All 2011 Fantasy Articles | 2011 Position Rankings

There seems to be two types of fantasy owners when it comes to drafting starting pitchers:

Fantasy Owner #1: Hello Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez in the early rounds. I’m going to draft at least one stud early and wish the dopes that wait to grab pitchers in the middle to late rounds good luck. Hope they like playing Russian Roulette.

Fantasy Owner #2: While the morons are grabbing supposed studs in the first couple of rounds, I’m loading up on offense since it’s more predictable than figuring out what starters won’t have Zack Grienke-type 2010 campaigns. I’ll grab my pitchers in the middle rounds and be just fine.

No matter which fantasy owner you are, the No. 1 factor when it comes to drafting pitchers is understanding how the scoring system is set up in your league. If you play in a rotisserie league, then you’re probably fine employing Fantasy Owner #2’s philosophy and then making adjustments throughout the year depending on what you need (i.e. trading away saves for strikeouts, or speed for wins and ERA).

On the flip side, if you’re in a head-to-head league where you know a pitcher like Halladay can be the difference between winning and losing a couple of categories, then you may want to think about nabbing a starter early. Again, it’s all about understanding how the scoring is set up in your league.

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All 2011 Fantasy Articles | 2011 Position Rankings

We’ve always viewed outfield as your one-stop shopping when it comes to fantasy baseball. Once your roster has taken shape and you’re looking to address potential weaknesses, the outfield position can be extremely useful.

Obviously we don’t need to sell you on Ryan Bruan, Carl Crawford or Carlos Gonzalez. They’ll go in the first round. We also don’t need to convince you to take Josh Hamilton, Matt Holliday or Matt Kemp, who will all go in the second. We even don’t need to say much about Shin-Soo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen, because you know their value in the third and fourth rounds.

But when you start to get deeper into your draft and you notice that you lack speed or power, that’s when knowing what players can help is beneficial.

Need speed?…

Juan Pierre, White Sox
Pierre gets labeled as a “one category player,” but that’s not really the case. Sure he stole a whopping 68 bases last season, but he also hit .275 and scored 96 runs. Obviously you’re not drafting him for his power, but he’s more than just a base stealer – draft him with confidence.

Michael Bourn, Astros
The problem with Bourn is that he’s usually overrated on draft day. He was one of only three players to steal 50 bases last season and people will overpay to have him on their roster. Unlike Pierre, who’ll score 90-plus runs and hit between .275 and .280, Bourn will probably top out at 85 runs, hit .265 and rack up only 40 RBI. Granted, those numbers are only slightly worse than Pierre’s, but just know that if you draft Bourn, you’re probably overpaying for steals (which maybe you’re fine with).

Raja Davis, Blue Jays
Along with Pierre and Bourn, Davis was one of the three players last year to swipe 50 bags. The problem is that he might not come close to doing it again if he doesn’t draw more walks. That said, he’s projected as the Jays’ starting centerfielder and his defense will give him plenty of opportunities to play. He may not steal 50 bases again this year, but 45 is certainly a reasonable expectation.

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All 2011 Fantasy Articles | 2011 Position Rankings

Third base: it’s almost as bad as shortstop.

In retrospect, we’d like to add a twelfth MLB player we would not want to be in 2011, and that is Jose Bautista. Going undrafted in most leagues, he scored over 200 points more than any other third basemen in one of our leagues last season, which means he now has a giant fantasy bullseye on his chest, and if he doesn’t finish in the top five among third basemen this year, he’ll be considered a bust. The reason? The sixth-ranked third baseman in the draft projections is a second baseman (Martin Prado). Yikes.

“Ski-doosh.”

But fear not, fellow roto-geeks. There are some bargain picks to be had at the hot corner once the big five (Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Ryan Zimmerman, and Bautista) are off the board. Obviously your best bet is to get one of them, but if that is not an option, stock up on as many other positions as you can, and with some luck, these men below will hopefully keep you competitive.

Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox
The Greek God of Walks will obviously do more than just keep you competitive, but you’ll need to wait a few games (ten in most leagues) before you can play him there. Once he’s set, though, just sit back and enjoy the show. And by the show, we mean the shots of Youkilis cursing at himself on the bench whenever he makes an out. Competitive bugger, that Youkilis.

Pablo Sandoval, Giants
The Panda lost 38 pounds this offseason, and is already tearing the cover off the ball in spring training. We love players who have something to prove, and after compiling a limp .268-61-13-63 stat line in 2010, Sandoval is that guy. But is he really sloted to bat eighth in the order? That’s a little disconcerting.

Aramis Ramirez, Cubs
Contract year, ahoy! Yes, the Cubs have an option for 2012, but it’s at $16 million, and it will only be guaranteed if Ramirez wins the MVP or the Cubs go to the World Series. (In other words, it will not be guaranteed.) He looked like his old self by year’s end after a putrid first half, and with the addition of Carlos Pena, the Cubs lineup has the potential to be dangerous. It could also implode at a moment’s notice – witness yesterday’s dugout dispute, which involved the normally laid-back Ramirez – but we expect Aramis to sing for his supper.

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All 2011 Fantasy Articles | 2011 Position Rankings

Abandon hope, all ye who enter here. Shortstop is the new second base, a fantasy wasteland where only six (!) players are projected to be drafted in the first ten rounds. Six, out of a hundred. That’s bad.

“Hello. I’m Derek Jeter, and you’re not.”

Worse, only five of those players are proven fantasy performers year after year, and even that is stretching the truth until it nearly breaks. Truth be told, there is one guy in this group (Hanley Ramirez) that has held up as a reliable fantasy stud. The rest are streaky, as in ‘Will Ferrell in “Old School”‘ streaky. (Tulo, we’re looking at you.) What is a fantasy manager to do once Hanley and Troy Tulowitzki are off the board? For starters, don’t panic, and for God’s sake don’t reach. Continue to take the best guy on the board, and see if one of these guys lands in your lap.

Jose Reyes, Mets
The late, great Sparky Anderson once said, “Just give me 25 guys on the last year of their contracts; I’ll win a pennant every year.” You think he wouldn’t love to have Reyes this year, since he’s essentially auditioning for all of Major League Baseball? The Mets are so bogged down with money issues that there has even been speculation that they will have a hard time paying their players, which makes the likelihood of a contract extension to Reyes unlikely. Meanwhile, the shortstop of the Red Sox, Marco Scutaro, has a player option on his contract for next year, which the club could buy out for $1.5 million. Don’t think for a minute that Reyes doesn’t know this, and will bust his ass to get him some Carl Crawford money. Having said that, don’t bid the moon and the stars to get him. If he comes to you, great. If not, then take a look at…

Marco Scutaro, Red Sox
Reyes’ 2010 stat line was .282-83-11-54-30. Scutaro’s line was .275-92-11-56-5. Nearly identical in every category except steals, and he can be had 11 rounds after Reyes is off the board. If you play in a points league and Reyes is gone, take a deep breath, and remember that the next best thing is a mere 110 picks away. Scutaro is the textbook definition of a value pick, even if he spends the entire year in the 9-hole.

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All 2011 Fantasy Articles | 2011 Position Rankings

We try to give our readers a basic strategy when it comes to our rankings and our strategy for second base is rather simple: Nab one of the top seven guys in the first 1-5 rounds or good luck sifting through the garbage later.

Can you acquire value in guys like Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Brian Roberts and Gordan Beckham later in your draft? Of course, but why not invest one of your first five picks in a top-7 player and not worry about trying to address a thin position later?

If it’s your strategy to fill your 2B spot in Rounds 11-12, then great: We don’t begrudge anyone else’s strategy. But we prefer to nab one of the top 7 players in the early rounds and call it a day. Below are the top 7 in 2011.

Robinson Cano, Yankees
Cano was one of fantasy baseball’s most reliable offensive players in 2010 and it appears as though his down year in ’08 is in the rearview mirror. He finished among the top 3 at his position in batting average, home runs, RBIs and runs scored and is easily the No. 1 fantasy second baseman heading into 2011. Expect numbers similar to last season: .319 BA/103 R/29 HR/109 RBI/3 SB.

Chase Utley, Phillies
Considering he’s already banged up, Utley may scare some owners away on draft day. But he’ll still go in the second round so if you want him, don’t wait. Utley’s best days are probably behind him but he’s still a top-five option at a thin position, so don’t talk yourself out of taking him just because he’s been banged up this spring. (He did rebound nicely after coming back last year, so you don’t want to be the fool that passed on him because of his present injuries only to watch him mash later.)

Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox
Pedroia is now completely healthy after having foot surgery last season and while he might not steal a ton of bases early in the year as he gets back into game shape, he should finish with double-digit swipes when it’s all said and done. You can probably expect 100-plus runs, 15-18 dingers and a .300 average out of the BoSox second baseman in 2011.

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All 2011 Fantasy Articles | 2011 Position Rankings

Here is how deep the first base pool has become: the guy who finished fourth statistically among first basemen, and who hit more home runs than every first baseman not named Albert Pujols, is ranked 12th in CBS’s projections for 2011 (14th if you count two 1B-eligible catchers). Twelve first basemen are projected to knock in over 100 runs (nine accomplished this feat last year), and 11 are projected to hit over 30 home runs (nine accomplished this last year as well). Which means, in theory, you could be the ninth person in your league, or even the last, to draft a first basemen, and you’ll still be good for a 30-100 stat line. Not too shabby.

Big Dog goes ‘Arf’

And to think, that doesn’t include guys who hit 25 home runs or more (add another six). Underneath that group are another dozen hitters capable of blasting 25 dingers, provided you’re flexible in the batting average and strikeout department. First base is deep, kids, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do your due diligence on the position. First, let’s discuss the wounded birds looking to reclaim their 2009 glory.

Kendry Morales, Angels
Yes! I just hit a Grand Slam and won the game for my tea-OW! What the hell just popped in my foot? Even stranger, this bitten-by-home-plate thing happened to two different guys last year. Morales was a beast in 2009, hitting 34 dingers and knocking in 108 runs (He even stole three bases, though his success rate was a dismal 30%), and he’s reasonably well protected with Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter and the ageless Bobby Abreu hitting around him. A safe estimate would be a 5% drop from his 2009 numbers, but he certainly has the potential to do better than that.

Justin Morneau, Twins
We love what a pure hitter Morneau is, but this concussion business is spooky. Football players come back from one after a week or two, while Morneau has been sidelined since July, which makes us wonder: what exactly was he seeing, and are those images still dancing around the periphery? The Twins are smart to be cautious with one of their most prized hitters, but we’re now eight months removed from the injury, and the Twins are still treating him like the boy in the plastic bubble. That’s troubling to put it lightly. His draft value obviously takes a hit – a third rounder last year, he’s a projected late sixth rounder this year – but that also makes him one hell of a steal, if he’s healthy.

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2011 Fantasy Baseball Preview | 2011 Fantasy Baseball Rankings

Designing your draft strategy for catchers can sometimes be a nauseating task. Do you nab Joe Mauer in the second round and not worry about the position again until you add depth at the end of your draft, or do you fill other positions first and go for value late?

One strategy that you might want to consider is passing on the top 2-3 backstops (in our rankings that would constitute Mauer, Brian McCann and Victor Martinez) and waiting to select your catcher until at least Round 8. That way, when the pitchers start to fly off the board in Rounds 4 through 7, you’re not worried about investing a pick in McCann and Martinez when there will be plenty of value starting in Round 8.

But which players will be available then? Below is the tier we think you target starting in Round 8. If you think one of these catchers will fall to Round 9, 10 or 11, by all means: wait. But Rounds 8-11 is where you’ll find great value without having to shop for your starting backstop later in the draft when the pickings are slim and the value is scattered.

Buster Posey, Giants
After bursting onto the scene last year to help the Giants win their first World Series in over 55 years, Posey might not last until Round 8. But if he does and you feel good about your roster to that point, don’t waste any time announcing his name at your draft. He hit .305 with 18 dingers and 67 RBI while scoring 58 runs in just 443 plate appearances last season. He has the maturity of a 10-year veteran but is only a second-year pro. The Giants’ lineup is still weak as a whole, but Posey should hit around .300 again with 20-plus HRs, 80 RBI and 70 runs scored.

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I thought the other one was getting pretty dated, so I like the new design. What do you think?

I don’t follow baseball, but I snapped this photo of the Fantasy Sports Trade Association fantasy baseball experts draft and thought a few readers might get some use out of it.

Click on the picture for a bigger version.

Anthony, maybe you can comment about this?

Anthony’s Take: I sure as heck can, John. Nice work on the photo.

The first thing that jumps out to me is Braun being selected with the second overall pick. With guys like Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford on the board, I’m a little surprised to see Braun taken that early, although he certainly contributes across the board (he hit .304 last year with 25 HR, 103 RBI, 101 R and 14 SB). It’ll be interesting to see what Car-Go does for an encore after hitting .336 with 24 home runs, 117 RBI, 111 runs and 26 SB in a breakout 2010. He plays at a shallow position so I can see why he went early, although taking him ahead of Longoria and Crawford may have been a stretch. The team I really like is “Team 3,” which scooped Hanley Ramirez in Round 1, Matt Holliday in Round 2 and then went back-to-back young pitchers in Lincecum and Kershaw in Rounds 3 and 4. He also added some solid contributors in Ichiro and Swisher, and if Morales can bounce back from the injury he suffered last year, then he might be a steal in Round 5. In a 13-team draft, the talent gets watered down quickly, but he did well with his first five picks. “Team 8” looks strong too, with Tulo, Josh Hamilton, King Felix, Morneau (if he can stay healthy) and Hamels. He did very well to nab Matt Cain in the 8th round, although he needs good seasons out of Hudson and Jurrjens if he’s going to finish in the money this year.

This is a great peak at an insider’s board. It’s interesting to see who the so-called experts picked in the first couple of rounds.