Whatever happened to all the dominant Duke big men?
Let me throw out a few names: Danny Ferry, Christian Laettner, Cherokee Parks, Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer and Shelden Williams — what do they have in common? Yes, they all played for Duke, and they all averaged at least 17.7 points and 7.4 rebounds in their final years in Durham. On average, this group posted 19.6 points and 9.0 boards in those years. Ferry, Laettner, Brand and Williams were named First Team All-Americans, while Boozer made the Third Team. Parks could have been an All-American as well had Mike Krzyzewski not missed most of of his senior season due to back surgery and exhaustion. Williams was the last “dominant” Duke big man, and he graduated in 2005-06.
Since then, Duke has seen a string of highly-touted big men come through Cameron, including Shavlik Randolph (who played with Williams), Josh McRoberts, Brian Zoubek, Miles Plumlee, Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly. Randolph, McRoberts, Mason Plumlee and Kelly were all McDonald’s All-Americans coming out of high school. Other than maybe McRoberts (13.0 points and 7.9 rebounds), none of these guys have even approached the numbers and success of the aforementioned group.
What has happened to big man development in Durham?
One theory is that the Duke assistant coaches — Steve Wojciechowski, Chris Collins and Nate James — were all perimeter players in their heyday. You don’t need to be a former post player to coach big men but it certainly doesn’t hurt. Do they have the expertise to teach Miles Plumlee how to shoot a jump hook or master the up-and-under?
Another theory is that Coach K’s offense has become increasingly perimeter-oriented over the past few years. Rarely does Duke probe the middle with post feeds and ask their bigs to score with their back to the basket. Mason Plumlee did have a couple of jump hook opportunities against Virginia Tech on Saturday, but the post is not the focus of the Duke offense. For the last few years, the Blue Devils have become increasingly dependent on the three-point shot. All the action is out on the perimeter where Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler break down their defenders and either shoot the open jumper or take it to the rim.
Or it could be the prospects themselves. Right now, Kelly is a 6-11 three-point specialist and looks uncomfortable with his back to the basket. Both Plumlees are capable of banging down low, but neither guy is polished with his back to the basket. The same goes for Randolph, Zoubek and McRoberts before them. Maybe guys like Laettner and Brand were just better offensive players coming out of high school. Laettner was a face up shooter — he hit 56% from three-point range his senior year — but he was also murder in the mid-post and got to the line regularly.
The Blue Devils managed to win a National Championship last year with no viable post threat, but Zoubek brought enough defense and rebounding that Duke was able to get by. The team is certainly bigger up front than they have been in years, but they still don’t have a guy that they want to feed in the post. This deficiency is masked when they are hitting their threes, but when they’re laying bricks like they did on Saturday (4-for-20 from 3PT against the Hokies), they’re going to lose. In fact, in the three Duke losses, the Blue Devils have shot a combined 20-of-81 (25%) from long range. It sure helps to have a dependable option down low when those threes aren’t falling.
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Posted in: College Basketball
Tags: 2010-11 college basketball, Duke Blue Devils, Headlines, Mike Krzyzewski
That 1995 Duke team was going to be bad with or without K on the bench.
They were 9-3 before Coach K left the bench. They had Parks, Capel, Langdon, Wojo, Collins, Meek, Price:
http://www.dukeupdate.com/Seasons/19941995_duke_blue_devils.htm
They lost to UConn, Iowa and Clemson before he quit. Beat Michigan, Illinois, Georgia Tech. I bet they would have been a 20-win team.
Besides, is that all you got out of this post? Good grief.
3 of 5 mentioned are actually @ Duke right now. None are Seniors.
Like I’ve been saying for years..if Duke wants to recruit a DOMINANT big man; they’ll need a “former big” as an assistant. Think Alaa Abdelnaby.. The last “actual” productive big man. The rest have been forwards that can run the floor and finish…(except Zoubek)
There are other so-so bigs that have come through but weren’t highly touted. Like Lance Thomas. We’re only talking about five seasons since Williams graduated. But still, a dearth of production from down low.
Miles is a junior and Mason and Kelly are sophomores; they’re all behind Ferry, Laettner, Brand etc. at this point in their careers.
This may be simplistic, but if you take Duke’s current big men as a combo rather than individualy, they are not that bad. First remember that Laettner, Ferry, Brand, etc. all played around 35 minutes per game, so by combining the current bigs, you get about 40 minutes of play and the following
Mason P/Kelly 13.9 pts, 12.7 rebs
Mason P/Miles P 11.7 pts 13.2 rebs
I think most coaches would take that from a big.
Good thought, but I’m not sure you can do that in this case, since Duke is usually playing two bigs (Plumlee/Plumlee, Plumlee/Kelly) together. The aforementioned dominant bigs were posting those numbers on their own AND there was another forward playing alongside them.
To carry Blue666′s point over to two positions as JP suggests, when you sum Kelly and the 2 Plums, you get 61.6 minutes, 18.3 points and 17.1 boards.
Pro-rate that to 80 MPG for C/PF and each averages 12 PPG and 11 Rebounds for two double double guys equivalent.
That’s some fuzzy math. A “double-double guy’ gets his double-double in the minutes he gets, not when it’s prorated to 40 per game. Besides, the aforementioned group would get 18 points per game in 32 minutes from one guy, not from a three-headed monster in 62 minutes.
The point of this piece is that Duke hasn’t developed dominant big men like they have in the past, not that they aren’t getting mediocre production from the bigs that they do have.
Yea that’s more or less what I took from the post. Because the truth of the matter is that you could just as well ask “Whatever happened to all the dominant big men” in college ball as a whole. The game generally has become more and more centered around guard play, and Duke hasn’t been an exception to that trend.
I mean I guess I could bring up that it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to bring on Wojo and give him the specific task of coaching big men, but I’d imagine you’ve heard that one from a UNC fan or two in the past few years.
On the other question though, if that team had a chance at competing for a title then K would have been on the bench. The back problems weren’t new. I won’t sit here and argue that there isn’t a certain amount of sense that goes into having the surgery during the down year of 1995 rather than during Grant Hill’s senior season the year before. It just still amazes me that Duke fans pretend that isn’t what happened.
So is your premise that there aren’t very many good big men or that the big men aren’t developing because the game is more centered around guard play? Randolph, McRoberts, Mason Plumlee and Kelly are examples of McDonald’s All-Americans that have come through Duke and haven’t developed like the guys before them did. I don’t know what that has to do with guard play, unless you’re saying that Coach K has gone guard-oriented despite having talented bigs. That’s a choice, so he (or the program) is not some victim of circumstance.
Regarding the ‘down’ year of 1995, they were 9-3 when he left the bench. Maybe they weren’t going to make the Final Four, but they had some good college players on that team.
I guess what I’m saying is that whatever talent comes through the college game at the post positions rarely stays around for more than a season or two, since NBA teams are always desperate to acquire more size even if a player is a bit of a project.
To keep it with the Duke example, that’s why guys like Nolan Smith end up becoming player of the year candidates as seniors and why guys like Josh McRoberts get drafted after a couple of fairly middle of the road years. Aside from a few truly spectacular guard prospects every year, they tend to stick around for a while and develop.
Think about it, when was the last truly dominant big man to stay in college for more than a year or two? Tim Duncan back in the mid 90′s? I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Elton Brand ended up being the first Duke player to ever leave early under Coach K.
Elton Brand left when he was a sophomore and Carlos Boozer left when he was a junior and they were miles ahead of the Plumlees, Kelly and McRoberts at the same point in their careers. Ferry and Laettner averaged 14 and 16 ppg respectively as sophomores. Shelden Williams averaged 12.6 in his second year. Those players took a big leap from their freshman to sophomore years and we’re not seeing that anymore from bigs at Duke. McRoberts averaged 13+ as a sophomore but didn’t develop like many of us thought he would. (By the way, Brand was joined by William Avery and Corey Maggette as the first players to leave Duke early and they were perimeter players.)
I don’t think any dominant player stays in college for four years, but marginal big men are more likely to leave early since there are so many guard and wing prospects out there.