All in all, it was kind of a disappointing year for Steve Smith. In PPR leagues, he finished WR19, and considering he was typically being taken WR5 to WR10 in fantasy drafts, owners didn’t really get what they expected out of him.
But from a QB standpoint, he just couldn’t get any consistency out of Jake Delhomme, who threw just eight TD (versus 18 interceptions) in 11 games, and generally couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat. During that span, Smith averaged 4.2 catches for 55 yards and 0.4 TD per game. This was a far cry from his four-year average of 5.9 catches for 87 yards and 0.6 TD per game from 2005 to 2008.
Is Smith slowing down? While he is on the wrong side of 30 — he’ll turn 31 this May — his yards per catch in 2009 (15.1) was his third-highest in the last five years, and looked every bit as quick as he did three years ago. His 130 targets weren’t far off his four-year average (141.5), so he’s still a huge part of the Carolina offense even though the Panthers are more of a running team. Those 130 targets were the 14th-most amongst wide receivers, so barring something unforeseen, Smith should have plenty of opportunities to make plays in 2010.
But what about Matt Moore? Even though he started the final five games of the season, he’s still going to be a question mark for fantasy owners heading into drafts this summer. He averaged 198 yards, 1.6 TD and just 0.2 INT per game over that five-game span. From 2005 to 2008, Delhomme averaged 211 yards, 1.3 TD and 0.8 INT per game, so Moore’s 2009 numbers already compare favorably in terms of Smith getting good play at QB. (If you’re wondering about his competition, the first four games were against defenses ranked in the top 20 in pass yards allowed and he threw seven of his eight TD in those games.)
To gain a better understanding of Moore’s prospects, I asked our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter to chime in. Here’s what he had to say:
Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve listed my top QBs and RBs for 2010, and discussed the impressive depth of the TE position heading into next season. Today, I’ll list my top 10 fantasy wideouts for 2010. (These rankings assume a high-performance, point per reception scoring system.)
1. Andre Johnson
He’s a beast and the Texans often get into shootouts. As long as he stays healthy, he’s a shoe-in for a top 5 season.
2. Reggie Wayne
Wayne over Fitz? I think so, assuming Kurt Warner retires. Matt Leinart just does not inspire much confidence right now.
3. Larry Fitzgerald
Arguably the most talented wideout on this list, but if Warner doesn’t return, he could have a big problem at QB.
4. Randy Moss
He’ll be 33 heading into next season and seems disinterested at times. Still, with Wes Welker shaky to start the season, the Pats will lean on him.
5. Miles Austin
Exploded onto the scene in Week 5 (10-250-2) and never looked back. He’s the Cowboys’ clear WR1, runs great routes and has nice hands.
6. Roddy White
Struggled with injuries this year, but didn’t miss a game. He finished WR10, but should do better with a healthy Matt Ryan.
7. DeSean Jackson
Andy Reid usually finds a way to get him the ball, in the passing game or on the reverse. He’s also a very dangerous return man. With Brian Westbrook possibly gone, D-Jax would become Philly’s primary playmaker.
8. Vincent Jackson
He’s in a great offense with a great QB. He increased his per-game numbers from an already-productive 2008.
9. Steve Smith 2.0
Smith could potentially lose some targets to Hakeem Nicks, but he’ll more than likely be the Giants’ main possession receiver. In PPR leagues, he only missed double figures once all season.
10. Calvin Johnson
He battled injuries but still scored well when he played. He has some serious upside, especially if Matthew Stafford progresses as expected.
Honorable Mention: Chad Ochocinco, Sidney Rice, Marques Colston, Steve Smith 1.0, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker, Greg Jennings, Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes, Anquan Boldin
Yesterday, I posted a list of my top fantasy QBs for next season. Now, it’s time to tackle the RB position. These rankings are for a high-performance, PPR scoring system. Off we go…
1. Chris Johnson
This year’s reigning OPOY figures to carry the same workload in 2010. He gained over 2500 yards and scored 16 times. Moreover, he played even better with Vince Young under center, so things bode well for next season.
2. Adrian Peterson
It would help if Brett Favre came back for another season, but it’s not a necessity. AP will still be the focal point of the Vikings’ offense.
3. Ray Rice
A great runner in a great running game. He gained more than 2000 yards from scrimmage and caught 78 passes. Money.
4. Maurice Jones-Drew
The Jags’ O-line raises concerns, which is why MJD isn’t higher. If they can get it straightened out, a top 3 finish is very possible.
5. Frank Gore
Finished as 2009’s RB5 even though he missed three games. That’s just it with Gore — he’s just a *little* bit injury prone.
6. Steven Jackson
Missed a game, had no help and still finished RB8. His numbers should improve as the Rams (hopefully) get back to mediocre.
7. Jamaal Charles
He scored 189 fantasy points over the last eight games. Those are RB1 numbers. Charles will be downgraded a bit because he’s a bit of an unknown, but with Charlie Weis taking over the KC offense, the Chiefs should be better on that side of the ball.
8. Michael Turner
Yes, he struggled with injuries. But he scored 140 points in the first eight games. Had he played a full season, he would have finished RB5-RB7. At just 27 (and with his limited work in San Diego), he should have several good years left.
9. Matt Forte
This is where things get really dicey. I could make an argument for 6-8 guys for these last two spots. Forte revealed at the end of the season that he struggled with injuries all year. Is it just an excuse or valid reasoning? Only he knows for sure. He’s the clear RB1 in Chicago and catches a lot of passes. He should bounce back, especially if the Bears’ offense improves.
10. Rashard Mendenhall
Of the remaining contenders, I like Mendenhall the best because Willie Parker will likely be gone, so he should be the clear RB1 in Pittsburgh. He gained almost 1400 yards from scrimmage and scored eight times even though he barely sniffed the ball in the first three games.
Honorable Mention: Joseph Addai, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, Pierre Thomas (especially if Bush is gone), DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Ronnie Brown, LaDainian Tomlinson, Knowshon Moreno
Here’s an awesome mixtape of coaching rants set to music. Hopefully it plays for you all the way through. I had to restart it and move ahead a couple of times.
1. Aaron Rodgers
2009’s QB1 should have another great season. He also can beat teams with his feet. (He led all QBs in rushing yards.) Jermichael Finley looks to be a future Pro Bowler at TE.
2. Drew Brees
The Saints’ offense shouldn’t change much, though they will have a first-place schedule, so the competition will be tougher.
3. Peyton Manning
Steady and dependable. The only downside to Manning is that there’s a chance he’ll sit during the fantasy playoffs.
4. Tom Brady
He threw for almost 4400 yards and 28 TD and the perception is that he had a down year.
5. Philip Rivers
The Chargers are turning into a passing team and Rivers has a number of weapons to throw to (plus great weather in San Diego, even in December).
6. Tony Romo
It appears that Romo has turned the corner. The emergence of Miles Austin has more than replaced Terrell Owens’ place in the Cowboy offense.
7. Ben Roethlisberger
The Steelers are more of a passing team now, and Big Ben is at the center of it all.
8. Matt Schaub
I’d have him higher, but I still think he’s an injury risk. This season, he threw for 4770 yards and 29 TD. Can he repeat? Having Andre Johnson certainly helps.
9. Eli Manning
The Giants threw the ball a lot this season, more than expected. But with Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, the receiving corps is young and talented.
10. Donovan McNabb
McNabb is another guy that seems to get nicked up with regularity. He missed two games this season and 17 over the last five seasons. I’d rather go QBBC with the #11-#15 guys.
Honorable Mention: Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel
It’s that time of year again. Much like the post-draft letdown all fantasy owners go through in August or September, the end of the fantasy football season can be a depressing time indeed. I know a lot of baseball fans are already looking forward to spring training and their fantasy baseball drafts, but I’m not a baseball guy, so I need to look elsewhere for comfort. Here are 10 reasons why it’s good that the fantasy football season is finally over. (Seriously, guys, it’s not that bad.)
1. Your busted picks won’t haunt you anymore.
Just think about it: you don’t have to set your lineup for another nine months. No more looking at the injured Michael Turner or the disappointing Brian Westbrook wasting away on your bench. You can add Larry Johnson, Terrell Owens, Marshawn Lynch, Ronnie Brown, Steve Slaton and Matt Forte to that list. All of these guys were early picks that managed to sabotage fantasy seasons to one degree or another. If you only had one of these guys on your team, count yourself lucky. Two or more and your season was probably over before it started.
2. You can start (truly) rooting for your favorite team.
No more fragmented alliances. If you have a favorite team (and who doesn’t?), chances are that at one point or another, you were rooting against them this year. Either your favorite team was playing against a particular player on your fantasy team, or you needed a field goal instead of an extra point from your favorite team’s kicker. At some point, you wanted your team – whose colors you claim to bleed – to fail, somehow or someway. The best thing to do is fess up, ask forgiveness, and cheer as loudly as you can if your team was fortunate enough to make the playoffs.
“Everything I’ve done has been nothing but 100% commitment to the Denver Broncos and to my teammates… To say I’ve given up on my teammates is just a disgusting feeling, and it hurts me… I have nothing but great things to say about Coach McDaniels, this organization… Mr. B is one of the best owners in all of sports. I take my hat off to Josh McDaniels because, if it wasn’t for him, the growth in me this year wouldn’t be there.”
In terms of pure ability, where does Marshall rank amongst wideouts in the NFL? From a value standpoint, he’s only 25, so he’s just now entering his prime. That’s scary. Without all the off-the-field stuff, I’d probably only take Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald ahead of Marshall in a free-for-all draft. But with all the off-the-field drama, Reggie Wayne, Roddy White and Vincent Jackson look more appealing. They give you 98% of the production without all the headaches.
With Marshall and the Broncos once again looking to be on the outs, some lucky team has an opportunity to acquire the talented wideout this summer.
By the time the fantasy football season is over, I usually want to crawl into a hole and forget about the topic for a few weeks. But one thing occurred to me as I watched the Week 17 games — there really are a lot of quality TEs out there.
Take a look at 2009’s scoring breakdown for TE1 through TE12, for a high-performance, PPR league compared to the five previous years:
In short, nine slots (TE3, and TE5-TE12) set six-year records. There was unprecedented depth at TE in 2009.
What does this mean for 2010?
Well, there are no fewer than eleven players that I’d feel very comfortable with heading into next season: Dallas Clark, Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis, Brent Celek, Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow, Heath Miller, Owen Daniels and Chris Cooley (provided they look strong in training camp), and star-in-the-making Jermichael Finley.
Moreover, there are a few more guys whose stock could rise (or stay high) if their environment improves (or stays consistent). For example, Zach Miller (6.2-63-0.3 over the last six games) emerged as the Raiders’ most consistent receiver after JaMarcus Russell was benched. Visanthe Shiancoe should have another top 10 year if Brett Favre plays another season. Greg Olsen (TE10, ranked 8th in targets amongst TEs) should have a better year with another offseason to work with Jay Cutler. John Carlson (TE13, 10th in TE targets) played a lot better with Matt Hasselbeck under center than without. Dustin Keller should improve alongside Matt Sanchez. Even Kevin Boss showed starter potential once he finally got healthy.
That’s 17 players, and I haven’t even yet mentioned grizzled vets Jeremy Shockey or Todd Heap, who each showed flashes of their old selves and different points in the season.
Throw in the fact that Dallas Clark’s stock may slide due to the return of Anthony Gonzalez, and 2010 is shaping up to be a year when fantasy owners would be wise to wait on the TE position. It will obviously still pay to have a stud TE, but with this many quality players, there’s no telling who those studs will be. Would you be shocked if Brent Celek or Vernon Davis outscored Dallas Clark and/or Antonio Gates next season? Me either.
Most fantasy football leagues held their championship games last week, but there are still a few holdout leagues that schedule their title games for Week 17. To that end, here are a few players that I like, and a few that I don’t.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.
The Steelers need a win, and Ben Roethlisberger has a great matchup against the Dolphins’ 23rd-ranked pass defense (allowing 236 yards, 1.3 TD per game)…The Giants have struggled to stop the pass of late and phoned it in against the Panthers last week, so Brett Favre should have a good game, especially since the Vikings need to win…The Browns have a sketchy pass defense, so David Garrard should have a nice line in a game that the Jags have to win to have a shot at the postseason…Desperate? Josh Freeman has a nice matchup against the Falcons, who are ranked 28th against the pass. Matt Ryan and Co. looked pretty good in Week 16, so the Bucs will likely have to throw to stay in the game.
