I hate making NFL predictions. Mostly because the NFL is so hard to predict. It’s also hard reading most of them, as many writers sound so sure of themselves when anyone with a brain should know that there are so many factors that will affect the outcome. Every pick involves weighing probabilities and risks.
It’s particularly frustrating in the first couple of weeks in the season, when people who should know a lot about the NFL and football in generally get sucked in by the hype created by the media. Did you hear about Russell Wilson, and how all of a sudden everyone was picking this short, 3rd round pick to have one of the best rookie seasons?
By reading this week’s Bill Simmons article, I learned that he picked the Seahawks as his sleeper Super Bowl pick. I love reading Simmons, but this is another example of how emotion and hype are thrown into the mix whenever he provides “analysis.” He can really break down certain situations, but since he manages to write about practically everything, we often get excited observations that he pulls out of his ass.
Wilson might go on to have a good year for the Seahawks, but the fact remains that Pete Carroll has taken a huge gamble starting this rookie over Matt Flynn as I pointed when earlier in the preseason. The Seahawks do have a shot at the playoffs, but they pretty much gave away game 1 when Wilson completed only 18 of 34 passes for 153 yards and was sacked three times. The icing on the cake was watching Braylon “stone hands” Edwards drop the last pass. They’re just not good enough to give away games.
Now, I’m not going to completely write off Russell Wilson after one game, just like I won’t write off Brandon Weeden after his horrific debut performance. But at least Weeden has a big arm and is closer to 6′ 4″ as opposed to 5′ 11″. The odds are stacked against Wilson, and that’s just a fact. He may overcome them, but the odds for Seattle this season were probably a little better with Matt Flynn running the offense.
Check out all the lines for this weeks games here.