Ravens (3-0) at Patriots (2-1), 1:00PM ET
I still can’t get over the Falcons’ game plan (if you can call it that) to defense Tom Brady and the Patriots last week. Atlanta decided to drop seven defenders into coverage and allow Brady time to find open receivers, read The Great Gatsby cover to cover and figure out a way to help turn around the economy. Brady won’t be afforded that kind of time this week against the Ravens, who will no doubt bring extra defenders and use multiple fronts in efforts to confuse the New England QB. Baltimore isn’t going to allow the Pats to control the game on the ground either, and although the Ravens still have issues in their secondary, I like them pulling off an upset in Foxboro. For anyone who thought the Pats resolved their issues last week in a win over the Falcons, this game should prove otherwise.
Odds: Patriots –2.
Prediction: Ravens 31, Patriots 30.

Titans (0-3) at Jaguars (1-2), 1:00PM ET
The Titans are like that hot ex-girlfriend that dumped you three times but you foolishly keep going back to her hoping she’s changed. I’ve picked Tennessee to win the last two weeks and have been let down both times. Yet, here I am again, waiting to get my stomach kicked in. Jeff Fisher’s team is too good to fall to 0-4 and lose to an average Jacksonville team right? Right?! I think the Titans will play inspired this week, won’t make as many stupid mistakes as they did last Sunday against the Jets and will force David Garrard to beat them through the air by taking away Maurice Jones-Drew. If Tennessee losses this week, I promise not to pick the Titans the rest of the year. (Until she calls me at two in the morning drunk and looking for a place to stay…then I’ve got to let her in, right? Right?!)
Odds: Jaguars –3.
Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 17.

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The moment every TSR reader has been waiting for is finally here: It’s time for me to hand out my Super Bowl pick.

I know, I know – you guys have been dying for this blog to come out since the Super Bowl XLIII matchup was set, but I wanted to take my time. I decided to go back and re-watch every single Arizona Cardinal and Pittsburgh Steeler game from this season in order to figure out each teams’ tendencies and therefore make the ultimate prediction.

But when I turned on my DVR to begin re-watching all the games I saw I had a couple of “Reno 911� episodes saved and I got lost in all the hilarity. (That Jim Dangle is one funny S.O.B.)

Needless to say, I didn’t re-watch one game, didn’t find one tendency and therefore my “ultimate prediction� is just going to be a flat out guess. Either way…

This is how I see Sunday’s big game playing out. The game will be tight for almost the entire first quarter, with both defenses playing well earlier on. The Steelers will strike first with a touchdown, then add a field goal to go up 10-0 midway through the second quarter. But thanks to the “don’t prevent the score� defense that every team seems to use right before halftime, Pittsburgh gives up a score right before Bruce Springsteen starts warming up, which in turn gives the Cardinals hope.

Your halftime score: an uneventful 10-7 Pittsburgh lead.

But the second half is where the action starts to heat up. All of a sudden the Steelers begin drumming up pressure and Kurt Warner has zero time to throw. Pittsburgh’s front seven starts suffocating Edgerrin James and Tim Hightower, all the while moving the pocket back so Warner can’t step up and deliver passes in a timely manner.

This leads to multiple sacks for the Steelers, which they turn into great field position. The Arizona defense, which in the first half had played damn near perfect football, starts to cave. Willie Parker starts finding open running lanes, which opens up the passing game for Ben Roethlisberger, who converts several third down conversions that essentially takes the life out of the Cards’ defense. Pittsburgh strikes twice for touchdowns in the third quarter, taking a 24-7 lead into the fourth.

Early in the fourth, Arizona offensive coordinator Todd Haley takes advantage of an overly aggressive Pittsburgh front seven and the Cardinals start attacking the edges and seams of the Steeler defense. All of a sudden, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breatson start to make plays in the open field and Warner gets into a rhythm. The Cards reach paydirt on a 1-yard James touchdown run and with still 11 minutes to play in the game, ‘Zona is still very much alive at 24-14.

Thanks to the offensive resurgence, the Cardinal defense forces a three and out and with the Pittsburgh defense still tired, Warner hits Fitzgerald on a reverse, pitch-back bomb to get the score within a field goal at 24-21 with seven minutes left to play.

But that’s as close as the Cards get to victory. Thanks to Parker, the Steelers drive into Arizona territory, eating up most of the clock. Big Ben then finds Heath Miller in the back of the end zone on a broken 3rd and 7 play to put Arizona away.

Super Bowl XLIII Final: Steelers 31, Cardinals 21.

Not that it matters because everything I just wrote will happen exactly as I laid it out, but feel free to post your score prediction for the game. Remember, only the people who don’t post a prediction are wrong…and those who predict the losing team to win.

Before I get to my Divisional Round Preview, I’d like to send all of the losers from Wild Card Weekend off the only way I know how: By jabbing them one final time.

Atlanta Falcons: Hey Mike Smith and Mike Mularkey, his name is Jerious Norwood. He’s #32 and he’s one of the best playmakers on your offense. Might want to think about using him more the next time an opposing defense figures out how to shut down Michael Turner.

Indianapolis Colts: Seven trips to the postseason in the last seven years and you only manage one Super Bowl appearance with a three-time MVP at quarterback? Dear Barbara…

Miami Dolphins: Chad, I love you man and I love your story this season. But you can’t force passes down field into double coverage and expect good things. You should have kept doing what you did all season and what you did in your first possession of the game – hit the high-percentage passes and let your receivers get the yardage.

Minnesota Vikings: Did anyone else scratch their head when Brad Childress declined a holding penalty on third down early in the first quarter that would have moved the Eagles on the edge of field goal range? Instead, it brought up forth down and David Akers drilled a 43-yarder to give Philly a 3-0 lead. Childress basically said, “I’m not sure if my defense can hold the Eagles on 3rd and 14 – better give up the field goal so we don’t give up a potential touchdown instead.� You never give your opponents points in the playoffs. Never. Not even a field goal. Force them back, force them to make a play and force them to earn the points.

Myself: I went 1-3 with my Wild Card Predictions last week. Seriously? You went with the Colts in the playoffs? A rookie in Matt Ryan? The Vikings over everyone’s sleeper team in the Eagles? You’re a freaking bum. (Ironically I went 3-1 in a family football pool because I came to my senses and picked San Diego and Philly.)

Moving on…

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) at Tennessee Titans (13-3)
Saturday, January 10, 4:30PM ET
Opening Odds: Titans –3
Over/Under: 34.5
Game Outlook:
No disrespect to the Giants and Eagles or any other team playing this weekend, but this is easily the best matchup on the divisional playoff schedule. Did you see what Ed Reed and the Ravens did to Chad Pennington and the Dolphins last week? They held them to only 276 total yards, forced five turnovers and surrendered only 52 rushing yards. And although they used a lot of gadget formations throughout the season, it’s not like Miami’s offense was a dud this year. Granted, the Titans have the seventh best rushing attack in the league and rookie Chris Johnson brings an added dimension to the field, but Mike Heimerdinger has his hands full this week trying to come up with a game plan to move the ball against a Baltimore defense allowing just over 15 points a game this season. That said, it’ll be interesting to see how rookie quarterback Joe Flacco does against the seventh best defense in the NFL. Flacco passed with flying colors last week while playing mistake-free and running for the game-clinching score in the fourth quarter. But he’ll have to do a hell of a lot more than complete 9 of 23 passes for 135 yards against a Tennessee defense that could have DT Albert Haynesworth and DE Kyle Vanden Bosch back on their defensive line. If both players are in the lineup Saturday, Flacco is going to feel the heat up the middle and from the edges so he better get rid of the ball in a timely manner. Overall, this is the best defensive matchup of the year and this game will probably come down to who doesn’t turn the ball over.
X-Factor: Chris Johnson, Titans RB
The only time the Dolphins found success last week was when they used the Ravens’ aggressive style against them and slipped backs out in the flats. Pennington was able to hit Patrick Cobbs and company for seven to 10 yard gains and the Titans could employ the same method. Johnson is a homerun threat and more than capable of taking one to the house every play. Tennessee has to get the ball in this kid’s hands and force the Ravens to miss tackles in the open field, which they have the penchant for doing at times.
Prediction: Titans 16, Ravens 13.
I’m not going to bite on this potential upset. The Ravens’ defense is absolutely nasty, but Flacco worries me against a ball-hawking Tennessee secondary and I think the Titans are going to shut down Baltimore’s running game. This game comes down to which team makes fewer mistakes and I’ll take a veteran in Kerry Collins over the rook Flacco. (Word to the wise though, Kerry – stay away from Ed Reed’s side if you can.)

Here’s a list of the odds against each playoff team winning the NBA championship this year, courtesy of the World Sports Exchange:

BOSTON 8-5
LOS ANGELES LAKERS 4-1
SAN ANTONIO 15-2
DETROIT 15-2
PHOENIX 10-1
NEW ORLEANS 16-1
UTAH 18-1
DALLAS 20-1
ORLANDO 30-1
CLEVELAND 36-1
HOUSTON 36-1
DENVER 50-1
WASHINGTON 55-1
TORONTO 100-1
PHILADELPHIA 150-1
ATLANTA 150-1

So which team to take? I’m not much of a betting man, but I don’t remember the last time you could get 16-1 odds on the #2 seed in the West. In fact, I like the odds on New Orleans, Phoenix, Utah and Dallas – four teams with a legitimate shot to make the Finals. Utah probably the hottest team in the West and their odds are a little inflated after a poor late-season performance against the Spurs.

In the East, there doesn’t seem to be much value in the odds for Boston or Detroit. Orlando’s odds are a little tempting, just because they do have a decent shot at reaching the Finals, and if you already have them at 30-1, you can take their Western Conference opponent before the Finals to give yourself a nice payday no matter who wins.

As for the Celtics, there isn’t much sense in taking 8-5 odds right now. If they do make the Finals, they probably won’t be big favorites, so you’ll be able to get close to even money at that point – why risk it now?

ESPN’s numbers guy, John Hollinger, predicts a Celtics/Jazz matchup in the Finals, so those Utah odds are looking pretty solid. He has the Hornets at #4 and the Suns at #5, so it looks like there is some value in those middle teams out West.

Boof Bonser and the Twins go for a little payback tonight from a loss with the same pitching matchup last week at home. Make your play on Minnesota at Kansas City vs the Royals. Back on August 1, Brian Bannister got the best of the Twinkies in the Homer Dome. The former USC Trojan limited Minnesota to three earned runs and eight hits in seven frames as Kansas City pulled off the 5-3 upset. It’s time for the Twins to grab a little payback. On the hill for Minnesota will be right-hander Boof Bonser. Yes, Mr. Bonser was on the losing end of that August 1 contest and he’ll be champing at the bit for redemption. Bonser pitched well in the loss allowing just two earned runs and eight hits in seven frames. Rest assured, he’ll do much better this time around.
At times this season Bonser has been hit-or-miss. Unfortunately, his road work has been reliable. In nine starts on foreign soil, No. 26 has produced a soft 2-4 record and has allowed only 28 earned runs and 62 hits in 49.1 innings of work. That adds up to a 5.11 ERA. Also, in three performances against KC this year, Bonser has limited the Royals to five earned runs in 17 frames. Kansas City’s Bannister has been solid in his last three starts. Facing the Twins, Rangers and Tigers, Brian popped for a 2-0 record and allowed just four earned runs and 16 hits in 21 frames. That mini-run is respectable. But, technically speaking, this is not the spot for the Royals. Minnesota has cashed 15 of its last 23 versus Kansas City and the red-hot Twins enter off last night’s crushing 4-0 shutout home loss to Cleveland. The Twins will be motivated and primed for revenge. Take Minnesota with Bonser

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Milwaukee is struggling right now, especially on the road where they’ve dropped six of their last eight. Back the Rockies at home in Colorado when they host the Brewers tonight. Our Monday MLB selection is on the Colorado Rockies over Milwaukee. Yesterday, Ned Yost’s troops blew a 6-0 lead to Philadelphia by giving up five runs in the top of the ninth inning. They then proceeded to lose 8-6 in extra innings. Thus, it will be a long plane flight out to Denver for the Brewers. They’ll hand the ball to Claudio Vargas, who has been virtually unbeatable at home but is a mere mortal on the road. Vargas also is in poor form, with a 6.48 ERA over his last three starts, compared to his mound opponent (Josh Fogg) who has a 2.50 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over his last three outings. Milwaukee is 21-32 on the road; Colorado is 30-21 at home. Take the Rockies.

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While Oswalt is having a down year by his standards, many pitchers would not mind having his 2007 numbers. Take the Astros vs. the struggling Willis. They say a Major League team is only as good as its best starter, and that has certainly been true for the Houston Astros and their right-handed ace, Roy Oswalt. As Oswalt struggles through his worst season since he came into the league in 2001, the Astros are also struggling with a 46-61 record, and are on pace to lose 92 games this season. That would be the most since all the way back in 1991, when Houston was on the wrong end of the score 97 times. Almost guaranteed a losing season in 2007, this would only be Houston’s third since that ‘91 season.
Not that Oswalt has been as bad as the team has been this season mind you, as most major league pitchers would give their non-throwing arm for the kind of season he is having. However, his ERA and walks are up and his wins and strikeouts are down, which is never a good thing. As much as Oswalt has struggled this year, it is nothing compared with the problems that Marlins left-hander Dontrelle Willis has had. The veteran southpaw has had a truly forgettable season, and it does not get any easier for him here, as he will be facing an Astros lineup that has been scoring more runs lately, especially against lefties. Houston’s offense is hitting 28 points higher against southpaws than right-handers (.278 vs. .250). The Astros also have enough confidence that Brad Lidge has returned to his old closer form that they traded Dan Wheeler away before the deadline. So far, the new Lidge has not let them down and the Houston bullpen has been solid, so take the Astros.

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Los Angeles Angels starter Joe Saunders has allowed four or fewer runs in all seven of his starts this year. The Angels are 6-1 in those starts. Oakland starter Chad Gaudin has been getting hit hard of late, allowing 19 runs in his last 21.2 innings of work. He now faces an Angels team that has scored five or more runs in eight of their last 10 games.

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Both Owings and Wells have some ugly numbers lately, so both the Arizona and San Diego bats could easily awaken tonight. Go Over this modest number. Tuesday’s game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres stayed beneath the number, but we should see some more offense this evening. Owings has a poor 6.92 ERA and 1.77 WHIP his last three starts, and he has an even worse 7.23 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in eight road starts for the season. Meanwhile, Wells has an awful 10.13 ERA and 2.10 WHIP his last three starts. Wells has seen six of 10 career starts vs. Arizona finish above the number, including a 10-5 slugfest most recently. Additionally, we find the Over at a profitable 13-6 this season when the Padres have played a game with an over/under line of either eight or 8.5. Play on the Over tonight as both hurlers continue to struggle.

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The Pirates may be home in Pittsburgh in front of the home crowd, but their losing ways will continue this evening when the St. Louis Cardinals arrive at PNC Park for a 3-game set.
Could the Pirates be in a worse spot at home? Losers of 14 out of their last 17, on a miserable 2-8 run and not hitting well as a team. Off losing series against the Philles, Mets and Astros, look for the streak to continue. Tonight the Cards send Adam Wainwright to the hill with an ERA of 3.32 in his last three starts, and a 4-2 road record. With the Pirates having a 10-game team batting average of just .227, they will find the going tough tonight. The Cardinals own this series at 39-16 their last 55 meetings and the Pirates are not a goog bet as a dog, dropping nine out of their 10 games as the underdog. Paul Maholm takes to the hill for the Pirates tonight with a losing record at home, allowing 70 hits and 37 runs in 10 starts where he is 4-6. I doubt he has enough run support tonight as the Pirates simply cannot get out of their own way and are not getting runners in scoring position.

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