Ravens (3-0) at Patriots (2-1), 1:00PM ET
I still can’t get over the Falcons’ game plan (if you can call it that) to defense Tom Brady and the Patriots last week. Atlanta decided to drop seven defenders into coverage and allow Brady time to find open receivers, read The Great Gatsby cover to cover and figure out a way to help turn around the economy. Brady won’t be afforded that kind of time this week against the Ravens, who will no doubt bring extra defenders and use multiple fronts in efforts to confuse the New England QB. Baltimore isn’t going to allow the Pats to control the game on the ground either, and although the Ravens still have issues in their secondary, I like them pulling off an upset in Foxboro. For anyone who thought the Pats resolved their issues last week in a win over the Falcons, this game should prove otherwise.
Odds: Patriots –2.
Prediction: Ravens 31, Patriots 30.

Titans (0-3) at Jaguars (1-2), 1:00PM ET
The Titans are like that hot ex-girlfriend that dumped you three times but you foolishly keep going back to her hoping she’s changed. I’ve picked Tennessee to win the last two weeks and have been let down both times. Yet, here I am again, waiting to get my stomach kicked in. Jeff Fisher’s team is too good to fall to 0-4 and lose to an average Jacksonville team right? Right?! I think the Titans will play inspired this week, won’t make as many stupid mistakes as they did last Sunday against the Jets and will force David Garrard to beat them through the air by taking away Maurice Jones-Drew. If Tennessee losses this week, I promise not to pick the Titans the rest of the year. (Until she calls me at two in the morning drunk and looking for a place to stay…then I’ve got to let her in, right? Right?!)
Odds: Jaguars –3.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 17.

Jets (3-0) at Saints (3-0), 4:05PM ET
I know the marquee matchup of the week is the Monday night game between the Packers and Vikings. But to me, this the most intriguing game on the Week 4 schedule based on the Saints’ high-powered offense and the Jets’ ability to make opposing quarterbacks want to rip their hair out. Sean Payton vs. Rex Ryan is as good as it comes and I’m interested to see how New York game plans to stop Brees, who is off to a MVP-like start. The key to will be Pierre Thomas and the Saints’ running game. Believe it or not, the Jets want Brees and the Saints to throw the ball 40-plus times because that means they’ve become one-dimensional and New York’s front four can pin their ears back and rush the passer. But if NO can strike an offensive balance early, they’ll be fine offensively and then it’ll be up to the defense to stop red-hot rookie Mark Sanchez. I like the Saints to win, but the Jets to cover.
Odds: Saints –7.
Prediction: Saints 24, Jets 20.

Cowboys (2-1) at Broncos (3-0), 4:15PM ET
I don’t trust either of these teams. The Cowboys beat a bad Bucs team (by allowing 21 points), were defeated by the Giants at home and got an ugly, uninspiring victory over the Panthers last Monday night. The Broncos, meanwhile, are 3-0 with wins over such NFL juggernauts the Bengals (which was a gift thanks to Leon Hall), the Browns and the Raiders. But regardless of whom they were playing, Denver’s defense has been freaking outstanding. They’re limiting opponents to only 5.3 points per game, 214.7 yards per game and lead the NFL in total defense. While their offense is stagnant right now, Kyle Orton and company should only improve week to week under Josh McDaniels. Tony Romo hasn’t played well since Tampa, while running backs Marion Barber and Felix Jones are dealing with injuries. I like the Broncos to win straight up as home underdogs.
Odds: Cowboys –3.
Prediction: Broncos 27, Cowboys 23.

Season Totals:
Straight up: 5-3
Against the Spread: 2-6 (Fade! Fade!)

NFL Week 4 Point Spreads & Over Under Totals.

The moment every TSR reader has been waiting for is finally here: It’s time for me to hand out my Super Bowl pick.

I know, I know – you guys have been dying for this blog to come out since the Super Bowl XLIII matchup was set, but I wanted to take my time. I decided to go back and re-watch every single Arizona Cardinal and Pittsburgh Steeler game from this season in order to figure out each teams’ tendencies and therefore make the ultimate prediction.

But when I turned on my DVR to begin re-watching all the games I saw I had a couple of “Reno 911” episodes saved and I got lost in all the hilarity. (That Jim Dangle is one funny S.O.B.)

Needless to say, I didn’t re-watch one game, didn’t find one tendency and therefore my “ultimate prediction” is just going to be a flat out guess. Either way…

This is how I see Sunday’s big game playing out. The game will be tight for almost the entire first quarter, with both defenses playing well earlier on. The Steelers will strike first with a touchdown, then add a field goal to go up 10-0 midway through the second quarter. But thanks to the “don’t prevent the score” defense that every team seems to use right before halftime, Pittsburgh gives up a score right before Bruce Springsteen starts warming up, which in turn gives the Cardinals hope.

Your halftime score: an uneventful 10-7 Pittsburgh lead.

But the second half is where the action starts to heat up. All of a sudden the Steelers begin drumming up pressure and Kurt Warner has zero time to throw. Pittsburgh’s front seven starts suffocating Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower, all the while moving the pocket back so Warner can’t step up and deliver passes in a timely manner.

This leads to multiple sacks for the Steelers, which they turn into great field position. The Arizona defense, which in the first half had played damn near perfect football, starts to cave. Willie Parker starts finding open running lanes, which opens up the passing game for Ben Roethlisberger, who converts several third down conversions that essentially takes the life out of the Cards’ defense. Pittsburgh strikes twice for touchdowns in the third quarter, taking a 24-7 lead into the fourth.

Early in the fourth, Arizona offensive coordinator Todd Haley takes advantage of an overly aggressive Pittsburgh front seven and the Cardinals start attacking the edges and seams of the Steeler defense. All of a sudden, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breatson start to make plays in the open field and Warner gets into a rhythm. The Cards reach paydirt on a 1-yard James touchdown run and with still 11 minutes to play in the game, ‘Zona is still very much alive at 24-14.

Thanks to the offensive resurgence, the Cardinal defense forces a three and out and with the Pittsburgh defense still tired, Warner hits Fitzgerald on a reverse, pitch-back bomb to get the score within a field goal at 24-21 with seven minutes left to play.

But that’s as close as the Cards get to victory. Thanks to Parker, the Steelers drive into Arizona territory, eating up most of the clock. Big Ben then finds Heath Miller in the back of the end zone on a broken 3rd and 7 play to put Arizona away.

Super Bowl XLIII Final: Steelers 31, Cardinals 21.

Not that it matters because everything I just wrote will happen exactly as I laid it out, but feel free to post your score prediction for the game. Remember, only the people who don’t post a prediction are wrong…and those who predict the losing team to win.

Before I get to my Divisional Round Preview, I’d like to send all of the losers from Wild Card Weekend off the only way I know how: By jabbing them one final time.

Atlanta Falcons: Hey Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey, his name is Jerious Norwood. He’s #32 and he’s one of the best playmakers on your offense. Might want to think about using him more the next time an opposing defense figures out how to shut down Michael Turner.

Indianapolis Colts: Seven trips to the postseason in the last seven years and you only manage one Super Bowl appearance with a three-time MVP at quarterback? Dear Barbara…

Miami Dolphins: Chad, I love you man and I love your story this season. But you can’t force passes down field into double coverage and expect good things. You should have kept doing what you did all season and what you did in your first possession of the game – hit the high-percentage passes and let your receivers get the yardage.

Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone else scratch their head when Brad Childress declined a holding penalty on third down early in the first quarter that would have moved the Eagles on the edge of field goal range? Instead, it brought up forth down and David Akers drilled a 43-yarder to give Philly a 3-0 lead. Childress basically said, “I’m not sure if my defense can hold the Eagles on 3rd and 14 – better give up the field goal so we don’t give up a potential touchdown instead.” You never give your opponents points in the playoffs. Never. Not even a field goal. Force them back, force them to make a play and force them to earn the points.

Myself: I went 1-3 with my Wild Card Predictions last week. Seriously? You went with the Colts in the playoffs? A rookie in Matt Ryan? The Vikings over everyone’s sleeper team in the Eagles? You’re a freaking bum. (Ironically I went 3-1 in a family football pool because I came to my senses and picked San Diego and Philly.)

Moving on…

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Saturday, January 10, 4:30PM ET
Opening Odds: Titans –3
Over/Under: 34.5
Game Outlook:
No disrespect to the Giants and Eagles or any other team playing this weekend, but this is easily the best matchup on the divisional playoff schedule. Did you see what Ed Reed and the Ravens did to Chad Pennington and the Dolphins last week? They held them to only 276 total yards, forced five turnovers and surrendered only 52 rushing yards. And although they used a lot of gadget formations throughout the season, it’s not like Miami’s offense was a dud this year. Granted, the Titans have the seventh best rushing attack in the league and rookie Chris Johnson brings an added dimension to the field, but Mike Heimerdinger has his hands full this week trying to come up with a game plan to move the ball against a Baltimore defense allowing just over 15 points a game this season. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how rookie quarterback Joe Flacco does against the seventh best defense in the NFL. Flacco passed with flying colors last week while playing mistake-free and running for the game-clinching score in the fourth quarter. But he’ll have to do a hell of a lot more than complete 9 of 23 passes for 135 yards against a Tennessee defense that could have DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch back on their defensive line. If both players are in the lineup Saturday, Flacco is going to feel the heat up the middle and from the edges so he better get rid of the ball in a timely manner. Overall, this is the best defensive matchup of the year and this game will probably come down to who doesn’t turn the ball over.
X-Factor: Chris Johnson, Titans RB
The only time the Dolphins found success last week was when they used the Ravens’ aggressive style against them and slipped backs out in the flats. Pennington was able to hit Patrick Cobbs and company for seven to 10 yard gains and the Titans could employ the same method. Johnson is a homerun threat and more than capable of taking one to the house every play. Tennessee has to get the ball in this kid’s hands and force the Ravens to miss tackles in the open field, which they have the penchant for doing at times.
Prediction: Titans 16, Ravens 13.
I’m not going to bite on this potential upset. The Ravens’ defense is absolutely nasty, but Flacco worries me against a ball-hawking Tennessee secondary and I think the Titans are going to shut down Baltimore’s running game. This game comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes and I’ll take a veteran in Kerry Collins over the rook Flacco. (Word to the wise though, Kerry – stay away from Ed Reed’s side if you can.)

Arizona Cardinals (9-7) at Carolina Panthers (12-4)
Saturday, January 10, 8:15PM ET
Opening Odds: Panthers –10
Over/Under: 48
Game Outlook:
There’s no sense avoiding the obvious: the Cardinals are a different team at home than they are on the road. The Cardinals played an inspired game last week in their win over the Falcons, but the Panthers aren’t going to make the same mistakes Atlanta did. Unlike the Falcons, Carolina will attack the edges of Arizona’s defense with the dynamic running duo of DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart. And for as well as the Cards played against the run last Saturday, it’s highly doubtful they do it two weeks in a row, especially considering that this time they’ll be on the road. Jake Delhomme isn’t going to be as awestruck as rookie Matt Ryan was either, so don’t expect Arizona to be handed three gift turnovers like they were last week. Granted, the Cardinals did play the Panthers tough in Carolina earlier this year and probably should have beaten them, but the Cats are well rested and their defense is playing better now than it was in the middle of the season. Look for the Panthers to establish their running game early, but also get playmaker Steve Smith involved on their first two offensive possessions. Carolina loves to run zero-screens to Smith to see if he can break one early, and he just might against a defense that will be more concerned with stopping the run. Another factor working in the Panthers’ favor is that Anquan Boldin continues to be hampered by injuries. If he can’t be effective, Carolina will load up to stop the run (which Atlanta failed to do) and blanket Larry Fitzgerald in coverage. The Falcons were unable to get pressure on Kurt Warner, but Carolina won’t make the same mistake. Arizona OT Mike Gandy won’t be as lucky as he was last week playing a hobbled John Abraham, because Julius Peppers is revving to go.
X-Factor: Steve Smith, Panthers WR
Defenses try to double and triple-team this guy and he still winds up making plays. You can’t stop him – you can only hope to limit him from making game-changing plays. If the Panthers can run the ball effectively, Smith is going to have a huge day because the play action pass will open up.
Prediction: Panthers 35, Cardinals 24.
Although Arizona burned me last week when I predicted them to lose to the Falcons, I think everything that worked for the Cardinals last week will go against them this Saturday. They won’t be able to run the ball, Warner is going to see more pressure and the defense won’t shut down Williams and Stewart like they did Turner.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-6-1) at New York Giants (12-4)
Sunday, January 11, 1:00PM ET
Opening Odds: Giants -4
Over/Under: 40
Game Outlook:
I wrote about it Sunday after the Eagles beat the Vikings and I’ll write about it again: this is not a matchup the Giants wanted. Philadelphia is brimming with confidence right now, has already beaten the Giants in New York once this season and is playing incredibly well defensively. The G-Men won’t admit it, but their fans will – they would have rather played the Cardinals this weekend than NFC East rival Philadelphia. Either way, they’ve got the Eagles and now the defending champs will have to defend their title the hard way. This game will come down to two things: 1) Brandon Jacobs and 2) protecting Eli Manning. If the Giants can get Jacobs and the running game going, it’ll help neutralize what Eagle defensive coordinator Jim Johnson does best: blitz. But if Jacobs is ineffective, the Eagles are going to send the house every play and pressure Manning, who can look like a Super Bowl winner one moment and Henry Burris the next. Not having a playmaker at receiver has hurt the Giants over the past couple weeks. Their win over the Panthers in Week 16 was inspiring, but their receivers aren’t making big plays and that’s a problem going against a secondary that is playing incredibly well right now. As for Philly, they have to stop the run. They allowed the Vikings to rush for close to 150 yards last Saturday and they were fortunate that Tarvaris Jackson couldn’t make enough plays in the passing game to beat them. If the Eagles can’t stop the run again this week, they can rest assure that Manning will beat them, even with the lack of a playmaker at receiver. They need to stuff the run, pressure Eli and get his confidence down immediately. They also need better production from Brian Westbrook, who couldn’t get going against a very good Minnesota front seven. Donovan McNabb has played extremely well over the past month, but he needs Westbrook to open things up for him so the Giants don’t just pin their ears back and pressure him into mistakes.
X-Factor: Brandon Jacobs RB Giants
If he can be effective, he’ll take the pressure off Manning and the Giants will move on. If he can’t, the Eagles win this one in a defensive struggle.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Giants 16.
I didn’t bite on the Ravens upsetting the Titans, but I will here. The Giants haven’t looked sharp in over a month and losing Burress hurt them more than they’ll admit. McNabb seems to be playing looser since being benched at Baltimore and Jim Johnson beats Kevin Gilbride in the battle of the coordinators.

San Diego Chargers (8-8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
Sunday, January 11, 4:45PM ET
Opening Odds: Steelers -6
Over/Under: 38
Game Outlook:
The Chargers provided the upset of Wild Card Weekend in knocking off the Colts, as Darren Sproles has emerged as the next young playmaker in San Diego’s backfield. Chances are we haven’t seen the last of him either, because word is that LaDainian Tomlinson will be out the rest of the playoffs with a groin injury. Defensively for the Chargers, coordinator Ron Rivera has had massive impact since taking over for Ted Cottrell midseason and now San Diego is playing with more confidence than earlier in the year. The biggest turnaround has been in the secondary, which had been shredded earlier in the season but has since come together and even held Peyton Manning in check the late in the game last Saturday. The true test for the Chargers this week is keeping Ben Roethlisberger (who will play despite receiving a concussion being concussed in Week 17) from making plays on third down. Teams have gotten to Big Ben, but he’s often burned them by escaping the pressure while keeping his eyes down field and making plays in the passing game. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is being held together by duct tape, so it’ll be interesting to see if Rivera can drum up a pass rush with his front seven and possibly force Roethlisberger to make mistakes like he did in the Steelers’ loss to the Titans a few weeks ago. Offensively for San Diego, if Sproles can’t find running room against the best defensive defense in the league, the game will be placed directly on quarterback Philip Rivers’ shoulders. Antonio Gates has been hobbled of late, but should play. Watch for the Steelers to blanket him in coverage and force Rivers to go to Chris Chambers and his other receivers. Rivers can’t make mistakes this weekend or else the Steeler defense will eat him alive and the wild ride will be over with for the Chargers. Anyone expecting a Pittsburgh romp will be sorely mistaken because this game should be tight throughout. This game also has some added intrigue because when these two teams met earlier this season, the Steelers came away with an 11-10 victory, which was the first 11-10 final in NFL history. Of course the final score should have been 18-10 because Troy Polamalu scored a defensive touchdown in the waning seconds of the game, but the officials blew a forward-lateral call and the score came off the board, resulting in the 11-10 finish. It was one of the most bizarre plays of the season, which incidentally cost gamblers millions of dollars.
X-Factor: Troy Polamalu, Steelers S.
Any chance I get to write about a playmaking safety, the better. Much like the Ravens’ Ed Reed, Polamalu is a game-changer and he made the catch of the year in the Steelers’ win against the Chargers earlier this season. He’s the type of defender that can cover the entire field and there’s no doubt he’ll make a play or two to shift the momentum of the game in Pittsburgh’s favor.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Chargers 13.
Although this is definitely another game San Diego can win, I don’t see them moving the ball as well as they did against Indy. The Steelers have issues, but their defense should win this one for them.

BOSTON 8-5
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 4-1
SAN ANTONIO 15-2
DETROIT 15-2
PHOENIX 10-1
NEW ORLEANS 16-1
UTAH 18-1
DALLAS 20-1
ORLANDO 30-1
CLEVELAND 36-1
HOUSTON 36-1
DENVER 50-1
WASHINGTON 55-1
TORONTO 100-1
PHILADELPHIA 150-1
ATLANTA 150-1

So which team to take? I’m not much of a betting man, but I don’t remember the last time you could get 16-1 odds on the #2 seed in the West. In fact, I like the odds on New Orleans, Phoenix, Utah and Dallas – four teams with a legitimate shot to make the Finals. Utah probably the hottest team in the West and their odds are a little inflated after a poor late-season performance against the Spurs.

In the East, there doesn’t seem to be much value in the odds for Boston or Detroit. Orlando’s odds are a little tempting, just because they do have a decent shot at reaching the Finals, and if you already have them at 30-1, you can take their Western Conference opponent before the Finals to give yourself a nice payday no matter who wins.

As for the Celtics, there isn’t much sense in taking 8-5 odds right now. If they do make the Finals, they probably won’t be big favorites, so you’ll be able to get close to even money at that point – why risk it now?

ESPN’s numbers guy, John Hollinger, predicts a Celtics/Jazz matchup in the Finals, so those Utah odds are looking pretty solid. He has the Hornets at #4 and the Suns at #5, so it looks like there is some value in those middle teams out West.

For free baseball picks and to listen to an hysterically funny and informative daily webcast please visit us atwww.madwinners.com
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For free baseball picks and to listen to an hysterically funny and informative daily webcast please visit us atwww.madwinners.com
SPECIAL OFFER: Pay just $39 and get all plays in all sports for 30 days!!!

For free baseball picks and to listen to an hysterically funny and informative daily webcast please visit us atwww.madwinners.com
SPECIAL OFFER: Pay just $39 and get all plays in all sports for 30 days!!!