Bill Simmons’ Super Bowl XLIV pick
Like most of us, Bill Simmons fondly remembers when he’s right and quickly forgets when he’s wrong. For posterity, here is his Super Bowl XLIV pick:
“For me, it comes down to this: I can’t pick against Manning in a big game. It’s just a bad idea. Hence, I like a relatively close game with Indy prevailing 31-23 (covering the 4½-point spread but hitting the under of 57½). Then we can spend the subsequent week wondering whether Indy could have gone 19-0. That will be a barrel of laughs.”
If you were deciding between Simmons and Stalter, let’s hope you went with the latter. Stalter picked the Saints outright.
Uh, yeah, but both guys had a 50/50 chance of getting it.
By the way, I don’t know how many times I’ve heard Simmons say, “I will now light myself on fire,” so he does eat his crow when it’s served to hi
You think sports betting is pure chance?
Besides, the money line on the Saints was +170 (or +180) so picking the Saints a winner was not a 50/50 proposition.
I’m not trying to get into a conversation about sports betting. All I’m saying is, you had a 50/50 chance of getting this thing right. That’s all.
In this case, JP isn’t talking about sports betting. He’s talking about odds.
The Colts were given -180 odds to win and the Saints +170. That’s not 50/50, even though you’re trying to make it such by saying that one team was going to win and one team was going to lose. You’re throwing out the odds of the game to make your point.
Ok, but I’m not talking about sports betting or odds.
The fact of the matter is, you literally had a 50/50 chance, by the laws of math (not what some Vegas bookies arbitrarily decide).
I know there was at least one game this season (I’m thinking Saints/Giants) when I picked the winning team and you picked the losing team. Does that mean it’s time for you and Simmons to both blow me? No. Sports “picking” and betting is totally unscientific and random anyway. Even the best mathematical stat-based algorithms don’t really exceed 70-75% success.
Anyway, Stalter, I thought your blog posts were very good throughout this Superbowl. Keep it up.
And, John, keep up the WHINING as always.
Dr. E,
I think JP was just giving his co-writer some props and taking a harmless jab at Simmons at the same time. And he wasn’t whining – I agree with him about the odds and probability of the game not being 50/50. Flipping a coin is 50/50 – picking the winner of a sporting event isn’t 50/50.
But I digress – who cares at this point.
And I actually didn’t pick the Giants to beat the Saints, but I did think they would give them a game in New Orleans. You didn’t and shredded me for sensationalizing the Saints’ win. You were right about the Giants not being as good as advertised though.
Again – whatever. Let’s move on.
Thanks for the compliment about the SB coverage.
Yeah, y’know, I’m just kidding about JP whining. But we basically have this tradition where I ultimately end up calling him a whiner. So why break it here?