Who will win Rookie of the Year?
It’s that time of year again. Let’s try to figure out who will win this year’s Rookie of the Year…
Brandon Jennings jumped out in the ROY race with a 22-4-6 average in October and November, while shooting 43% from the field and 50% from three-point land. This included an epic 55-point outing against the Golden State Warriors in which Jennings hit 21 of 34 shots, including 7-for-8 from behind the arc. Since then, he is averaging 14-3-6 and is shooting just 35% from the field and 36% from 3PT. He has struggled with scoring from inside the arc, but he leads all rookies in assists and has a pretty nice assist-to-turnover ratio — 2.41, but he has posted a 2.72 ratio since the start of December. Maybe most importantly, the Bucks are 41-32 and are in the #5 spot in the East.
Tyreke Evans overtook Jennings with a 22-5-5 December and hasn’t looked back. On the season, he is averaging 20-5-6, and is shooting 46% from the field. He’s on the verge of joining LeBron James, Michael Jordan and Oscar Robertson as the only players to average 20-5-5 in their rookie seasons. However, the Kings have the 6th-worst record in the league and have been out of the playoff hunt for some time. This is both good and bad for Evans’ stats. On one hand, the Kings are so bad that he has to be the clear focal point of the offense — unlike Jennings, he doesn’t have to get the ball to Andrew Bogut or John Salmons — but the fact that the Kings are so bad means that defenses can focus on stopping him.
And then there’s Stephen Curry, whom NBA.com’s Drew Packham lists first in his rookie rankings. Since the start of December, he has averaged 18-5-6, while shooting 47% from the field and 44% from long range. And he keeps getting better. In February and March, he averaged 21-5-7. But at 21-52, the Warriors are even worse than the Kings. In fact, Golden State is tied for second third in fewest wins this season.
One thing that pure averages don’t account for is a team’s pace (i.e. the average # of possessions a team has during the course of a game). Is it fair to compare Jennings’ numbers to Curry’s when the Bucks are #18 in overall pace and the Warriors are #1? Using the league average of 95.15 possessions, here is a look at the pace-adjusted numbers for each player, along with John Hollinger’s PER:
All due respect to Mr. Packham, I think this is a two-man race between Evans and Jennings. Evans’ numbers are better than Curry’s and his team is a little better, so if we’re going to go with a good player on a bad team, it should be Evans.
As for Jennings, his case depends how much importance we place on a team’s record and how responsible the player is for that record. It’s funny — a good record is crucial in winning the league MVP, but for ROY, it doesn’t seem to matter all that much. Why is that?
In the end, I think Evans will win Rookie of the Year. Given the history of the award, if a player clearly has the superior numbers, winning just doesn’t matter. That’s the case here.
Photo from fOTOGLIF
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I can’t help but think the Bucks would be doing even better if they’d taken Curry over Jennings.
That would have been tough to do considering that Curry went #7 and the Bucks got Jennings at #10.
I’d say evans, because of his numbers, but Jennings has had one hell of a season. A few teams must be thinking thinking what if.
That was actually just a roundabout way of saying that Curry is better than Jennings and that the Bucks’ success this season has probably had as much to do with Bogut’s tremendous play, as having a talented rookie point guard.
The team success metric fails to separate individual contributions, so it’s just as flawed as looking at box scores, but in the opposite way. So when you say, “Jennings has to be in the conversation because his team is doing well,” you’re just begging the question. When someone says that Curry or Evans is the better rookie, they’re saying–by logical extension–that the Bucks would fair even better with Curry or Evans on their team.
Regardless of whether that’s the case, I’m just making the point that the Bucks’ success doesn’t really mean shit.
I get it. You made a mistake and now you have some convoluted reasoning why you said what you said.
True Shooting Percent is a better stat for determining overall scoring efficiency than FG%.
By TS%, Jennings is an absymal scorer, Reke is slightly below average efficiency, and Curry is an above average efficiency scorer.
The Warriors also have the third worst record, not second, and they have a better margin than the Kings. The Warriors have a much worse record than predicted.
You want to account for pace, but you don’t acknowledge the fact that Reke has only played with another scorer for a couple months, whereas Curry has had to deal with deferring to Monta Ellis who is tied for most FGA and has one of the highest USG% in the league.
That being said, I think Reke will get it. Curry definitely deserves it a lot more than Jennings, though. He just beat Evans out for another rookie of the month award.
So this is all about scoring efficiency now?
Ellis’ presence boosts Curry’s assist numbers, so the knife cuts both ways.
I feel as tho Jennings had a good beginning but Reke has definitely stepped up since and at the 3 yr mark Curry is goin to be #2 out the 3
Anyone who thinks Curry’s assists numbers are higher because of Monta has never watched a Warriors game.
I have seen Curry assist Ellis plenty of times.
I think it should go to Jennings. Winning needs to count for something and his numbers are impressive as well. Bogut has played well sure, but he has been around how long now and he has never been a factor before, now along come Jennings a true point guard and the Bucks are back in the playoffs with a team people didnt think would even win 25 games and Bogut is having a great season. I dont think it is a stretch to say that Jennings helped in a mjor way to turn the Bucks into playoff team and a team no one wants to play against. Just look what he did in game 1 of the playoffs.
Jennings is all about winning and he does what he needs to do to help his team win.
People say would the Bucks be better with Evans or Curry and I dont think they really would. We have yet to see how those two play on teams that do not just allow you to run and gun and shoot whenever you want. There teams have no real structure and they have nothing to play for.
If anyone has watched Jennings play you would know that he would be unstoppable in a system like GS, he would average over 20ppg easily.
He currently plays for Scott Skiles who is a tough coach and doesn’t allow his players to go of an do whatever they want and he has still been able to put up very respectable numbers.
Evans and Curry have had great season but the ROY should go to Brandon Jennings because in this league it is all about winning and Jennings has got the stats, the performances and the winning record to be names 2010 NBA Rookie of The Year.