Thanks to Kyle Orton’s terrific Monday night performance against Pittsburgh and Green Bay’s outstanding effort in Tampa, I took one on the chin last week to go 2-3. Law of averages says I get things right this week, right? Right?!

Here are my top four plays for Sunday.

Bengals (6-2) at Steelers (6-2), 1:00PM ET
I don’t see the Bengals sweeping the Steelers this season, but Cincinnati isn’t getting enough respect. Their defense is legit and they have the secondary to matchup with a team like the Steelers that likes to put the ball in the air. Carson Palmer, Cedric Benson and Chad Ochocinco have played well this season and should be able to keep the Bengals in the game. For as good as the Steelers are and as much as they’ll get up for a division rival like the Bengals who have already beaten them once this season, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week after earning an emotional win in Denver. In the end, I think the Steelers defense won’t wilt like they did in the fourth quarter of the first contest, but this game is going to be closer than the odds would indicate.
Odds: Steelers –7.
Prediction: Steelers 20, Bengals 16.

Saints (8-0) at Rams (1-7), 1:00PM ET
The Saints haven’t covered in two weeks as double-digit favorites and while some bettors might think now is the perfect time to back a Rams team coming off a bye and getting 13.5 points at home, I would caution them. The Falcons and Panthers played the Saints tough because they’re familiar with New Orleans and divisional games are always closer than people think. It’s about time Drew Brees touches another opponent up for three or four scores and this is the perfect weekend to do going against a suspect St. Louis secondary. Actually, the Rams defense isn’t as bad as many think and they might be able to hang with New Orleans in the first half. But the Rams’ offense is putrid and the Saints’ defense has preyed on their opponents’ mistakes all season. I fully expect Sean Payton’s team to romp and I’ll gladly eat the chalk.
Odds: Saints –13.5.
Prediction: Saints 37, Rams 10.

Falcons (5-3) at Panthers (3-5), 1:00PM ET
This has “trap” written all over it. The Falcons are clearly the better team, yet find themselves as only 1.5-point favorites entering this game. Even though the Falcons got off the schnide last week by beating a bad Washington team, Matt Ryan hasn’t played particular well in over a month and Carolina has one of the better defensive backfields in the league. If the Panthers can contain Michael Turner (which could be tough given that linebacker Thomas Davis was lost after he suffered a season-ending injury last week), then they’ll have a shot to win outright. Atlanta’s run defense has been shaky this year and as long as DeAngelo Williams plays (he’ll be a game time decision), he and Jonathan Stewart should control this game on the ground. If Williams is out, then throw my pick out because I just don’t think the Panthers have enough to beat a Falcons team that has the inside track of earning a Wild Card spot in the NFC.
Odds: Falcons –1.5.
Prediction: Panthers (with Williams) 24, Falcons 20…Falcons 27, Panthers 17 (without Williams).

Cowboys (6-2) at Packers (4-4), 4:15PM ET
I’ll cut to the chase: The Packers have zero chance of winning this game if they can’t figure out how to protect quarterback Aaron Rodgers. And based on how the offensive line has looked so far, I doubt they’ll figure things out before Dallas brings its highly effective pass rush to Lambeau Field on Sunday. The Cowboys should control this game in the trenches and wear down Green Bay on both sides of the ball. I fully expect the Packers to give a better defensive effort than they did last week in Tampa, but DeMarcus Ware should feast on Rodgers, who rarely has time to blink in the pocket, nevertheless complete a pass. Assuming Wade Phillips’ bunch doesn’t play down to their competition this weekend, then the ‘Boys should earn another road win. (That said, beware that the Cowboys just won a huge game in Philadelphia last week, so this might be a letdown game for them.)
Odds: Cowboys –3.
Prediction: Cowboys 23, Packers 17.

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