Industry Insiders Fantasy League: Round 2
To start with Round 1 (and see the scoring system and roster requirements), click here.
With Chris Johnson on board, I felt I was off to a pretty good start. I had the fifth pick in the second round and I knew that Reggie Wayne, Michael Turner, Steve Smith, Brian Westbrook or Frank Gore would fall to me. Given the starting requirements (2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex), I preferred going with a WR in round two so that I had more flexibility in the upcoming rounds.
Round 2: 13) Reggie Wayne, 14) Michael Turner, 15) Frank Gore, 16) Brian Westbrook
So that left Steve Smith for me. His bruised shoulder is a minor concern, but he’s already back on the field and when he plays, there are only a few wideouts that are more productive than Steve Smith. Last season, he was suspended for the first two games and still finished as WR10. He had the fourth-best average (18.6 fp) in the league behind Anquan Boldin (22.1), Andre Johnson (20.2) and Larry Fitzgerald (19.6). Over the last four years, he has averaged 18.0 fppg. He’s barely on the wrong side of 30, so I wouldn’t expect that he would show any signs of slowing down for another 3-4 years.
I briefly considered Boldin, Roddy White and Clinton Portis, but didn’t feel as good about any of them as I did about Steve Smith. (If you’re wondering, with a total of six starting RBs and WRs, QBs are slightly devalued in this league.) Taking a WR in the second round should allow me to pounce on value at any position in the next few rounds. If I had gone with another RB, I wouldn’t be able to go RB/RB in Round 3 and Round 4 if the value was there.
Round 2, Pick 5: Steve Smith, WR
The rest of Round 2 went like this: 18) Marion Barber, 19) Anquan Boldin, 20) Greg Jennings, 21) Roddy White, 22) Clinton Portis, 23) Brandon Jacobs, 24) Marques Colston
No consideration to Jennings, huh? I’ve done one draft and a couple of mocks, and I still don’t have a strong handle on whether I like Jennings or Smith more.
I like Jennings, but I put him with Roddy White, Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin and Dwayne Bowe. Smith averages 18+ points per game while Jennings is a 16-17 ppg guy, so with the shoulder looking good for Week 1, I put Smith in a higher tier with Calvin, Wayne and Moss.
The reason I go back and forth is because Jennings has the superior quarterback. Smith’s talent is elite but his past and present injuries coupled with Delhomme’s inconsistency make me nervous. I guess, to me, it boils down to:
Smith’s superior skills vs. Jennings’ more stable situation
In that sense, Smith is the upside play and Jennings the safer pick.
Jennings is definitely in the better offense with the better QB, but over the past four seasons Smith has been targeted 9.6 times per game versus Jennings’ 7.7 (over the past three seasons). Last season, Jennings was targeted 8.8 times per game, so the margin is closing, but Smith typically has more opportunity on a week-to-week basis.
Jennings has a good shot of outscoring Smith this season, but I think Smith has the better shot posting the better season.