As more and more keeper leagues pop up, August has become the month where fantasy owners have to decide which players they will keep. Sometimes this is an easy decision, but at other times, it may seem impossible.
I’ve been in the same keeper league for almost 10 years. Every summer we can freeze four players (with no draft pick penalty) as well as a prospect, which is defined as a player entering his second or third year in the league who has not finished in the top 20 at his position in his career. To freeze a prospect, we have to give up a 4th round pick.
Some owners are too forward-looking with regard to keepers. This is a great trait to have in dynasty leagues, where you holdover your roster from year to year, but in a keeper league where you only carry 2-4 players, being too forward-looking is a handicap. There’s one owner in our league who is always a year or two too early on a player. He picks players that will eventually be stars, but they won’t be on his roster when stardom finally hits.
When deciding between two players, my first concern is how much each player will be able to help me this year. I am not interested in winning the championship in four or five years. I want to win it now. So if Player A is 29 years-old and holds second round value and Player B is 23 and holds fourth round value, I’m going with Player A. He should have 2-3 good years left and that’s about as far out as my window extends.
However, if the two players are within a round in terms of value, things can change. Take LaDainian Tomlinson and Chris Johnson or Steve Slaton. LT2 is still a top 10 RB, and if he bounces back this season, he has a good shot of finishing in the Top 5. But he’s on the wrong side of 30 and showed signs last season of wearing down. Johnson and Slaton are both 23, and both finished ahead of Tomlinson last season. Even though I give LT2 an edge this season, I’d rather keep Johnson or Slaton, because they project to be top 10 backs for the next five years. In this case, Tomlinson’s current (perceived) edge does not outweigh Johnson or Slaton’s long-term value.
Then there’s the case of Kevin Smith, who finished as RB17 last season and is being drafted RB18 this year. All else being equal, I’m going to hold onto Tomlinson, because his value for 2009 outweighs Smith’s long-term upside. Now if there’s a price, things can change. Say I have to give up a 1st round pick for Tomlinson, but only have to give up a 4th for Smith. In that case, I’d keep Smith (because he’s a good value in the 4th) and use my 1st round pick on another player.
JP – great article….tough to find something like this out there in terms of guidance while picking keepers, which is funny to me knowing how many keeper leagues there are out there.
Also funny is that you compared LT2 & Slaton, who I had both on my squad last year. We have to pick 2 keepers and I am still deciding between:
P. Manning, RB
LT2, RB
Slaton, RB
R. Wayne, WR
R. White, WR
Housh-you-mamma, WR
these are all guys with a round 1-2 grade (maybe 3 for Peyton, 3-4 for Housh) but we play in a PPR league where we start 3 WR, 2RB, 1 TE (in other words, no flex).
I am leaning towards keeping Wayne & Slaton, though I would like to keep the Manning-Wayne connection together….hmmm.
Good article though for sure.
D
D – For what it’s worth, I’d go with Wayne and Slaton. With 2 RB and 3 WR starting, it diminishes the importance of the QB, and there’s a lot of depth there anyway.
Great article.
I have a pretty interesting scenario I’d be curious your thoughts on:
I can keep one player and I have both Adrian Peterson and D’Angelo Williams. I took AP with my first RD pick last year and D’Angelo with my 6th round pick. I have the second pick in the draft this year in a 12 team league(did a good job with RBs in last years draft but a terrible job with WRs and QBs) so if I keep AP I lose my first round pick and I won’t pick again until 23. If I keep D’Angelo I can basically have two of the top 10 RBs on my team before I make my second pick.
I guess where I’m struggling is with the drop off between AP and any other RB. Is that drop off big enough to keep AP?
Is this a PPR league? If not, AP is the clear #1, but if so, I actually prefer MJD to AP.
It sounds like you are choosing between keeping AP and your 6th round pick and keeping DeAngelo and your 1st round pick.
Not knowing who is going to be available, I’d say keep DeAngelo, since the price is much cheaper. To me, DeAngelo + Jackson/Gore/Portis is better than Peterson + Hines Ward/Cotchery/etc.
I’m in a one player keeper 12 team league with PPR for running backs. My dilema is this: keep Michael Turner who i drafted in the 5th round and if protected would be my 5th round pick this year, or Steve Slaton who was drafted 14th last year and would again be my 14th round pick if protected? At 1st it seemed obvious to go with MT, but a tougher schedule, Gonzalez in the mix, and the PPR in SS’s favor and the value of the 14th round makes it a tough one?
I have a keeper question for you too: DeAngelo Williams or Steve Slaton? It’s a one keeper, ppr, non-draft penalty league.
Any thoughts would be appreciated!
ssinohio — I actually think this is a no-brainer the other way. I like Turner all right, but I don’t see him getting 370 carries again and he doesn’t catch very many passes, so his value is somewhat diminished in a PPR league. So if you can keep Slaton (also a 1st/2nd round RB) and only have to give up a 14th pick, that’s what I’d recommend.
MilkMoney — I give DeAngelo the nod in that matchup. With Stewart limited due to injury, Williams should have a very good season. Maybe not quite as big as last year, but probably a bit bigger than Slaton.
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