The curse of the Coach of the Year award
DIME MAGAZINE noticed something very odd with the last few NBA COY winners…
2005–06: Avery Johnson, Dallas Mavericks, 60–22 (Fired April 30, 2008)
2006–07: Sam Mitchell, Toronto Raptors, 47–35 (Fired December 3, 2008)
2007–08: Byron Scott, New Orleans Hornets, 56–26 (Fired November 12, 2009)
2008–09: Mike Brown, Cleveland Cavaliers, 66–16 (Fired May 24, 2010)
2009–10: Scott Brooks, Oklahoma City Thunder, 50–32 (???)
They were all fired within two years. The post goes on to speculate that the reason behind this trend is heightened expectations and I tend to agree. I’d go a step further, however. The award often goes to a coach who “got the most out of his team” (i.e. the team played “over their heads”). When this kind of outlier occurs, it’s far more likely that the team will return to the mean instead of continuing to develop into an NBA champion.
In other words, all it takes is one bad/mediocre season and the guy is a bum again. And with 30 teams vying for a championship, a bad/mediocre season is far more likely than a great one.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
The Coach of the Year “curse” goes all the way back to 1987. Scott Brooks probably won’t even make it to the 2010-2011 season.
http://www.chrisnungesser.com/proclamation/2010/05/25/scott-brooks-
will-be-fired-in-oklahoma-city/
I agree with you. Coach of the Year seems to be awarded to the coach who had very low expectations and performed admirably rather than the best coach in the league. The “curse” only exists for this reason. We would see fewer coaches fired if the award actually went to the best coach.
Consider Phil Jackson. He’s been an NBA head coach since the 1989-1990 season (he didn’t coach during the 1998-1999 season). His teams have made the playoffs every year. He’s won a record 10 NBA titles; at one point winning nine titles in 12 years. And he has only one Coach of the Year Award.
Yeah, Phil has had the benefit of coaching Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal and Pau Gasol. His teams are expected to win.
Consider Jerry Sloan. What a travesty that he’s never won COY.