Strength of Schedule (SOS): Week 13
What am I looking at?
Below you’ll see a table for each position with a list of team names on the left. If a square is pink, it means that the matchup is tough. If it’s green, it means it’s a favorable matchup. On the far right, the column “R16″ shows the average SOS for the remaining weeks.
It’s important to note that this is NOT straight fantasy points allowed. I removed the bias of schedule by looking at the opponents of each defense and how they fared in their other games. For example, if a particular defense faced a series of great QBs, then that is taken into account in these tables.
How do I use these tables?
Generally speaking, I use strength of schedule as a tiebraker between two similarly ranked players. Let’s say I’m trying to decide between starting BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Ronnie Brown. All else being equal, these two players are very close in my mind. But if BGE has a great matchup and Brown has a bad matchup, the choice is clear. In fact, if BGE just has a mediocre matchup while Brown has a bad matchup, I’d probably go with the Law Firm.
Be careful not to read too much into these tables. You aren’t going to bench Chris Johnson in a bad matchup unless you somehow have Arian Foster waiting in the wings.
Note: I apologize for the size of the text, but there really is no other way for me to present this data, at least not at this point.
Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @TheScoresReport. You can also follow TSR editor Gerardo Orlando @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom, and you can follow TSR editor Anthony Stalter @AnthonyStalter.
Improve your game today!
You've got to brush up on your game to get the girl! Find your hookups with this online dating guide.
Hey John, thanks for this.
Actually, I’ve toyed with doing something similar. In past trials, I’ve taken it to an extreme. I’ll find the average number of receiving fantasy points allowed for running backs, or the average number of rushing fantasy points allowed for quarterbacks, or whatever. In some cases, it’s helped me justify rolling out Matt Forte or David Garrard when I have conventionally better options available.
One thing I’ve noticed is that some teams are relatively more susceptible to giving out receiving fantasy points against tight ends than wide receivers, or vice versa. This screwed me up when, at first, I aggregated receiving fantasy points into one, regardless of the position.
My method of handicapping for opponent strength takes into account that opponent’s average and standard deviation (again, in fantasy points). Instead of calculating a pure percentage points above average, I’ll use the number of standard deviations above average. That way, if I have a team that very consistently allows x number of fantasy points, I’ll reward a player that exceeds x proportional to how consistent the team is. Likewise, if I have a team that’s very up and down, then I do not reward a player as much for exceeding or getting fewer than that team’s average.
But more often than not, I’m too lazy to do all that work, so I just refer to your weekly rankings and others at Fantasy Pros. (By the way, I went against everyone’s advice and played Randy Moss against Washington the other week, benching Mike Williams, and I paid dearly for it. I guess some people never learn.)