Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) for the rest of the season
Posted by John Paulsen (11/06/2009 @ 5:00 pm)

Back in August, I recommended a few DTBC combinations for fantasy owners to use throughout the season. My top recommendation was GB/DAL, who have combined to score 69 points through eight weeks (8.6 ppg). This combo started a bit slow, as Dallas posted a goose egg in Week 2, over the last three weeks, it has scored 44 combined points.
Still own these two defenses? You can still hold onto them, but Week 15 is looking a little rough as the Packers play in Pittsburgh and the Cowboys visit the Saints. Green Bay just isn’t putting much pressure on the QB, so Ben Roethlisberger may be able to sit back and pick apart the Packer secondary.
If don’t own a top tier defense (PHI, NO, MIN, BAL and PIT, now that they have Troy Polamalu back), you may want to consider acquiring two good but not great defenses that combine to have a favorable schedule down the stretch. Normally, it doesn’t make sense to carry two defenses, but now that most of the teams are past their byes, it’s not necessary to hold onto bye week fill-ins because you’re probably not going to need them.
There are eleven DTs that are owned in more than two-thirds of ESPN leagues making it somewhat unlikely that they’re available on your league’s waiver wire. This list includes the aforementioned six teams along with the Broncos, Packers, Giants, Jets, Bears and Colts. If you have one of these six, it might behoove you to grab a defense with a complementary schedule.
I’m targeting nine defenses — the Cardinals, Patriots, Texans, 49ers, Bengals, Cowboys, Falcons, Seahawks and the Dolphins — that either mesh well with the Broncos, Packers, Giants and Jets, or with each other. These defenses are all ranked in the top 22 and are available in at least a third of ESPN fantasy leagues. These are defenses that relatively healthy and have had success in good matchups. Here’s a look:
Read the rest of this entry »
Love ‘Em & Leave ‘Em: Week 9
Posted by John Paulsen (11/05/2009 @ 4:06 pm)
Every week, I will highlight a few players to start and a few players to sit at each position. I’m a firm believer in starting your studs, so I won’t tell you about how Drew Brees or Adrian Peterson has a tough matchup – just go ahead and keep them in your lineup. Instead, I’ll focus on the borderline guys – players you’ll only start under the right circumstances. It’s important to note that depending on your roster and situation, you may not be able to follow these recommendations. For example, if I suggest you bench a solid starter like Tony Romo, only do so if you have a clearly better option on your bench.
The “love ‘em” players are listed in the order that I’d start them this week.


This should go without saying, but just in case: Aaron Rodgers should be in your lineup against a Bucs’ pass defense that has yielded 2.3 pass TD per game this season…Donovan McNabb has a very good matchup against a struggling Cowboys secondary…Matt Hasselbeck faces the Lions. Two words: Start him…Cincinnati’s pass defense is ranked 30th in the league, so Joe Flacco should have a nice fantasy line this week…As it stands, Matt Cassel has his last great matchup of the season this week, coming off a bye against the Jaguars’ 26th-ranked pass defense…So, last week, was the Titans’ pass defense that good or was Jacksonville’s pass defense that bad. Alex Smith faces Tennessee’s league-worst pass defense this week and is a pretty nice start…I’m a little hesitant to recommend him again after his brutal showing against the Titans, but David Garrard has another nice matchup this week against the Chiefs and isn’t a bad start…For the desperate, Jason Campbell is a sneaky good start against a Falcons defense that has struggled to stop the pass in recent weeks.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 9, 2009 NFL Week 9, Fantasy Football, fantasy football start sit week 9, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 9, fantasy football week 9 busts, fantasy football week 9 sleepers, Headlines, Love 'Em & Leave 'Em

Fantasy Football Quick-Hitters: Calvin, Westy, Gonzalez, McFadden and more
Posted by John Paulsen (11/04/2009 @ 3:10 pm)
Calvin Johnson is back at practice. Not only does this help his owners, but also those that have Kevin Smith and/or Matthew Stafford on their rosters. HC Jim Schwartz told the press that Kevin Smith was his “workhorse” back, so with Johnson back in the fold, Smith should have an easier time finding running lanes. He’s pretty much an every-week start in PPR leagues.
Jamal Lewis reiterates that he plans to retire after the season. The Cleveland offense is so anemic that this really isn’t news that’s going to help anyone this season, but those owners in keeper or dynasty leagues might want to pick up Jerome Harrison and or James Davis on the chance that they become the Browns’ feature back next season.
Anthony Gonzalez seeks second opinion on knee. This can’t be a good sign. Gonzalez was supposed to be back by now, and the fact that he’s not is already a red flag. We’ll see what this second opinion says, but it’s not looking good. The only reason he’d seek another
Westbrook cleared to resume practicing. He is coming back from a concussion. It’s a little worrisome for his owners, but this good news devalues LeSean McCoy a bit, so if you have Westy on your roster you could use this along with Leonard Weaver’s big day to try to acquire McCoy on the cheap.
Seahawks release Edgerrin James. This is a sign for more work for Justin Forsett, who will be Seattle’s RB2 behind Julius Jones. Forsett has been more productive at times than Jones, but the two are likely to share carries and catches in the Seahawks’ backfield. Forsett should now be owned in most leagues.
McFadden, Schilens back at practice. I’d wait a week to see how McFadden plays, but it’s still a good sign that he is back on the field. The Oakland passing game is a mess, so Schilens is barely roster-worthy at this point.
Fantasy Football Q&A: Week 9
Posted by John Paulsen (11/04/2009 @ 11:37 am)

Want my take on what happened in Week 8? Fantasy Fallout
Wondering who to pick up? Waiver Wire Watch
Looking for a defense this week? DTBWW
Still have questions? Fire away. Be sure to let me know whether or not you’re in a PPR league.
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 9, 2009 NFL Week 9, Fantasy Football, fantasy football advice, Fantasy Football Q&A, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football week 9, fantasy Q&A, Headlines

Defensive Team By Waiver Wire (DTBWW): Week 9
Posted by John Paulsen (11/03/2009 @ 2:45 pm)
The strategy behind DTBWW is that each week, you pick up a defense, preferably one playing at home against a bad offense. And each week, you get pretty good numbers out of your DT position. To see how this approach performed last season, click here.
Last week, I recommended three DTBWW picks. Let’s see how they fared…
#1 Cardinals: 34 PA (0) + 1 SK = 1 fp
#2 Chargers: 16 PA (2) + 5 SK + INT = 8 fp
#3 Texans: 10 PA (6) + 2 SK + 2 INT = 10 fp
Wow, did the Arizona defense lay an egg last week. The Cardinals had the top-ranked rush defense coming in, and had played well the previous two weeks against the Giants and the Seahawks. But DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart gashed them repeatedly on the ground to the tune of 245 yards and two TD, and they failed to get to Jake Delhomme in the passing game. The Chargers and Texans performed as expected. (Special thanks to our NFL guru, Anthony Stalter, for redeeming himself with the Houston pick.)
For the season, the #1 DTBWW pick has averaged 10.4 fantasy points per game, the #2 pick has averaged 9.4 and the #3 pick is posting 7.6. On the whole, DTBWW is producing 9.1 points per game, which are DT5 numbers.
Let’s take a look at this week’s picks. Keep in mind that to be eligible for DTBWW, a defense must be available in at least 40% of ESPN fantasy leagues.
Pick #1: Seattle Seahawks (vs. DET)
Seattle is averaging 11.3 fantasy points at home (versus 2.3 on the road), so a matchup with the visiting Lions is tasty indeed. The Seahawks have destroyed the Rams and Jags at home this season and should be able to post nice fantasy numbers against the struggling Lions.
Pick #2: Atlanta Falcons (vs. WAS)
The Falcons have some problems, but played well in the second half against a great Saints’ offense. The Redskins’ offensive woes have been well documented, and like most defenses, the Falcons play better at home. Another nice thing about ATL is that they have a good matchup in Week 10 as well (@ CAR), so they could be a solid multi-week play.
Pick #3: San Francisco 49ers (vs. TEN)
Vince Young looked pretty good last week, but the 49ers aren’t the Jags. Mike Singletary’s defensive unit did a pretty nice job in a tough situation last week in Indy, and it has played well in favorable situations this season. Containing Chris Johnson is the key.
Waiver Wire Watch: Week 9
Posted by John Paulsen (11/03/2009 @ 7:30 am)

Every week, I highlight a few players that you should target in waivers. I use the ESPN league data when filtering players, so the only players eligible for discussion here are those that are available on the waiver wire in at least 50% of ESPN’s leagues. I’ll list each player’s percentage-owned after their name so you have an idea of how available they are in leagues around the country. I’ll always try to mention a few players that are available in 90% of leagues for those of you in 12-team leagues or leagues with big rosters. I’ll rank them in the order I’d pick them up in a league with a high-performance, PPR scoring system.
Please note that these rankings are for total value through the end of the year. Players with particularly good matchups this week are in bold.
This week, I am going to spend extra time on the TE position to try to help those Owen Daniels owners pick up the pieces.
Alex Smith (9.7)
After a better-than-expected showing against a good Colts pass defense, Smith has TEN, CHI, GB, JAX, SEA and DET over the next seven weeks. If you have two good QBs and can trade one of them away, Smith should be a solid backup.
Mark Sanchez (45.6)
He’s on bye this week, but has a tasty matchup against the Jags in Week 10.
Jason Campbell (22.0)
Despite his team’s struggles, Campbell has been pretty solid, posting 12+ fp in all but one game.
Matthew Stafford (6.0)
Vince Young (3.9)
Trent Edwards (31.1)
Chad Henne (4.9)
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in: Fantasy Football, NFL
Tags: 2009 fantasy football, 2009 fantasy football week 9, 2009 NFL Week 9, Fantasy Football, fantasy football pickups, fantasy football strategy, fantasy football waiver wire, fantasy football waiver wire pickups, fantasy football week 9, Headlines, waiver wire watch

Fantasy Fallout, Week 8: QBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/02/2009 @ 8:00 am)
- Donovan McNabb (240 yards, 3 TD) shredded a dinged-up Giants secondary.
- Mark Sanchez (265 yards, 2 TD) was able to take advantage of the Dolphins young CBs.
- Alex Smith (198 yards, TD, INT) had a better-than-expected game against the Colts’ stingy pass defense.
- Neither Matthew Stafford (168 yards, INT) nor Marc Bulger (176 yards, INT) played well even though they both had great matchups.
- Tony Romo (256 yards, 3 TD) posted big numbers for the third straight week. He has 918 yards and 8 TD over that span, but faces a tough test in Philly next week.
- Jay Cutler (225 yards, INT) had a very disappointing day against the Browns.
- Coming into Week 8, the Titans had the league’s worst pass defense, so David Garrard’s performance (139 yards, 2 INT) is a major disappointment.
- Vince Young completed 15/18 passes (for 125 yards and TD) en route to a nice day. He also ran 12 times for 30 yards. If Young wants to get back to what made him so successful in his rookie season, he needs to run the ball.
- Kurt Warner (242 yards, 2 TD, 5 INT) turned the ball over six times.
- Brett Favre (244 yards, 4 TD) stuck it to his old team. He was sharp, but the Packers weren’t able to put much pressure on him.
- Aaron Rodgers (287 yards, 3 TD) played well in a tough situation, or at least in the second half. He is still taking sacks that he shouldn’t be.
Fantasy Fallout, Week 8: RBs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/02/2009 @ 7:30 am)
- Remember when Willis McGahee (3 touches, 3 yards) was eating into Ray Rice’s (28 touches, 108 yards, TD) workload? That’s not happening anymore.
- Knowshon Moreno (12 touches, 35 yards, TD) scored, but Correll Buckhalter (14 touches, 46 yards) got more work in the passing game (6-30).
- LeSean McCoy (13 touches, 92 yards) was quiet most of the day, but busted loose on a 66-yards scamper early in the fourth quarter to put the game away.
- After getting shredded by the Miami running game earlier in the seasons, the Jets shut down both Ronnie Brown (11 carries, 27 yards) and Ricky Williams (8 carries, 27 yards).
- The Jets leaned more on Thomas Jones (27 carries, 102 yards) than expected. Shonn Greene (8 carries, 18 yards) fell back to Earth after a huge Week 7.
- Steven Jackson (25 touches, 166 yards, TD) continues to have a Pro Bowl caliber season for a terrible team.
Read the rest of this entry »
Fantasy Fallout, Week 8: WRs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/02/2009 @ 7:00 am)
- The Ravens did a nice job holding down the Denver passing game. Brandon Marshall (4-24) and Eddie Royal (2-10) didn’t do much.
- Braylon Edwards (4-74-1) and Jerricho Cotchery (3-70) were targeted 10 times and 8 times, respectively.
- Reggie Wayne (12-147-1) was questionable coming in, but had a huge game against a 49ers defense did a good job of keeping the Colts out of the endzone.
- Michael Crabtree (6-81) has quickly become quite startable in PPR formats. Alex Smith targeted him nine times.
- Donnie Avery (1-15) was a no show against a pretty bad Lions pass defense and can’t be trusted in fantasy starting lineups.
Read the rest of this entry »
Fantasy Fallout, Week 8: TEs
Posted by John Paulsen (11/02/2009 @ 6:30 am)
- Owen Daniels (1-22) is reportedly gone for the season, though we won’t know for sure until he has an MRI.
- After a rough start, Kevin Boss (3-70-1) seems to be coming on. Daniels owners may want to pick him up.
- After a couple of quiet weeks, Brent Celek (4-61-1) had a nice day against the Giants.
- Dustin Keller (8-76-1) has been quiet much of the season, but busted out against the Dolphins. He’s another guy that Daniels owners should consider.
- Zach Miller (5-52) has been pretty decent over the last four weeks, averaging 4.3-69-0.3 during that span.
Be sure to check back in a bit for the WR, RB and QB positions.
|