Which DTs were most productive in 2010?

Other positions: QB | RB | WR | TE | DT

When doing a postmortem on any fantasy football season, I like to look at how a particular player performed on a per game basis adjusted for his strength of schedule (SOS). DTs are no different, except that they all played the same number of games. SOS will have an impact, but the per game aspect of it won’t make much of a difference.

Keep in mind that I used the following scoring system:

DT/ST TD = 6 points
Safety = 2 points
INT = 1 point
Fumble = 1 point
Sack = 1 point

Defensive Points Allowed
Shutout = 10
2 – 6 = 8
7 – 10 = 6
11 – 14 = 4
15 – 19 = 2
20+ = 0

Here’s a look at how the 32 DTs stack up against each other when SOS bias is removed:

# Team PPG SOS Adj Adj PPG
1 PIT 10.3 -0.2 10.4
2 NE 10.1 0.1 10.0
3 GB 9.5 0.0 9.5
4 NYJ 8.9 -0.3 9.3
5 OAK 9.1 0.2 8.8
6 ARI 8.8 0.3 8.5
7 CHI 8.5 0.1 8.4
8 BAL 7.9 -0.2 8.1
9 SD 7.8 -0.2 8.0
10 KC 7.9 0.2 7.7
11 DET 7.7 0.0 7.7
12 ATL 8.1 0.5 7.6
13 NYG 7.8 0.4 7.4
14 DAL 7.5 0.1 7.4
15 TEN 7.2 -0.2 7.3
16 SEA 7.8 0.6 7.1
17 MIA 6.3 -0.7 7.0
18 PHI 6.8 0.0 6.8
19 SF 7.0 0.3 6.7
20 WAS 6.4 -0.2 6.6
21 NO 7.1 0.5 6.6
22 TB 7.0 0.4 6.6
23 BUF 5.9 -0.5 6.5
24 IND 6.1 -0.3 6.4
25 MIN 6.3 -0.1 6.4
26 CLE 5.9 -0.3 6.3
27 STL 6.7 0.6 6.1
28 CIN 5.2 -0.5 5.6
29 CAR 4.6 -0.3 4.8
30 DEN 3.9 -0.1 4.0
31 JAX 3.8 -0.2 4.0
32 HOU 3.8 -0.2 4.0

Essentially, the column on the far right is the baseline for the 2011 season. Once we know each team’s week-by-week schedule, we can adjust for 2011 projected SOS and come up with a tentative list from which to work with. Obviously, if a defense signs an impact free agent or hires a new defensive coordinator, that will have to be taken into account as well.

It’s interesting that there are four perennially solid DTs at the top of the list (PIT, NE, GB, NYJ), but would anyone be surprised if #5 Oakland or #6 Arizona took a big fall in 2011? After the aforementioned four DTs, I just see a large group of middling fantasy defenses that are all about the same.

So long after the Steelers, Patriots, Packers and Jets fly off the board during the draft, I’ll probably be looking to build a Defensive Team By Committee (DTBC) with a couple of these middling defenses whose schedules happen to combine favorably.

But that’s another post for another time.

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