43.8 percent shooting from beyond the arc; 3s also account for 39.1 percent of their scoring. That type of high-risk approach signifies most successful GKs.
Temple can battle Cornell in this area because the Owls do have the nation’s second-toughest 3-point field goal defense (28.1 percent). However, the Owls have other problems. They don’t force turnovers (just 18.2 percent of opponents’ possessions, 286th in the country), and they grab offensive rebounds on only 33 percent of missed shots. What does that mean? They let opponents maximize possessions, and with Cornell, those possessions are worth a lot. Add in that Cornell protects the ball (turnover percentage of 18.7) and keeps opponents off the offensive glass (just 30.2 percent), and you have even more reasons to believe in an upset.
Want one more? Cornell outscored its opponents by more than a dozen points per game this season, yet was outscored at the free throw line. That has a strong correlation toward Giant Killing success. The Big Red have everything necessary to leave the Owls asking “Who?”
