Fade Material: College Football Week 11 Predictions
Technically I went 2-2 last Saturday but I did produce this gem, which was worth another win in my eyes:
My 2-2 effort last week puts me at 21-13-2 ATS for the season. Again, chances are two of these four picks will be winners while two will be losers. Soooo, have fun with that.
My two winners? Iowa (+4) and UCLA (+8.5). My two losers? Alabama (-4.5) and Texas A&M (+14).
My latest .500 week puts me at 23-15-2 on the season and once again, if you can figure out which two picks will hit and which two won’t, you’ll have a 4-0 Saturday. It’s like a game. A twisted, nauseating game.
Nebraska @ Penn State, 12:00PM ET
One of two things are going to happen this week at University Park. Either Penn State is going to play the most inspired football of the season or the Jerry Sandusky/Joe Paterno fiasco is going to bury them. I’m banking on the latter, which is why I’m riding the brutal-against-the-spread Huskers this week. Nebraska will be fired up and while Penn State may show plenty of emotion at the start, I think they’ll run out of steam eventually.
THE PICK: NEBRASKA –3.5
Michigan @ Illinois, 3:30PM ET
I’m going right back to the well in picking against Michigan. Outside of trouncing Northwestern, the Wolverines have played poorly in two of their three road games this season. While Illinois is going backwards, this is a good opportunity for the Illini to snap their current three-game losing streak. They also seem to play Michigan tough, which is supported by their 4-1 record against the spread in the last five games these two teams have met.
THE PICK: ILLINOIS –1
Louisiana Tech @ Ole Miss, 7:30PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week but I really love this matchup. Some bettors will look at this game and all they’ll see is the WAC vs. the SEC, and the fact that Ole Miss is getting points at home. But in some respects, this is the Bulldogs’ season. They take down a SEC opponent on the road and regardless of whether or not they catch Nevada, their season will be a success. As for the Rebels, will their hearts even be in this one? They’ve been terrible all year and now they have a non-conference game that means absolutely nothing to them. Even though LA Tech is favored, I like the Dogs in an “upset.”
THE PICK: LOUISIANA TECH –2
Hawaii @ Nevada, 10:15PM ET
I’m choking on chalk this week. Hawaii has had issues coming to the mainland, as evidence of its embarrassing 40-20 loss to UNLV in Week 3. UNLV is one of the worst teams in college football this season and it steamrolled a Warrior team that was a 17-point favorite. Nevada is 4-1 against the spread in its last five home games against Hawaii and the home squad is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. I hate that the line is a full point and a half above the key number of 14 but I like the Wolf Pack anyway.
THE PICK: NEVADA -15
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Posted in: College Football, Free Picks
Tags: college football free picks, College football odds, College football predictions, college football scandals, Jerry Sandusky, Jerry Sandusky scandal, Joe Paterno, joe paterno scandal, mike mcqueary, Penn State scandal
Fade Material: NFL Week 8 Predictions
It looks like I’m starting to inch closer to respectability with my NFL predictions. The Steelers, Chiefs and Broncos (by a small miracle) covered last week, while the Packers were a fourth-quarter dud against the Vikings.
That gave me a 3-1 Sunday for Week 7, which puts me at 13-15 on the year. I need one more 3-1 effort today to get me back to .500 and then I’ll really tear things up in the second half. Just you wait and see. Oh, just you wait and see.
Saints @ Rams, 1:00PM ET
After they dropped 62 points on the Colts last week, I’m sure public bettors have been racing to the window to take the over with the Saints today. The Rams have allowed the second-most points this year, just behind…yup, the Colts. But 48.5 points seems way too high for me, although I understand why oddsmakers have jacked up the total given the Saints’ offensive output last weekend. New Orleans plays things more conservatively on the road and I don’t see St. Louis helping cover the over with A.J. Feeley at the helm. I like the under.
THE PICK: UNDER 48.5
Dolphins @ Giants, 1:00PM ET
No matter how well Brandon Marshall tries to spin it, the Dolphins have checked out. Reggie Bush says the team stinks, while Yeremiah Bell says that Reggie Bush stinks. The funny part is that half the locker room seemingly agrees with Bush while the other half agrees with Bell. That’s not good for locker room dynamics and considering the Dolphins have to hit the road to face a well-rested New York squad, I like the G-Men to roll today. Of course, the last time I picked the Giants they lost outright to the Seahawks at home, which caused one of our loyal readers to request that I don’t pick them anymore. Sorry snd_dsr, but I’m going back to the well.
THE PICK: GIANTS –9.5
Lions @ Broncos, 4:05PM ET
The Lions are a complete mess and I get three points? Sign me up! Detroit is better than Denver but Detroit also has zero running game, its quarterback is banged up and its defense can’t stop the run. Oh, and they have to travel cross-country to play a team that seemingly has new life under Tim Tebow. For at least one more week I’m going to UNLEASH THE TEBOW!
THE PICK: Broncos +3
Bengals @ Seahawks, 4:15PM ET
Seattle’s quarterback situation is an abomination but no matter how ugly things can get for the Seahawks, they usually play well at home. Seattle is a tough environment for any quarterback to play in, nevertheless a rookie. Andy Dalton has certainly surpassed expectations to this point, but I think he’ll make a couple of big mistakes to cost the Bengals today. Seattle’s defense hasn’t played poorly this season and if their offense can muster double-digit points I think they win outright.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS +1
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Fade Material: College Football Week 9 Predictions
My season record stayed status quo after finishing 2-2 last week. Alabama and Texas Tech (which won outright against Oklahoma) covered but neither Arkansas nor Boise State mustered enough points against Ole Miss and Air Force, respectively. In fact, Arkansas nearly lost outright and Air Force kept things relatively close all game against the Broncos.
My season record is now 19-11-2 and I keep rotating between feeling confident and scared out of my mind with my picks this week.
Oklahoma @ Kansas State, 3:30PM ET
One of two things is going to happen today. Either the Sooners are going to come out pissed off about their loss last week to Tech and absolutely crush the Wildcats or they’re going to come out flat and potentially lose outright. What I don’t like about that scenario is the unknown. We know what we’re getting out of K-State: A solid football team with a dual threat quarterback that has been disrespected by oddsmakers all season. I think the spread should be closer to 10 instead of nearly two touchdowns. I get that oddsmakers are trying to protect themselves from a potential OU rout, but I still like Bill Snyder’s team today at home.
THE PICK: KANSAS STATE +13.5
Baylor @ Oklahoma State, 3:30PM ET
It’s funny, the Cowboys keep rolling but the lines in their games always seem pretty reasonable for a team that’s 7-0 and 6-1 against the spread this season. It appears as though the sharp bettors keep going against them and it’s keeping the spreads low. I realize that Baylor can score on anyone and OK State’s defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. But the Bears’ D isn’t anything to right home about either and if it’s going to be a shootout, I like Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon on their home turf, especially with Baylor coming off a humbling 55-28 loss to Texas A&M.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE -14
Colorado @ Arizona State, 6:30PM ET
I thought the Buffaloes were going to keep things close at home against a banged up Oregon team. Instead, Colorado was crushed 45-2 in one of the more pathetic showings of any college team this year. With quarterback Tyler Hansen (concussion) not expected to play and redshirt freshman Nick Hirschman under center, I like ASU to roll. The Sun Devils haven’t exactly been lighting the stat sheet up but Colorado has been outscored by an average of 26.5 points in its four road losses this season. Brock Osweiler should have himself a big night.
THE PICK: ARIZONA STATE -31
Clemson @ Georgia Tech, 8:00PM ET
Everyone keeps waiting for Clemson to implode and all they keep doing is winning. BIG. I was among the contingent that believed the Tigers would fall apart at some point but looking at their upcoming schedule they have a great opportunity to finish the season undefeated if they can play well on the road. Today marks the first of three road games that Clemson has left on its schedule. A trip to Atlanta to play Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets is never easy, but Georgia Tech has issues. Quarterback Tevin Washington has thrown four interceptions over the last three games, starting center Jay Finch is out with an injured leg and opponents have started to exploit Johnson’s run-happy offense. I have no qualms about laying the points with Clemson. I just hope the hook doesn’t burn me.
THE PICK: CLEMSON TIGERS –3.5
Last Week: 2-2
Season Record: 19-11-2
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Fade Material: NFL Week 6 Predictions
Following my disastrous 0-4 effort in Week 4, I rallied to hit three-of-four last Sunday. The Bills, Patriots and Packers all covered while my lone loser, the Giants, had a day to forget against the Seahawks.
That runs my sterling season record to 8-12 with a chance for .500 with a perfect Sunday today. (Ha! Perfect Sunday. Like those even exist…)
San Francisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions, 1:00PM ET
I’ve been knee-deep in Lions’ Kool-Aid for weeks now, but I think 4.5 points is too much for them to give up against a 4-1 Niners team that is playing extremely well defensively. Detroit is coming off an emotional win against Chicago on Monday night and while I don’t expect the Lions to overlook the Niners today, I think this is a field goal game either way. I like San Fran and the points more than I dislike the Lions if that makes sense.
THE PICK: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS +4.5
St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers, 1:00PM ET
Normally double-digit dogs are safe best in the NFL. But this hasn’t been a normal year. Teams are racking up the points and we’re seeing true mismatches play out on the field. The Packers got a scare from the Falcons in the first half last week and I think that will serve them well today. The Rams may be coming off their bye but I’m pretty sure Albert Pujols and John Jay are starting at cornerback. If Rodgers doesn’t throw for over 400 yards he should be embarrassed. Embarrassed I say!
THE PICK: GREEN BAY PACKERS –14
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Bucs, 4:15PM ET
The Saints make me nervous a little because this is their third-straight road game and they have a tendency to play more conservative away from the Superdome. That said, if they get rolling in this one Tampa Bay doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace. I hate laying nearly a touchdown with New Orleans but the Saints are 4-1 against the spread in their last five road games against the Bucs while the road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two squads. Thus, I’m not going to over think this one.
THE PICK: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS –6
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears, 8:20PM ET
I don’t trust the Bears as far as I can throw them. Probably because every time I pick them they screw me, but that’s a personal problem between them and me and I won’t get you involved. Jared Allen may have a field day against Chicago’s suspect offensive line and Jay Cutler seems to be losing faith in Mike Martz’s offense by the week. The Vikings have played better than their 1-4 record would indicate but they need to play a full four quarters if they’re going to pick up a win tonight. With the Bears coming off a short week, I think Minnesota can win with Adrian Peterson playing havoc with Chicago’s thin defensive line. (A line that won’t have Julius Peppers.)
THE PICK: MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3
Last Week: 3-1
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Fade Material: College Football Week 7 Predictions
Well I’ll be a son of monkey’s uncle: I had my first 4-0 Saturday of the year last week. Never thought I’d see the day.
I ate that chalk like it was no tomorrow with picks of Alabama (-29), Stanford (-29) and LSU (-13), but they all covered somewhat easily. My best pick wound up being a 10-point dog in Wake Forest, which won outright at home against Florida State. That pushes my season record to 14-8-2, which can only mean one thing: A 0-4 Saturday is right around the corner…
Indiana @ Wisconsin, 12:00PM ET
This is one of those games when you look at the line and say, “Thirty-nine and a half points? Indiana is getting 39.5 points? Oh, they have to cover that spread. All they need to do is show up!” Then you check the score two minutes in and it’s already 14-0 Wisconsin and they’re lining up to kick a field goal to add to their lead. The last time these two teams met, the Badgers put up 83 points on the Hoosiers in Indiana, without Russell Wilson under center. So no, I don’t mind laying the nearly 40 points with Wisconsin. If I get burned on a backdoor cover so be it. But this one won’t be close and it’s just a matter of when the Badgers will take their foot off the gas in the second half. Hopefully it’s well after they have a cover in hand.
THE PICK: WISCONSIN –39.5
South Carolina @ Mississippi State, 12:20PM ET
The Bulldogs have been one of the nation’s biggest disappointments after winning nine games a season ago. They started the year ranked in the top 20 but have quickly faded from memory. While South Carolina has one of the most feared running back-receiver duos in the country courtesy of Marcus Lattimore and Alshon Jeffrey, I think this is the one day Mississippi State raises its game and pulls off the upset. The Gamecocks had to suffer through some turmoil early this week when Stephen Garcia was finally given the boot and now they have to hit the road against a SEC opponent looking for one signature victory to turn their season around. I think the Bulldogs get that victory here, although take the field goal as insurance.
THE PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE +3
Oklahoma State @ Texas, 3:30PM ET
Last Saturday was the first time all year that Texas faced an offense that could put points on the board and the Longhorns were absolutely crushed by high-powered Oklahoma. Even though they return to Austin this week, things don’t get any easier for Mack Brown and Co. The Cowboys own the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense, averaging more than 51 points per game. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon should have a field day against a Texas secondary that was lit up by Landry Jones last weekend. Even though the Longhorns hold a 14-2 advantage over the Cowboys in Austin, I think it’s going to be a long day for Texas.
THE PICK: OKLAHOMA STATE –7
Idaho @ New Mexico State, 8:00PM ET
For my “Who cares?” pick of the week, I’m going with the Vandals, who are 5-1 against the spread in their last six trips to New Mexico State and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Aggies. The road team is also 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these two squads while the underdog is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 overall meetings. For whatever reason this game stood out to be as a mistake by the oddsmakers (not that they make mistakes). I like Idaho to roll.
THE PICK: IDAHO +1
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