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Happy 4th of July!

Posted on Friday 4 July 2008

This is not really sports related (though, in a way, the girls are promoting swimming), but I saw this over at The World of Isaac and had to post it here.

Is there a better way to celebrate our independence than to look a few models wearing American flag bikinis? Probably, but let’s take a minute and salute the flag.

John Paulsen @ 1:54 pm
Filed under: Video & Pictures
Does Favre want to play for the Panthers?

Posted on Thursday 3 July 2008

I hesitate to even post this, because the “article” doesn’t cite any real source, but ProFootballTalk.com is “reporting” that Brett Favre’s agent Bus Cook is “privately” saying that Favre wants to play for the Carolina Panthers.

For his part, Favre tried to squash the rumors yesterday saying that there was nothing to the reports that he wanted to come back, but this is the internet age, so the rumors won’t die… especially if they’re true.

Only time will tell.

John Paulsen @ 3:37 pm
Filed under: NFL and Fantasy Football and External NFL and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Who was the man behind the curtain?

Posted on Thursday 3 July 2008

Elton Brand is dominating the NBA landscape right now, so if you’re interested in reading another take on how we got to this point, check out this post over at Clips Nation. It ponders the big question - how did Baron Davis and Elton Brand both know to opt out?

John Paulsen @ 3:20 pm
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Scoop Jackson said something stupid today

Posted on Thursday 3 July 2008

I’m not sure why, but I was watching ESPN’s “First Take” this morning and the subject of Elton Brand came up. Scoop Jackson and Skip Bayless debated what Brand should do now that he has two offers on the table, one from the Clippers and one from the Warriors.

Jackson said - and I’m paraphrasing here - that since the Warriors made Brand a max offer that it is “honorable” to consider it and go and talk to them about it because this might not be the last contract that Brand will sign and he might need the Warriors down the road. He went on to say that if the Clippers match the Warriors offer (which they can’t) then all bets are off.

What?

I don’t find myself agreeing with Bayless too often, but he was (as usual) acting incredulous that Jackson could call such actions “honorable” since it was Brand who told the Clippers to go after Baron Davis when he opted out and even said that Brand recruited Davis to come to L.A. to play with him.

The honorable thing to do is to forsake the extra $20 million and re-up with the Clippers.

Bayless knows this, I know this and I suspect even Jackson knows this. This was probably part of the manufactured conflict that is so prevalent on ESPN these days. It’s not enough to just discuss issues intelligently; there has to be an argument because that’s (apparently) what gets ratings.

What a sad world we live in that Jackson has to say something so stupid just to get people to watch.

John Paulsen @ 3:02 pm
Filed under: NBA and Television and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Brand must re-sign with the Clippers

Posted on Thursday 3 July 2008

Okay, he doesn’t have to re-sign with the Clippers, but he needs to.

As more details come out about Brand’s situation, it has become clear that when Brand elected to opt out of the final year of his contract, he and the Clippers had an understanding about how the team would proceed in free agency.

From the LA Times

When reached by phone Monday shortly after choosing to become a free agent, [Brand] referred to the Clippers as “we” and said that he would like the Clippers to land a player “solid at the point guard spot,” before he would agree to re-sign with them.

At that time Falk said that Brand’s decision to opt out had partly been made to allow the Clippers breathing space under the salary cap to sign an impact free agent.

Were Brand and Falk just blowing smoke when they said that one of the purposes of Brand’s decision was to free up cap space so that the team could sign another star? Were they expecting the Clippers to get a player like Baron Davis for less than $13 million per season, leaving more money for Brand? What about all the talk about how Brand really appreciated what the Celtics did this season when their three stars came together and put their egos aside in the interest of one common goal?

From ESPN.com

One source said that Brand, during negotiations on a contract extension in June, specifically told Clippers management that Davis was the player he hoped they’d pursue if he became available in free agency.

Okay, Elton… Your plan worked. You opted out. The Clippers had the cap space to successfully sign Davis. Now they’ve offered you a five-year deal worth $70 million. That’s a lot of long-term security for a guy coming off a torn Achilles. The Clippers stepped up and acquired the guard you wanted to play with. Now put your money where your mouth is, set your ego aside, and take the Clippers’ offer. Sure, Golden State can offer you more money, but only because the Clippers went out and did what you asked them to do - sign Baron Davis.

If you jet for Golden State now, your clean image will be tainted forever. Reporters will keep digging to find out exactly what you told the Clippers before and after you opted out. The truth will be revealed and you will probably look like a Judas. Is the public relations hit you’ll take worth the extra dough?

Doubtful.

John Paulsen @ 11:56 am
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Jay Mariotti is a stone cold hypocrite

Posted on Wednesday 2 July 2008

Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti has always been mildly irritating, but I haven’t been exposed to him enough to be truly bothered by his shenanigans.

Well, that changed today when Mariotti (and his oddly-coiffed eyebrows) invaded the “Pardon the Interruption” set to act as co-host with J.A. Adande. The duo discussed the news that Brett Favre may return to football and Mariotti went on this rant about how everyone is sick of Favre’s tease. He brought up his boy Michael Jordan and said that he never teased the public with his retirement.

I don’t know what’s worse, Mariotti’s inane comment or the fact that Adande didn’t call him on it. Michael Jordan retired… three times. How is that not a tease? Sure, when he said he was going to retire he did walk away from the game for a year or two, but he came back twice. How is that better than what Favre has done? At least Favre’s struggles with the thought of retirement are understandable. He didn’t walk away in the middle of his prime and waste a few of his best years trying to play another sport. This all started when Favre had a bad season or two and people started to question his ability. Then he comes back last season and has a MVP-caliber year.

Why can’t people understand that this is a difficult decision to make?

John Paulsen @ 6:01 pm
Filed under: NFL and External NFL and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Did Favre ask the Packers to release him?

Posted on Wednesday 2 July 2008

This story is getting stranger by the minute.

Just hours after news broke that Brett Favre might be getting the itch to play another season, the Wisconsin State Journal is reporting that Favre has already contacted the team about returning and the Packers rebuffed him. The conversation ended with Favre’s agent, Bus Cook, demanding that his client be released and the Packers refusing to do so.

However, an NFL source said Wednesday afternoon that Favre — or Cook on his behalf — actually contacted the Packers “within the past few weeks” about returning, and the conversation ended in him asking the club for his release. The Packers refused.

The source wouldn’t say why Favre would’ve asked to be released, but the logical reason he’d have made such a request would be because the team told him it had moved on with new starter Aaron Rodgers and did not want him back. The Packers also could’ve been testing Favre’s resolve to see how serious he really is about playing again.

The Packers placed Favre on the reserve/retired list on April 25 and continue to hold his rights, which they could trade to an interested team if Favre wants to come back and is willing to do so with another club.

If Favre is serious about reporting to training camp — the first practice is July 28 — and the Packers are committed to moving on, it would set up a potentially awkward parting of the ways between the franchise and its preeminent star. Favre could demand to be activated from the reserve/retired list, and that would give the Packers three options: Re-activate him, release him or trade him.

The thought of Favre playing for another team makes me sick to my stomach. The last thing I want to see would be for this relationship to get contentious. If Favre is serious about coming back and serious about the commitment it would take, I say let him come back. Apologize to Aaron Rodgers and ask him kindly to wait another year for his shot.

I do like the theory that the Packers are testing Favre to see how serious he is about returning, but this situation has the potential to get very ugly very quickly.

John Paulsen @ 5:47 pm
Filed under: NFL and External NFL and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Warriors offer Brand max contract

Posted on Wednesday 2 July 2008

It’s all fair in love and war… or in this case, love and basketball.

A day after the news broke that Baron Davis agreed to sign with the Clippers, his old team turned around and offered a max contract to the Clippers’ best player (and supposed Davis running-mate) Elton Brand.

Since the Clippers have agreed to terms with Davis, it was believed that the most they could offer Brand something in the neighborhood of a six-year deal worth $81 million. The LA Times is reporting that the Warriors offered a five-year deal worth $100 million.

So what will Brand do? Well, he recently implied that he liked what the Celtics did when a few stars checked their egos at the door and came together for a common purpose. But none of those guys had to take a major paycut or turn down an extra $6.5 million per season. My guess is that if Brand was lobbying Davis prior to the Clippers/Davis agreement, that he’ll take less money and stay in L.A. If not, all bets are off. If you put Brand on the Warriors, they’re certainly a playoff-caliber team. One could argue that Brand would have a better supporting cast in Oakland with the likes of Monta Ellis and Steven Jackson roaming the perimeter along with Andris Biedrins and Brandan Wright in the middle (assuming the team successfully re-signs both Biedrins and Ellis).

So will Brand put his money where is mouth is and take a pay cut to play with another star?

What was looking like a pretty boring free agency period has suddenly become quite interesting.

John Paulsen @ 4:28 pm
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Is Brett Favre getting the “itch” to play again?

Posted on Wednesday 2 July 2008

ESPN is reporting that “sources close to the team and player” say that Brett Favre may be getting the “itch” to play again as a result of his family “tugging” him to return to the Packers.

Favre has communicated his potential desire to coach Mike McCarthy but talks have not advanced to a substantive stage, a Packers source said.

The source said the Packers would be reluctant to open the door for Favre because “Brett retired for the right reasons, even though I know his family is tugging on him [to play].”

However, Favre’s agent downplayed the likelihood that the quarterback could un-retire or that he was prepared to report to camp July 28.

“As far as I know, right now, Brett Favre is retired and until he tells me something different, that’s what it is,” James “Bus” Cook, Favre’s agent, said.

If Favre decides that he absolutely wants to play this season, the Packers could be confronted with a sensitive issue. The entire offseason has been spent preparing Aaron Rodgers to play quarterback to the point where “the offensive scheme has evolved” and, psychologically, closing the door on Favre’s legendary 17-year career.

If the Packers resist a stronger push by Favre to return, sources speculate that the quarterback could press the team to release him from his contract so that he could seek a job with another team. A league official said that Favre could force a decision by asking the Packers, in writing, to reinstate him to active status. The team would have to comply or release him.

Regular readers know that I’ve been a Packer fan since I learned how to walk and I’d love to see #4 under center again. But I have mixed feelings about this. Psychologically and emotionally, I just recently got over the fact that Favre retired and that we have a new quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, to rally around. What would Favre’s return do to his state of mind? By most accounts, Rodgers has looked great in the minicamps, so it would have to be demoralizing for him to take a back seat to a guy who can’t decide whether or not he wants to stay retired.

Are the Packers a better team with Favre under center this season? Probably. Are they a better team two or three years down the road? I’m not so sure. As much as I’d like to see Favre come out of retirement and lead Green Bay to the Super Bowl, chances are that’s going to happen. Maybe it’s time to move on and see what this kid Rodgers can do.

Honestly, I’m really torn about this news.

John Paulsen @ 4:00 pm
Filed under: NFL and Fantasy Football and External NFL and Rumors & Gossip
The Rookie: Michael Beasley, Episode 4

Posted on Wednesday 2 July 2008

Check out the fourth installment of ESPN’s video diary for rookie Michael Beasley. The cameras follow Michael as he waits nervously for the start of the NBA Draft all the way to his introduction with the Miami Heat.


John Paulsen @ 2:59 pm
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and NBA Draft and External Sports and Video & Pictures
Where will Corey Maggette land?

Posted on Wednesday 2 July 2008

Several teams are courting unrestricted free agent Corey Maggette. Orlando, Boston, San Antonio, Philadelphia and Utah have all expressed an interest in signing the athletic wing, but only Philly has enough cap space to offer more than the mid-level exception, which starts around $5.5 million. If Elton Brand decides to re-sign with the Clippers, the word is that the team has to renounce their rights to Maggette, which would seem to make a sign-and-trade complicated if not impossible.

Will Maggette end up signing for the mid-level? If so, he would have his pick of contenders and whoever gets him will be scoring a great deal. Maggette is one of the best slashers in the league and gets to the line better than any other guard or forward in the league averaging more than 25 minutes per game. His FTA/FGA ratio (0.686) is second best among all players averaging at least that many minutes. (Dwight Howard is first with a ratio of 0.913, but that’s because he can’t shoot it from the line.)

Of those teams listed, I think Maggette would be a great fit with the Spurs, the Magic and the Jazz. Those three teams lack wings that can penetrate and finish. The Celtics are the dark horse. I don’t know how many minutes Maggette will see with Paul Pierce and Ray Allen already on the wings, but the C’s are probably Maggette’s best shot at a ring.

But the Sixers could potentially offer the most money if they fail in their bid to steal Josh Smith from the Hawks. However, Maggette’s skill set is quite similar to Andre Iguodala’s, so it’s not clear how the two would fit together, especially with rising star Thaddeus Young on the roster.

John Paulsen @ 12:42 pm
Filed under: NBA and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Baron Davis headed to the Clippers

Posted on Wednesday 2 July 2008

He can’t sign on the dotted line until July 9th, but Baron Davis has a verbal agreement in place to join the Los Angeles Clippers.

Sources told ESPN.com that Davis, 29, will receive a five-year deal worth an estimated $65 million.

“It’s tough, but you have to do what’s best,” said Davis, his usually bushy beard trimmed short below large black-rimmed glasses. “You have to do what’s fair. I’m happy with where I’m going. A big reason is because of the impact and the things that I can do going forward. I knew I could have done them here and created all kinds of good things and positive things in the community, and ultimately, me going home helps me make an impact on young kids.”

He cited only vague reasons for the decision Tuesday night, but Davis could have been upset by Nelson’s recent vows to play the Warriors’ young players more next season, even at the expense of a few victories.

What a difference 48 hours makes. Just two days ago, it looked as if Davis would play out the final year of his contract with Golden State. Now, his decision to opt out plus his decision to sign with the Clippers may have a ripple effect throughout the league. What if Gilbert Arenas decides to take the Warriors’ offer? Will Elton Brand agree to a slight pay cut to remain in L.A. or will his camp push for a trade with Miami despite the Davis signing? Where is Corey Maggette going to land?

I like the signing by the Clippers, but it all depends on Davis’ health. He has missed significant time in the past, but $13 million a season is worth it for a healthy Baron Davis. His numbers are likely to take a dip as the Clippers play at a much slower pace than the Warriors do. With Maggette likely gone (unless he’s willing to sign a deal for the mid-level, which is a possibility in this tough market) there is a hole at shooting guard. Cuttino Mobley is under contract, but his game seems to be on the decline. The team drafted Eric Gordon to fill that role, but there’s no telling if the rookie is ready for prime time. One possibility to would be to offer Denver’s J.R. Smith a mid-level deal. That would produce a formidable lineup of Davis, Smith, Al Thornton, Brand and Chris Kaman. Offensively, that’s a very solid group.

If not, Gordon is going to have to grow up quickly.

John Paulsen @ 1:13 am
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Ron Artest regrets decision not to opt out

Posted on Tuesday 1 July 2008

Maybe I should be an agent.

Ever since Ron Artest publicly stated that he did not intend to opt out, I questioned the decision. Why play out the final year of a contract that pays $7.4 million when you could (at worst) sign a five-year deal at the mid-level for almost $34 million? Now, after Elton Brand and Baron Davis decided to opt out, Artest regrets his decision to stay in Sacramento.

“I don’t see myself with [the] Kings beyond 2008-09… I think I made the biggest mistake by staying in my contract and I have to live with it,” Artest said. “I had some misleading information [in making the] decision on not opting out.”

I realize that Artest’s skills make him worth much more than the mid-level, which would pay around $6.5 M per season, but his off the court issues make him a risky proposition. It is doubtful that even next summer, when there are a number of teams projected to have salary cap flexibility, that any title contender is going to pony up $10 million-plus for Artest. Why not take the guaranteed $34 million and pick your destination?

Since he has a very favorable contract and is still playing at a high level, it’s very likely that Artest will be traded before next season’s trade deadline. But he’s lost control over his destiny.

John Paulsen @ 5:54 pm
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Fast and furious start to free agency

Posted on Tuesday 1 July 2008

The NBA free agency period usually starts with a bang, and this one is no different.

The Wizards signed Antwan Jamison to a deal worth $50 million over four years. Jamison is 31, so this contract isn’t going to look very good in its final year or two, but at $12.5 million, the Wizards didn’t do so bad… With Baron Davis opting out, the Warriors made a five-year, $100 millon offer to Gilbert Arenas. This is bad news for the Wizards, who were going to make a similar offer before the Warriors suddenly had a ton of cap space. Now Washington has offered a max contract worth $124 million over six years. I don’t think Arenas is a “max” player, even when healthy, so I don’t like this contract. It looks like the Wizards are scared to death that Arenas might bolt… There are rumors flying that the Clippers are going to make a run at Davis. With Elton Brand opting out, it gives L.A. the flexibility to sign Davis and then re-sign Brand… Jose Calderon has agreed in principle to a deal with the Raptors. I’m interested to see how much he signed for. Calderon is highly productive and a little underrated due to his limited minutes and low profile playing in Canada.

John Paulsen @ 11:41 am
Filed under: NBA and External NBA and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Yardbarker’s lovely ladies of the Euro Cup

Posted on Monday 30 June 2008

Our friends over at Yardbarker just posted a bunch of photos of the beautiful ladies at the Euro Cup. I think this is my favorite, though it’s a tough call…

I love Portugal, too. Can we be friends?

John Paulsen @ 4:49 pm
Filed under: General Sports and External Sports and Video & Pictures
2008 NBA Free Agency Primer

Posted on Monday 30 June 2008

7/1 Update: In surprising moves, Baron Davis and Elton Brand did indeed decide to opt out.

The NBA free agency period starts on Tuesday, and we know who will be available this summer. Gilbert Arenas, Baron Davis, Elton Brand and Corey Maggette have opted out of the final years of their respective contracts and have become free agents. Shawn Marion, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest and Jermaine O’Neal decided not to opt out.

Below is a list of the top 10 unrestricted and top 10 restricted free agents based on total value, which means I’ll take into account each player’s production, age, upside and estimated asking price. Unrestricted free agents can sign with any team that makes them an offer. Restricted free agents can sign offer sheets from other teams, but their current team has the right to match that offer, which is usually the case.

I’ll also list John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) for each player, which allows us to compare guys that play different positions.

UNRESTRICTED

1. Elton Brand, PF ($15 M - $17 M per year)
PER: 18.04 (15th in PF)
Brand decided to opt out but said it was his intention to stay with the Clippers. This summer, only the Sixers ($23 M) and the Grizzlies ($14 M) have significant space to sign a big-name free agent without having to negotiate a sign-and-trade. Brand probably won’t play for Memphis (and it’s doubtful that they’d spend the money this summer), but Philly is an option. Brand has expressed an interest in the Sixers, though it is believed that he’d rather play out his career in L.A. or go to Miami, who signed him to an offer sheet a few years ago. (However, there are rumblings of a Brand-for-Shawn Marion swap.) For their part, the Sixers have stated that they are trying to build a roster in the shape of the Detroit Pistons, who don’t have any monster contracts. With that in mind, it is unlikely that Brand will land in Philly.

2. Corey Maggette, GF ($7 M - $9 M per year)
PER: 19.43 (6th in SF)
Maggette opted out of the final year of his contract, which would have paid him $8.4 million. He hasn’t been very happy with the Clippers and is looking for a way out, though the team has said that it is a priority to re-sign both Brand and Maggette. Orlando seems like a good fit. The Magic could use an athletic slasher who can shoot it and Maggette fits the bill. He is one of the best in the league at getting to the line and the Magic could use his skills since Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu aren’t great penetrators. Since Orlando has no cap space, the best they could offer would be a mid-level deal, which would be (roughly) in the five-year, $34 million range. Is that enough for Maggette to make the move or will he re-sign with the Clippers for more?

3. Baron Davis, PG ($14 M - $16 M)
PER: 19.87 (8th in PG)
Popular opinion was that Davis wouldn’t walk away from the final year of his contract. Popular opinion was wrong. There isn’t much money out there on the free agent market for Davis, but there is the possibility of the Warriors working out a sign and trade if they elect not to sign him to a new deal and keep him. Davis is just 29, so he still has a few years of good basketball left in him. He is always an injury concern, but when healthy he is one of the best point guards in the game. It’s going to be interesting to see where he ends up.

4. Gilbert Arenas ($15 M - $17 M)
PER: 18.3 (10th in PG)
Unlike Brand, I just don’t think Arenas is a franchise-player and, therefore, he doesn’t deserve a max contract. Too many teams (and players) believe that a franchise’s best player deserves a max contract, but that only goes for about 10-15 of the league’s top players. Arenas is dynamic and exciting, and he is a phenomenal scorer, but he is coming off a knee injury and didn’t look 100% when he tried to come back in the playoffs. The Wizards have stated that they intend to re-sign him, but they’d be wise to limit their offer to the $12 M to $13 M range. If he balks, there aren’t too many other options for him this summer. Where else is he going to get that kind of money? There’s a chance that Philly would bite, but the Sixers already have Andre Miller, who is getting on in years but is affordable and effective.

5. Antawn Jamison, F ($13 M - $15 M per year)
PER: 20.32 (8th in PF)
Jamison made more than $31 M over the last two years, so his asking price might be a little too high. It’s tough to get a guy who averaged better than 20/9 the last two seasons to take a pay cut, but Jamison is 31 and the Wizards (or any other potential suitors) would be wise not to invest too much, as his game is bound to decline by the end of his next contract. (7/1 update: The Wizards signed Jamison to a four-year, $50 million contract. It seems about a year too long, but they got him for $12.5 M per season, which isn’t bad for a player of his caliber.)

6. James Posey, F ($5 M - $7 M per year)
PER: 12.08 (50th in SF)
Given all the credit thrown his way during the Celtics’ title run, Posey’s stock really rose this year. He looks like a good candidate for the mid-level exception, and a team like the Lakers or Spurs (who both have problems at small forward) would be wise to give him a look. He’s 31, so he’ll likely go to the team that gives him the longest deal.

7. Beno Udrih, PG ($5 M - $7 M per year)
PER: 13.39 (32nd in PG)
Udrih played pretty well for the Kings, but the numbers say he’s still only a marginal starting point guard in this league. Some franchise will overspend and give him the mid-level deal he and his agent are looking for.

8. Mickael Pietrus, SF ($3 M - $5 M per year)
PER: 12.76 (44th in SF)
Pietrus is still a bit of an unknown since he didn’t get much run in Golden State and the Warriors’ offense is so much different than the league average. At 26, he is still considered to have upside.

9. James Jones, SF ($3 M - $5 M per year)
PER: 13.66 (46th in PF)
Jones is a career 40% long-range shooter, so he has quite a bit of value and might command a mid-level deal. Still, he is a one-dimensional player and doesn’t bring much else to the table.

10. Bonzi Wells, SF ($4 M - $6 M per year)
PER: 14.37 (35th in SF)
Wells has always been a good player when motivated. He’s a good low post scorer and a strong rebounder for a small forward. But he’s kind of a head case and it’s probably not wise to invest in a player with attitude issues. Everywhere he’s landed he seems to wear out his welcome pretty quickly.

RESTRICTED

1. Jose Calderon, PG ($7 M - $9 M per year)
PER: 20.51 (5th in PG)
Calderon is wildly productive, but his limited minutes this season keeps his asking price relatively low. The Raptors would be wise to lock him up to a long-term deal averaging about $8 million a season.

2. Josh Smith, F ($11 M - $13 M per year)
PER: 19.08 (11th in PF)
Smith is one of the restricted free agents on this list that actually has a chance to be swiped away by another team. Rumor has it that the Hawks aren’t willing to go over $11 M a season for Smith, and the Sixers might offer him a bigger deal than that. He’d be a good addition in Philly and at 22, it would be a wise investment.

3. Josh Childress, F ($5 M - $7 M per year)
PER: 17.84 (9th in SF)
I’ve always loved Childress’ game. He is one of the most underrated forwards out there and looks to be a great candidate for a mid-level deal, though the Hawks are likely to match that kind of offer.

4. Andre Iguodala, GF ($11 M - $14 M per year)
PER: 19.05 (6th in SF)
The Sixers need to be careful here. Iguodala can really stuff the stat sheet, but he probably can’t carry a franchise, so if Philly can lock him into a long-term contract that is at the bottom of his asking price, it would be a good deal for both parties.

5. Monta Ellis, G ($7 M - $9 M per year)
PER: 19.01 (7th in SG)
Ellis is a dynamic scorer but he has three things working against him: 1) he’s small for a shooting guard, 2) teams question his ability to play the point, and 3) teams believe his numbers are inflated because of the Warriors’ frenetic pace. Still, he’s one of the league’s rising stars, so he deserves a contract that is better than the mid-level.

6. Luol Deng, F ($10 M - $12 M per year)
PER: 17.07 (15th in SF)
Deng turned down a deal from the Bulls that averaged about $10 million per year, but after a rough season that saw his numbers dip a bit, his stock has followed suit. His camp will still be looking for a big contract, so it will be interesting to see if the Bulls can work out a deal.

7. Emeka Okafor ($10 M - $12 M per year)
PER: 17.46 (16th in PF)
Quality big men routinely garner more than $10 million per season, and I don’t see how Okafor is any different. It looks like he’ll eventually re-sign with the Bobcats, though he might become a free agent next summer.

8. Andris Biedrins ($8 M - $10 M per year)
PER: 19.18 (7th in C)
He shoots about 60% from the field and averages a double-double. Again, big men are coveted, so I expect he’ll eventually get a deal somewhere within the range of his asking price.

9. Ben Gordon ($9 M - $11 M per year)
PER: 16.52 (18th in PG)
Like Deng, Gordon turned down a deal averaging $10 million per year, and his numbers also dipped last season. He’s a nice complement to #1 pick Derrick Rose, so it is likely that the Bulls will find a way to retain him.

10. J.R. Smith ($5 M - $7 M per year)
PER: 18.15 (14th in SG)
Smith is an interesting free agent this season because he could probably be had for the mid-level and it’s not a sure thing that the Nuggets will match. He has a rep for being a bit of a malcontent, but a team like the Spurs might roll the dice and hope that the winning environment brings out the best in the talented yet temperamental player.

Others: Daniel Gibson, Delonte West, Sasha Vujacic, Ronny Turiaf and Nenad Krstic

John Paulsen @ 3:04 pm
Filed under: NBA and External NBA and NBA Draft and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip and External NBA Draft
Nets say “no thanks” to proposed Szczerbiak/Carter swap

Posted on Sunday 29 June 2008

The New York Post is reporting that the Cavs offered up Wally Szczerbiak (and the one year, $13 million remaining on his contract) for Vince Carter, who has three years and $49 remaining on his deal.

This deal would have been a straight salary dump, and if you like Carter’s game (I don’t), it would have been worse for the Nets than the Grizzlies’ donation of Pau Gasol earlier in the year. The deal never went anywhere, but one wonders if the Nets would have bit had the Cavs offered up Daniel Gibson in the deal. For their part, the Cavs were wise not to sweeten the pot. Vince Carter isn’t the missing piece in Cleveland.

John Paulsen @ 7:31 am
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and NBA Finals and External Sports and Rumors & Gossip
Love/Mayo swap punctuates a wild NBA Draft

Posted on Friday 27 June 2008

At least six first round picks are on the move, and now there’s word that Minnesota and Memphis have agreed to a deal that will send Kevin Love and Mike Miller to Minnesota for O.J. Mayo and Marko Jaric. There are four other players involved, but no one of consequence.

This looks like a crafty move by the historically non-crafty Kevin McHale. He really liked Love, but felt that he had to draft Mayo at #3 so that he could acquire another piece or two along with Love. In the deal, he not only got the power forward he wanted all along, but he also garnered the sharpshooting and affordable Miller, who should help space the court for Al Jefferson. Suddenly, the young Timberwolves can start a lineup that consists of Randy Foye, Rashad McCants, Miller, Love and Jefferson, and that’s not a bad start. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies can now boast a young (and cheap) perimeter core of Mayo, Mike Conley and Rudy Gay.

Most pundits are tasked to write a “winners & losers” column after the draft is complete, but the truth is there’s no reason to label any franchise one or the other when the truth about this draft won’t be revealed for at least another two to three years.

Looking at the first round, I am still bummed that the Bucks weren’t able to follow up their stellar (assuming his ankles hold up) acquisition of Richard Jefferson by coming out of the draft with Love, but Joe Alexander looks like a nice player, and there’s talk of him being able to play some power forward. Looking at his official measurements, his standing reach (8′10″) is the same as Love’s and just an inch shorter than Michael Beasley’s, and both of those players are considered to be power forwards. Alexander weighs just 220 lbs, but if he put on another 15 lbs of muscle, I think he’d be able to compete down low. Throw in his 38.5″ vertical and his 24 bench press reps (second best at the combine), and maybe a Jefferson/Alexander/Andrew Bogut frontline is a possibility. (For those of you writing Alexander off as a workout warrior, I submit the 23.0 points and 7.5 rebounds he averaged over the last 11 games of the season, which includes his 22/11 effort against Duke and his 18/10 against Xavier in the second and third rounds of the NCAA tournament.)

After all the talk of the Heat wanting out of the Beasley sweepstakes, they did the right thing and drafted him. It will be interesting to see how a Dwyane Wade/Shawn Marion/Beasley trio works. The Heat will have until the trade deadline to make a decision about Marion, assuming they don’t decide to trade him earlier.

Charlotte’s pick of D.J. Augustin was pretty surprising, especially considering Brook Lopez was still on the board. I bet Ray Felton isn’t feeling too great about this offseason. First, the team brings in Larry Brown, who is notoriously hard on his point guards. Then the Bobcats burn a lottery pick on a point guard when they really needed more help up front.

The Portland/Indiana trade is interesting. I was curious about why the Pacers would draft Jerryd Bayless when the had already acquired T.J. Ford, but it became clear when they moved him to Portland for Brandon Rush and Jarrett Jack. The Blazers get a point guard to play alongside Brandon Roy in a suddenly-stacked backcourt and the Pacers get Rush, who is a good defender and a great shooter. The Blazers are going to be scary for the next 5-8 years if they can keep this core together.

One other intriguing first round storyline was the drop of Darrell Arthur. The combination of the ongoing questions about his desire and the weird rumors about a kidney ailment really depressed his stock. But the Blazers finally drafted him (via the Hornets) and they got very good value with the pick.

Some big names slipped into the second round. Mario Chalmers was considered a first round pick by many, but he lasted until #34, where he was drafted by Minnesota and promptly traded to Miami. He’s a good shooter, so he should thrive off of the open looks he’ll get playing alongside Wade and Beasley. DeAndre Jordan was once considered a lottery pick, but really saw his stock tank in the last couple of weeks. The Clippers should be excited about getting him at #35 because very little is lost and there is so much to gain. (Chad Ford said that scouts would have Jordan as a top 5 pick in the 2009 draft if he were to spend another year in college.) In a head scratcher, the Bucks passed on Chris Douglas-Roberts and Bill Walker to draft Luc Richard Mbah a Moute. He’s a good defender and rebounder, but has shown almost no offensive game. The Nets ended up with Douglas-Roberts, who could turn into the Josh Howard-type steal of the draft. And the Celtics made a crafty move to trade for Walker.

John Paulsen @ 1:07 am
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and NBA Draft and External Sports and External NBA Draft
#15: The Suns select Robin Lopez

Posted on Thursday 26 June 2008

Coach Z’s scouting report: Less polished half of Lopez twins… size and grit will keep him around as long as he wants… development of an offensive game will determine level of success… every team needs a big guy to look good in airports…

Obviously, his stock jumped a lot in the last several days, but I think the Suns should have gone with Darrell Arthur, who is the better player. However, Lopez will give the Suns a defensive-minded center to take over once Shaq decides to dedicate all of his time to his burgeoning hip-hop career.

All right, that’s it for me until tonight, when I’ll post a recap of the last half of the first round and some thoughts on the second round.

John Paulsen @ 8:00 pm
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and NBA Draft and External Sports and External NBA Draft
#14: Golden State drafts Anthony Randolph

Posted on Thursday 26 June 2008

Coach Z’s scouting report: Being drafted solely on potential… very long and rangy… shot blocker in college, but lack of strength will limit him in the pros… to compare him to Lamar Odom or Tayshaun Prince is an insult to them… raw as a garden full of carrots…risky pick, as bulking up will be his biggest challenge…

Randolph is very raw. Given how Patrick O’Bryant failed to develop under Don Nelson, I’m not optimistic about Randolph’s chances to develop in the same situation.

I’m going to comment on one more pick and then I’ll be back later with a recap of the last half of the first round and some comments on the second round.

John Paulsen @ 7:54 pm
Filed under: NBA and Fantasy Basketball and External NBA and NBA Draft and External Sports and External NBA Draft