UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez takes place Saturday night from the Honda Center in Anaheim, Calif. featuring a monumental main event for the UFC Heavyweight Championship. Here is my take on the card and who will win the main card bouts.
UFC Heavyweight Championship – Brock Lesnar (5-1) vs. Cain Velasquez (8-0): This is the biggest heavyweight bout the UFC could put together right now and Velasquez has a great chance to win the belt. The key will be for him to be able to stop the takedown attempts and keep the fight standing, where he has better striking and faster hands. Lesnar showed that he can be hurt in his last fight against Shane Carwin, but I think Velasquez has the endurance to see the victory through.
UFC Welterweight Bout – Jake Shields (25-4-1) vs. Martin Kampmann (17-3): Shields is making his UFC debut and many are penciling him in as the next to challenge Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight title, but I actually like Kampmann in an upset here as he has an all-around and aggressive style that can give Shields problems. Kampmann has only lost to strikers in his career, and Shields is far from an elite striker. I like Kampmann to win by decision in this one.
UFC Welterweight Bout – Diego Sanchez (23-4) vs. Paulo Thiago (13-2): Thiago has beaten some solid contenders in the welterweight division, but he has struggled with superior grapplers, losing to Jon Fitch and Kampmann. Sanchez got dominated in his last two fights and is desperate for a win, and I think he will come out motivated and looking to control the fight from the start with his pacing and wrestling. I like Sanchez to squeak out a decision against Thiago.
UFC Light Heavyweight Bout – Tito Ortiz (16-7-1) vs. Matt Hamill (10-2): Ortiz hasn’t won a fight since 2006 and while Hamill is lacking in some key areas, I think he has a better all-around game than Ortiz, who is pretty one dimensional with wrestling as his strength. Look for Hamill to move around and work kicks before scoring some late takedowns to get a decision win over Ortiz.
UFC Heavyweight Bout – Brendan Schaub (7-1) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (11-5): Schaub has a lot of promise and is an up-and-comer while Gonzaga is still holding on to a little bit of relevance, but has lost four of his last seven fights, with all of the losses coming by TKO. Schaub has won his last two fights by quick KO, so this fight should have plenty of fireworks. Look for Schaub to get the win as he has the quicker hands and is the better technical striker.
Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @TheScoresReport. You can also follow TSR editor Gerardo Orlando @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom, and you can follow TSR editor Anthony Stalter @AnthonyStalter.
Improve your game today!
You've got to brush up on your game to get the girl! Find your hookups with this online dating guide.
Close to exactly the opposite of how I see the night going, with the exception of Hamill-Ortiz.
I think Lesnar will be too big for Velasquez, and Kampmann won’t have the wrestling skills necessary to take on Shields. Beyond that, I have no faith in Sanchez right now and generally make it a point to expect TUF guys like Schaub to flounder against vets such as Gonzaga unless they’ve proven they can do otherwise.
Lesnar, too much, too big, too strong
Shield belongs at 185 i think, but he wins at 170
Diego is done, he’ll lose
Ortiz has solid jiu jitsu and a great chin.
He is however, old, broken, and weathered.
I think he wins but not exciting.
So yeah, pretty good picks on your part. Damn Velasquez looked good tonight.
I know I have been bad with my picks in the past, but I really felt good about Cain and Kampmann. I still think Kampmann won that fight and how anyone scored it 30-27 Shields is beyond me.
Lesnar’s mystique is gone thanks to Carwin and now Cain. All you need to do is stop his takedowns and have good striking and he’s toast. Oh, and good cardio. I really don’t know that Brock will ever be champion again. Not unless he really makes big strides in his striking and doesn’t cower when he gets punched.
I had it 29-28 Shields personally, with Kampmann winning the third round. The 2nd was a tough one to score though, since Kampmann did more damage with a couple of knees but Shields had dominant position for the majority of the round.
I don’t know that I’d count Lesnar out just yet, though I certainly wouldn’t bet on him in a rematch with Velasquez. He’s still a pretty inexperienced guy without a strong background in striking. We have seen people like that improve their standup with some work. Seems like there are more examples of that than of standup only guys dramatically improving their wrestling.
How about Diego by the way? The announcing teams at these things always throw around the superlatives, but that may have been the best I’ve ever seen him look as well.
I don’t know that that was the best I have seen Diego look, because I think he lost the first round, but he clearly took Thiago’s heart away in the second and completely ran a pace that Thiago couldn’t keep up with. I thought it was a great showing for him for sure.
I don’t know how any heavyweight would be afraid of Lesnar now as it is pretty clear he can’t handle getting punched at all. Against Carwin he ran around and then he tripped all over himself against Cain after getting hit. He looked like anything but what he is trying to be. He likes to walk around like a big bully and an Alpha Male, but now he looks silly.
Just to play devil’s advocate a bit, it isn’t as if there’s a string of other UFC heavyweights that can lay claim to a stoppage over Nogueira. Cain is arguably the best striker in the division.
I think it is fair to say he is probably the most technical striker. He has the power and also throws smart, technically correct strikes. Carwin has to have as much, if not more, power as Cain, but his technique isn’t as crisp.
If you really break down the division, Pat Barry has to be one of the best “strikers” with his kicks, but he is so bad at grappling and submissions, it gets overshadowed.