LSU vs. Mississippi State, 7:00PM ET
Zach Mettenberger joined the Heisman race with his stellar performance last Saturday versus Georgia. Unfortunately for him and the rest of the Tigers, the defense was downright brutal trying to defend Aaron Murray and the UGA offense. LSU has issues in its defensive backfield and it uncharacteristically didn’t generate any pressure with its front four last weekend. The Tigers are 0-3-1 against the spread in their last four conference games, while the Bulldogs are 5-1 against the number in their last six home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning road record. Take the value with the home dog.
FREE PICK: MISSISSIPPI STATE +7
Arizona State vs. Notre Dame, 7:30PM ET
While Stephon Tuitt and Louis Nix remain some of the best defenders in the country, Notre Dame’s defense hasn’t been nearly as impressive this season as it was a season ago. Meanwhile, junior quarterback Taylor Kelly has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of Arizona State’s first four games and junior transfer Jaelen Strong has racked up 433 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The Fighting Irish could have a difficult time keeping up on the fast track of Cowboys Stadium and their offense isn’t nearly consistent enough to keep pace. Brian Kelly’s squad is 0-5-1 against the spread in its last six games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games versus a team with a winning record. Lay the points with ASU.
FREE PICK: ARIZONA STATE -6
Lions vs. Packers, 1:00PM ET
The Lions are coming off a statement game against the Bears but they’ve always struggled in Green Bay. They’re 0-4 against the spread in their last four games versus the Packers and 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 trips to Lambeau Field. Detroit has also had trouble over the years away from Ford Field, and is 1-4 against the number in its lat five road games. Green Bay should be well rested coming off the bye and is well aware that it can’t fall further behind in the NFC North. Expect Aaron Rodgers’ best effort and for the Pack to win in a rout.
FREE PICK: PACKERS -7
Saints vs. Bears, 1:00PM ET
The Saints are firing on all cylinders offensively, while Rob Ryan has made an immediate impact for their defense. Despite injuries, Ryan is getting the most out of his players and is generate consistent pressure on a weekly basis. That said, the Saints are coming off a short week of practice and had to leave a day early for Chicago because of inclement weather. Not only has their routine been affected, but they’re also taking on a Bears team that will be plenty pissed off after their ugly performance a week ago in Detroit. The Bears are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, while the home team is 4-0-2 ATS in the last six meetings between these two teams.
FREE PICK: BEARS PICK’EM
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