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2009 NFL Week 11 Picks & Predictions

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 22:11:27 +0000

Here are my locks (locks, ha!) for Week 11 in the NFL:

Chargers (6-3) at Broncos (6-3), 4:15PM ET
Denver quarterback Kyle Orton is questionable this week with an ankle injury, which means Chris Simms could make his first start of the season. Simms looked Brady Quinn-like bad in a loss to the Redskins last week and I wouldn’t expect much out of him if I were a Broncos fan. If Simms starts, I fully expect the Chargers to load up to stop Knowshon Moreno and force the former Bucs’ QB to beat them through the air. It’s not going to happen and even if Orton does start, how effective can he be on a bum ankle? About as effective as he was last year for the Bears on a bum ankle? The Chargers are hot, have revenge on their minds and are eyeing sole possession of first place in the AFC West. Plus, Philip Rivers is playing just as well as Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Kurt Warner. I’m taking the Chargers to win outright and to cover.
Odds: Chargers –2.5.
Prediction: Chargers 31, Broncos 16.

Redskins (3-6) at Cowboys (6-3), 1:00PM ET
Now that the Cowboys have once again established that they’re still the same inconsistent team under Wade Phillips as they’ve always been, I’m wondering if the Redskins can pull off a huge upset this week in Dallas. Then again, without the brutal play of Chris Simms’ aiding them in victory, I can’t see Washington winning this weekend. In fact, I see this game being a blow out since the Redskins will once again be without running back Clinton Portis and Albert Haynesworth is doubtful to play as well. The Redskins have shown the ability to stop the pass, but if the Cowboys can control this game with Marion Barber and Felix Jones then Washington doesn’t stand a chance. Dallas’ offense should rebound from its horrid performance last week as long as the ground attack can help set things up for Tony Romo and the passing game. Washington just doesn’t have the players to compete with Dallas for four quarters and given how bad the Redskins’ O-line has played this season, they’re going to have trouble stopping the Cowboys’ solid pass rush.
Odds: Cowboys –11
Prediction: Cowboys 34, Redskins 13.

Falcons (5-4) at Giants (5-4), 1:00PM ET
I would love to predict a victory for my Falcons this Sunday in East Rutherford, but I just don’t see it happening. Michael Turner is out with a high ankle sprain, Matt Ryan is in the midst of a complete funk and the defense can’t stop the run. Throw in the fact that the Giants are at home and should be well rested coming off the bye and I see trouble for Atlanta. Ryan and backups Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood are certainly capable of leading the Falcons to victory this weekend and the road team has won the past seven games in this series. But “Matty Ice” just hasn’t looked like the same player as he did earlier in the year and if he can’t cut down on the turnovers than the Giants will prevail. Since both of these teams are desperate for a win, I envision a tight game throughout. But all the intangibles are in the G-Men’s favor and I see them ending their four-game skid.
Odds: Giants –6.5.
Prediction: Giants 20, Falcons 16.

Eagles (5-4) at Bears (4-5), 8:20PM ET
Looking at both of these teams’ records, one might suggest that they’re both on the same level as one another. But nothing could be further from the truth. Outside of Lance Briggs and the struggling Jay Cutler, the Bears simply don’t have the talent to match up with the other contenders in the NFC Wild Card race – including the Eagles. Matt Forte is a good, young running back but he’s useless thanks to an inept offensive line filled with veterans whose better days are behind them (Orlando Pace, Olin Kreutz), fringe starters (Frank Omiyale, Josh Beekman, Kevin Shaffer) and one underachieving youngster (Chris Williams). The Eagles may be struggling at the moment, but they’ve got better overall talent than the Bears and I think they’ll prove that this Sunday night at Solider Field. Cutler has been brutal in night games (not that necessarily means anything) and continues to think that he has to do everything on his own (which means a lot). If Chicago can’t run the ball (they haven’t all year) then Philadelphia should soundly beat them on their own turf.
Odds: Eagles –2.5.
Prediction: Eagles 20, Bears 10.

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Carroll says he won’t forget Harbaugh, Stanford’s 2-point attempt

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 19:30:55 +0000

USC’s Pete Carroll says he’s over Stanford head coach John Harbaugh going for two when the Cardinal were already up 48-21 in the second half of their victory over the Trojans last Saturday. But Carroll also said that he wouldn’t forget about the play either.

From SPORTSbyBROOKS.com:

MASON: What do you think, now a couple of days removed, of Harbaugh going for the two-point conversion?

CARROLL: Well, really, even since the time that it happened, you know, I haven’t bothered with it, and I know everybody else has and taken a lot of time to kinda discuss it and all. I think, you know, it is what you think it is, you know, it’s a statement that you can take away that maybe they were trying to accomplish something that seems out of the ordinary, you know, I don’t really care, to tell you the truth, it doesn’t matter.

And when you look at it like, uh, they’re ahead in the game and they’re in command of it, they really get to do whatever they want to do, and it doesn’t bother me to worry about it anymore, you know what I mean? Jim came out and said what he wanted to say, you know, a couple different times about it and, you know, to me it’s dropped, I don’t care.
Will I forget it? No, I’m not forgetting it. But uh, you know, to me, it’s in the past.

What’s funny is that everyone is concentrating on how Stanford went for two to make a statement to USC, but what Carroll and everyone needs to focus on is that the Cardinal whipped the Trojans’ ass for four quarters. It wasn’t just one play; Stanford owned USC on the Trojans’ home field for 60 minutes. That’s the bigger deal.

So Carroll truly does need to forget about the one play (albeit, an embarrassing play) and concentrate on what has happened this year to his program. To hell with the two-point conversation: How does that once stout USC defense allow 36 (Oregon State), 47 (Oregon) and 55 (Stanford) points over the course of a four game span?

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Red Sox would “love” to have Jason Bay back

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:00:38 +0000

At least, this according to WEEI.com:

Speaking at an event to honor Red Sox principal owner John Henry, who received the Woodrow Wilson Award for corporate sponsorship, team president/CEO Larry Lucchino expressed his organization’s desire to re-sign Jason Bay.

“Very much so,” Lucchino said when asked if the Red Sox wanted the outfielder back. “We’d love to have him back. He’s in many ways the personification of a player we want here.”

The Red Sox’ exclusive period to negotiate with Bay runs out at midnight Thursday.

Bay will draw plenty of interest on the open market, but the Red Sox certainly have the cash to re-sign him. It just depends on whether or not a more lucrative offer comes along and Bay bites on it. (Translation: It just depends on whether or not Bay wants to go the way of CC Sabathia and Mark Teixeira and play for the Yankees next season.)

What will be interesting is whether or not he heads back to the NL on his own accord. He has proven that he can produce in either league, but usually hitters want to play in the NL because of the weaker pitching. Any number of teams could use Bay’s services, but it’ll all depend on which team will open up its wallet and which ones he feels gives him an opportunity to win.

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No. 12 Oklahoma State hangs on vs. Colorado

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 15:00:20 +0000

Without quarterback Zac Robinson (concussion), No. 12 Oklahoma State was almost victims of the first big upset of Week 12.

The Cowboys needed a fourth quarter touchdown reception by Justin Blackmon from Brandon Weeden and two big defensive stops to beat Colorado, 31-28 on Thursday night.

Turnovers almost doomed OK State. They lost three fumbles on the night (two on muffed punts) and junior quarterback Alex Cate was also intercepted to give the Buffalos scoring opportunities the entire night.

Cate struggled to make an impact while starting in place of the injured Robinson. In fact, he didn’t complete a pass and finished 0-for-9 with the one interception. The sophomore Weeden had to come in and rescue the sputtering Cowboy offense, which he successfully did by completing 10-of-15 passes for 168 yards and two touchdowns.

Of course, OK State’s offense got plenty of production out of senior running back Keith Toston, who compiled 170 yards with one touchdown on 30 carries. On the night, the Cowboys rushed for 232 yards and held Colorado to just 13 yards on the ground.

With this win, Oklahoma State keeps its slim hopes alive in the Big 12 South. The Cowboys would need to beat Oklahoma next week and have Texas (6-0) lose both its remaining games in order to leapfrog the Longhorns in the standings. But chances are Texas won’t slip up against a struggling Kansas, which has lost five in a row and whose head coach is facing allegations of player abuse.

Panthers blow opportunity to get back into playoff chase

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 14:00:42 +0000

I don’t get the Carolina Panthers.

One week after playing inspired in a 28-19 win over division rival Atlanta, the Panthers laid a dud in a 24-17 loss to the Dolphins on Thursday night in Carolina.

After they beat the Falcons, some pundits started believing in the Panthers again. Hey, why not? They beat the Cardinals in Arizona in Week 8, hung with a powerhouse Saints team in New Orleans in Week 9, and beat a good Falcons team in Week 10.

But after their performance Thursday night, it’s hard to believe that John Fox’s team will play consistent enough throughout the rest of the season to make a postseason run. Jake Delhomme is too mistake-prone, the loss of Jordan Gross kills the offensive line (the Dolphins sacked Delhomme four times), and the defense can’t stop the run.

At best, this is a 7-9 Panthers team. They’ll play hard enough for Fox to stay somewhat alive in the Wild Card race, but they blew a huge opportunity this week to earn a victory at home and put pressure on the Falcons to win in New York (vs. the Giants) on Sunday.

On the other side, the Dolphins still have a pulse at 5-5. Granted, given that they play in a tough AFC they don’t have much of a pulse, but considering they’re still alive without Chad Pennington and Ronnie Brown is quite an accomplishment.

Ricky Williams really stepped up in the absence of Brown, rushing for 119 yards with two touchdowns on 22 carries. He also caught two passes for 19 yards and a touchdown, which proves he can be multi-dimensional.

My TSR cohort John Paulsen made a good point the other day in that Williams doesn’t have the same wear and tear on him as most 32-year olds, given that he was out of football for a couple years. He won’t have the opportunity to face a suspect Carolina front seven every week, but if he continues to run the way he did on Thursday night then he’ll give Miami a chance to win on most game days.

Kansas’ Mangino defends himself following allegations of player abuse

Anthony Stalter — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:00:37 +0000

Kansas head football coach Mark Manginio, who is facing allegations of verbal abuse and inappropriate physical contact against players, defended himself on a sports radio station in Kansas City on Thursday.

Per ESPN.com:

“We are sending kids out into the world prepared,” Mangino told the radio station. “But I can’t do the work of some parents, what they should have done before [the players] got to me. Some of these guys are bitter, they are bitter and [the allegations] are about that.

“There are some things that happen for 18 years of their lives that I can’t change in four years of college. Can’t do it. Can’t change their behaviors, can’t change their attitudes.”

Kansas athletic director Lew Perkins has launched an investigation into Mangino allegedly grabbing, yelling at and putting his finger in the chest of senior linebacker Arist Wright, who had been laughing during a walkthrough or practice prior to the Colorado game on Oct. 17, two people briefed on the situation told ESPN’s Joe Schad on Tuesday night.

Since then, several former Kansas players come forward with allegations of verbal abuse.

“There are people who want to embarrass the program for their 15 minutes of fame,” Mangino told the radio station.

This isn’t the first time that the KU football program has come under some kind of investigation under Mangino’s watch.

In 2005, Kansas’ athletic department reported to the NCAA that several members of the football program had committed academic fraud under Mangino. In 2006, a graduate assistant was found to have supplied answers to correspondence courses being taken by potential athletes. As a result, the football team was limited for two years in its recruitment of junior college transfers and also lost two scholarships for each of the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Granted, Mangino said that he didn’t know anything was going on and did take responsibility for his staff. But one has to wonder whether or not these recent allegations will lead to his ousting at KU if he’s found guilty of any wrong doing.

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Biggest injury concern: Orton, Turner, Brown or Benson?

Anthony Stalter — Thu, 19 Nov 2009 23:15:57 +0000

Last week, several teams’ playoff hopes took major hits as key players all left their respective games due to various injuries.

The Broncos (Kyle Orton), Falcons (Michael Turner), Dolphins (Ronnie Brown) and Bengals (Cedric Benson) seem to be bitten he hardest by the injury bug but which injury should concern their respective teams the most? Let’s break down all four situations.

Broncos: Without Orton, Denver stands little chance of beating the Chargers at home this Sunday and even less of a chance of winning the AFC West. Orton isn’t Peyton Manning, but he might as well be the Broncos’ version of the star Colts’ QB because Chris Simms proved last week that he isn’t capable of keeping Denver afloat if Orton misses significant time. Now maybe with more preparation Simms will be better, but chances are the Broncos’ hopes of making the playoffs will fall flat with him under center. Orton says that he will play this weekend, even though he has torn ligaments in his left ankle. He admitted last year that he shouldn’t have tried to grit out a right ankle injury when he was playing for the Bears, so there’s a chance that he’s about to make the same mistake twice. This Sunday will be a good indication of how severe Orton’s injury really is.

Falcons: After getting off to a slow start, Turner was back in 2008 form the past couple weeks and even compiled 111 yards on only nine carries against the Panthers last Sunday before suffering a high ankle sprain. Usually those types of injuries take months to heel, but the Falcons don’t seem concerned about Turner missing more than a couple of weeks. The problem is that the Falcons are in the midst of a Wild Card chase in the NFC and they need their bruising back on the field – especially as Matt Ryan continues to struggle in his second year. Atlanta has capable backups in Jason Snelling and Jerious Norwood, but the latter can’t stay healthy and the former doesn’t have much experience. If Ryan can step up and prove he can lead the Falcons through the air, then Turner can rest up and be ready in time for a late-season run. If Ryan falters again like he has been, then Turner might feel the need to rush back from his injury sooner than he (or the team) intends.

Dolphins: Miami had to end Brown’s season after he injured his foot in a win over the Buccaneers last Sunday. Ricky Williams has been superb this season, but Brown is the key to the Dolphins’ Wildcat success and he instills a toughness that can’t be matched by Williams alone. If Pat White can step up and help run the Wildcat, then Miami will keep its slim playoff hopes alive. But they need to win tonight in Carolina or else they’ll likely fall to far behind in a tight conference.

Bengals: Cincinnati is probably the best off because Benson’s hip injury doesn’t seem as serious as the alignments bothering Orton, Turner and Brown. He has been ruled out against the Raiders this week, but I imagine if the game had playoff implications that Benson would be on the field. With a solid two-game lead (tie-breaker included) over Pittsburgh in the AFC North, Cincinnati can afford to rest Benson this week and still beat a bad Oakland team this Sunday. Hopefully he’ll recover quickly and if he doesn’t, Cincinnati has capable backups in Bernard Scott and the recently signed Larry Johnson to help fill the void until Benson is healthy again.

Of these injuries, I would say Orton and Turner’s are of biggest concern given how they can affect the Broncos and Falcons’ playoff hopes. Losing Brown hurts, but even with him on the field the Dolphins’ postseason chances are slim at best and Benson should be back in a week or two for Cincinnati.

If Orton can play on the injured ankle and not suffer any setbacks, then Denver should be okay. But if they have to rely on Simms for longer than a game or two, they’re toast.

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