Another reason to be down on Michael Turner this season…
I’ve already mentioned the “Curse of 370,” but Michael Turner is facing yet another challenge this season — a much tougher schedule.
Here’s a look at Turner’s performance last year against good, mediocre and bad rush defenses:
– In three games against top 10 rush defenses (Chicago, Philly and Minnesota), Turner averaged 20.3 carries for 60.7 yards and 0.3 TD, which translates to 8.1 fantasy points.
– In seven games against teams ranked #11-#20 in rush defense (New Orleans x 2, Carolina x 2, Tampa Bay x 2, and San Diego), Turner averaged 23.4 carries for 92.0 yards and 1.0 TD, which equals 15.2 fantasy points.
– In six games agains teams ranked #21 to #32 in rush defense (Denver, St. Louis, Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay and Oakland), Turner averaged 25.2 carries for 145.5 yards and 1.5 TD, which is 23.5 fantasy points.
In short, Turner killed poor rush defenses, did pretty well against mediocre defenses and struggled against good ones. That makes sense, right?
Heading into the 2009 season, Turner’s schedule is shaping up to be tougher. He has six matchups with teams that finished in the top 10 last year, nine matchups with teams that finished #11-#20, and just one game against a team that finished #22-#32 (#22 Buffalo). On average, he’s going from a schedule that has an average rank of 19.3 against the rush to one that has an average rank of 13.6. Not good.
So assuming that Turner has the same averages against each of the three groups, and last year’s finish is a reasonable expectation for how these defenses will fair (a big assumption, I know), then Turner would project to 358 carries for 1338 yards and 13 TD. Those are still good numbers, but a far cry from the 1699 yards and 17 TD he posted last year.
Assuming he continues to be a non-factor in the Atlanta passing game (and with the addition of Tony Gonzalez, this is not a big assumption), and posts another six catches for 41 yards, then these rushing and receiving totals translate to 221 fantasy points (in a high performance PPR league). That would have made him RB15 last year.
I still like Turner — hell, I have him in a keeper league, so I’m rooting for the guy — but I just don’t think he’s first round material this season in PPR leagues.
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Good observations.
It’s interesting see that Turner is going in the top 5 of some leagues despite “The 370 Curse) and, as you highlighted, a tough schedule.
From a non-fantasy perspective, I think the Falcons need to stick to their identity of a running team, but develop the passing game more now that Ryan is heading into his second year. They have to become a team that can beat you through the air if Turner is bottled up, or at least be a team that can open the running game open via the passing game.
And for Cribbs’ sake – find a way to get the ball in Norwood’s hands more.
Turner the burner hits the hole to soft and
doesnt punish up front like top 5 backs do.
He is a great talent and fresh legs considering.
Thats my only knock on him.
Top 5-6 defenses kill him and make him look average
John — that seems odd considering he led the league in yards after contact and broken tackles last season. I think he hits the hole plenty hard.
Good information but I think downgrading an elite back based on the statistical analysis of strength of schedule is a bit extreme. Your analysis doesn’t take into account the game situations, time of possession, score, running on predictable downs, passing game performance, etc. Considering defenses probably focused on Turner to make the rookie QB beat them last season, the stats he put up were quite amazing. Ryan will be better with a year under his belt and defenses will have to focus more on the passing game, which should allow Turner to have an even better season.
Bottom line in fantasy football is if a guy is good, he’s good. It’s about taking the best players, not the guys with the easier schedules.
I guess time will tell whether or not the “Curse of 370” or a tougher schedule will have an effect on Turner.
Maybe this is just my Falcon love talking, but I would agree with JP in that Turner hits the hole hard damn near every carry.
I don’t think he tip-toes, if that’s what you’re saying, John. He’s not a big back like TJ Duckett, who doesn’t hit the hole hard every time.
I’d be just as worried about Adrian Peterson’s 363. If Turner’s stats go down, we won’t know if it’s wear and tear or tougher schedule.
Yeah, but there’s no “Curse of 363” — “Curse of 370” sounds waaaaay cooler.
If it’s wear and tear, I’m expecting to hear about some injuries or maybe he misses a game here or there. If his stats drop but he plays a full season, I think we can point to the schedule.
He just seems to glide through the whole like a 210lb back not head down run over hitting.
All I am saying is he played 6 bad D’s and 7 lower than average D’s and did good and amazing.
But he didnt seem to ever truly bang through things at the start.
He may bounce off people and break tackles the most but look at when and who. The lions 220yrds 2td’s thats great stats, but 0-16 isnt that impressive you know.
Man I didnt say he was Cedric Benson, just he runs with a style less punishing then the 235-240 he carries USUALLY does, thats 😉
That’s fair. Turner’s yac and broken tackles numbers are probably a little inflated given his competition, but I’d think he’d still be in the top 5 in both categories with a tougher schedule. It will be interesting to see where he finishes the season.
John – The “glide” statement is fair for Turner. He’s definitely not a bruiser by any means, although I still think he hits the hole well. (Maybe not hard, but he doesn’t dance.)
His fullback said that he was the most patient runner he’s ever blocked for, so that may have something to do with the notion that he’s not hitting the hole hard.
It’s still early but thru 4 games Turner is at 87 carries for 323 yds and 5 td’s. His 2008 stats during the same time are 77 carries for 422 yards and 5 td’s (td’s scored in 2 of the 4 games). He’s played against the 5th (65 yds, 0 td), 8th (97 yds, 3 td’s), 11th (56 yds, 1 td), and 30th (105 yds, 1 td) ranked defenses to date, an average ranking of 13.5 which ironically coincides with your projection based off last year’s rankings. Small sample but as a fantasy owner, I’d take the decrease in yardage as long as the td’s remain the same, especially if the trend of scoring touchdowns in more games continues. A back scoring 1 td per game over 4 games is more valuable to a fantasy owner because of consistency than a back that scores 2 td’s in 2 of 4 games (obviously this also depends on yardage totals and scoring formats). Not sure if there is a stat showing avg. number of games scored in but there should be one.
It will be interesting to see where his stats end up.