The latest scuttlebutt out of the NFL labor non-negotiation negotiations is the idea of a “pegged” cap, which was reportedly brought up by the players. A pegged cap is a stable salary cap that is based on revenue projections and goes up at a set amount each season. The last CBA had a salary cap based on actual annual revenue that could go up or down each year depending on which way the wind was blowing.

Why does this matter?

Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio explains…

If the actual numbers come in lower, the players still get paid. One major area of dispute has arisen from the question of whether and to what extent the actual performance exceeds the projected revenue growth. The owners’ offer of March 11 omitted that wrinkle; the players want to share in the upside.

The players, we’re told, prefer a “pegged cap” approach to expense credits because it entails simpler auditing and fewer disputes.

I’m on the players’ side in this debate, but if they are getting guaranteed pay no matter how the league is actually doing, then they can’t really demand a substantial share of the upside. If they have no downside, why should they get considerable upside?

Of course, it all depends on the projections used to create the pegged cap. If they’re conservative, and revenue is very likely to be greater, then the players do deserve a share. If the projections are aggressive, then the players should be happy they have stable salaries with no downside and forget about trying to get a piece of the additional revenue.

Florio continues…

As of right now, the two sides are $10 million apart per team on the the “pegged cap” approach, which is driven by projected revenues. The owners have offered $141 million per team in salary and benefits, and the players have requested $151 million. If they can bridge the gap and devise a procedure for handling any excess growth, they should be able to do a deal fairly quickly.

Well, that’s awfully optimistic given the current status of the negotiations, which are at a standstill. The two sides need to get talking again, but that is unlikely since they’re waiting on the courts to decide the fate of the lockout.

Tick-tock, people! (Don’t they know I have fantasy football rankings to put together?)

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

When doing a postmortem on any fantasy football season, I like to look at how a particular player performed on a per game basis adjusted for his strength of schedule (SOS). DTs are no different, except that they all played the same number of games. SOS will have an impact, but the per game aspect of it won’t make much of a difference.

Keep in mind that I used the following scoring system:

DT/ST TD = 6 points
Safety = 2 points
INT = 1 point
Fumble = 1 point
Sack = 1 point

Defensive Points Allowed
Shutout = 10
2 – 6 = 8
7 – 10 = 6
11 – 14 = 4
15 – 19 = 2
20+ = 0

Here’s a look at how the 32 DTs stack up against each other when SOS bias is removed:

Read the rest of this entry »

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

Here’s a look at the Top 50 TEs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

I’ve already covered quarterbacks and running backs, now it’s time to look at wide receivers on a per game basis. Below is a table of the Top 50 WRs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Check out Brady’s dance moves as he attends Carnival in Rio de Janero.

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

As I outlined in yesterday’s QB post, total points is not always the best way to judge a player’s season, especially when you’re trying to project how he’s going to play in the future. I prefer to look at per game numbers that are adjusted for strength of schedule. That way, I have a pretty good idea how each player would fare against neutral competition.

Here’s a look at the Top 50 RBs of 2010 in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. Keep in mind these are points scored in a standard (non-PPR) scoring system. (The PPR table is further down.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

Most fantasy owners focus on total points scored when trying to determine how a certain player performed in any given year. But that total doesn’t always tell the whole story. There are two big factors — strength of schedule and points per game — that should be taken into account when attempting to judge a player, especially when a fantasy owner is putting together his rankings.

If a QB had an unusually easy schedule in 2010, and his schedule in 2011 is much tougher, we can expect that his numbers are going to take a hit. The opposite is true if a QB projects to have a much easier schedule.

Likewise, if a player has great per game numbers, but spent a good portion of the year sidelined with one injury or another (think Matthew Stafford, Tony Romo or Michael Vick) then total fantasy points isn’t a good indicator of what that player might be capable of in 2011.

Below is a list of the Top 40 QBs in terms of adjusted fantasy points per game, which is calculated by dividing the player’s total points by the number of games he played and then adjusting the result by the average schedule bias for his team. The bias for the aforementioned Vick, Romo and Stafford will be off, since the average takes into account all 16 games, and they only appeared in 12, six and three games, respectively. Still, it gives us a pretty good idea how these players rank amongst their peers given their abbreviated seasons.

Let’s take a look…

Read the rest of this entry »

Certain players take a lot of criticism for dropped passes. James Jones was one of those guys in 2010, especially after he missed an opportunity for a huge gainer in Super Bowl XLV.

The Packers have to decide what to do with Jones this offseason. There was a report that they didn’t offer him a restricted free agent tender, but he says they did. This got me thinking — just how bad were Jones’ drops this year?

The number of passes that a WR drops is not a stat that is widely available. I found this table over at the Washington Post, which allowed me to calculate each player’s drops as a percentage of their targets:

Read the rest of this entry »

If you missed my explanation and the first six picks, click here.

7.06: Danny Woodhead, RB
I needed a third RB and was debating between Woodhead and James Starks. I like Starks, but Ryan Grant is expected to be back in Green Bay and I don’t like a timeshare there, especially without the roles being clearly defined. That’s one thing about Woody — he’s not going to set the world on fire, but as the Pats third-down back, he’s going to catch a number of passes. They used him regularly in the running game too. So while there’s not a lot of upside here, he’s a pretty sure thing for the 7th round.

Read the rest of this entry »

In an effort to keep my fantasy mind sharp during the doldrums of February and March, I decided to join one of FantasyFootballWhiz.com’s Draftmaster drafts. I am not part of the Invitational, but the same rules apply:

The drafts are being done so that the changes in fantasy value over the next 7 months can be tracked and debated by a strong group of very knowledgeable Fantasy Football players. These drafts will lead to a whole series of articles, debates, roundtables and podcasts that will allow the readers and listeners to get inside the heads of these select drafters.

Note that these are “drafts” and not “mocks”, as the leagues will be scored. Each team will select 16 players in the draft and no roster moves will be allowed once it is complete. They will be scored using a best-ball system, which basically means that each teams top scorers will be automatically used each week to provide their score. No setting lineups, no waivers and no trades, they are simply put, all about the draft.

The leagues will be using a standard PPR scoring system with 16 roster spots. Each week’s scores will be generated by the best lineup, which will consist of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF, FLEX (RB, WR, TE). To maximize the usefulness of the draft results, teams will be allowed no more than one kicker and one defense.

The competition seems good. There are a number of other fantasy experts and enthusiasts in my league (#Draftmaster 19) that I recognize from my time spent on Twitter.

I thought it might be valuable for me to go over each pick after I make it, revealing the other players that I considered along with my reasoning behind picking the player that I did. You can check the updated draft report here. My username (and Twitter name) is @FantasyShrink.

I had the #6 pick overall, which this year turns out to be a pretty good spot to be. Let’s jump right in and discuss the first six rounds.

1.06: LeSean McCoy, RB
With Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles and Ray Rice taken with the first five picks, I was left with a decision between Maurice Jones-Drew and LeSean McCoy. While I do like MJD, his knee injury has me a little worried and I’m not all that confident in the Jacksonville O-line. On the other hand, McCoy was actually RB3 (behind Foster and Darren McFadden) on a per game basis in PPR leagues because he catches so many passes (78 in 2010). His adjusted numbers (for bias due to strength of schedule) are a little better.

One mistake that I see fantasy owners often make is to overlook pass-catching RBs like McCoy (or Brian Westbrook before him) in PPR leagues. They’re looking at magazine or website rankings that aren’t intended for the PPR audience, and those always underestimate the value of a guy who catches a lot of passes out of the backfield.

Here’s a look at highlights from McCoy’s 2010 season. The kid is explosive.

Read the rest of this entry »