Correcting Bill Simmons, Part 3: Bill is at it again
“The Sports Guy” is killing me. He’s at it again, harping on players that take too many three pointers even though they aren’t accurate from behind the stripe. I’ve already gone through this once, about a year ago, after Simmons slammed Tracy McGrady from shooting too many threes. Now, in his otherwise fine “Dumbleavy” diary/column, Bill’s targets are Baron Davis, Zach Randolph and…gulp…LeBron James.
7:35: LeBron bricks a 3-pointer that leads to Thornton’s fast-break dunk. Clips by 17, timeout Cavs. Let the record show that (A) LeBron is a 32.5 percent career 3-point shooter, (B) he went 0-for-6 in this particular game and (C) he should be fined every time he takes one.
6:54: Speaking of guys who should never shoot a 3, it’s Baron Davis! He just bricked one. If he told you that he’s a 32.3 percent career 3-point shooter and averaging 29.5 percent this season, then I told you that he takes five per game, would you believe me? You probably wouldn’t, right?
4:35: Randolph (aka Z-Bo) sinks an open 3 that he never should have taken because he’s a career 28.9 long-distance shooter. Maybe we should make it like a driver’s license — if you dip under 35 percent through 250 career attempts, you’re suspended from shooting 3s for a year?
Coaches live with guys shooting in the low 30’s from long range because…well…the shots are worth an extra point. It’s (almost) that simple.
LeBron is shooting 33.1% from long range on the season. He’s shooting 53.6% from two-point range. For argument’s sake, let’s say that for 100 straight possessions, LeBron launches a three every time down the court. If his numbers bear out, he’s going to make 33 of them, scoring 99 points. That’s 0.99 points per possession. Now, let’s say he shoots a two-pointer for 100 straight possessions. He’s going to make 54 of them, so he’ll score 108 points on 100 possessions, or 1.08 points per possession.
Now, for a guy like LeBron, it’s important to take free throws into account. He has taken 1,076 two-point shots and 667 free throws. According to 82games.com, he’s second in the league in “and 1’s” (where the player is fouled as he scores a bucket) with 82. That’s 1.17 a game.
Back to the 100-possession example. If LeBron takes 100 shots from inside the arc, based on his free throw numbers, he’s going to get fouled almost 24% of the time, assuming that the only time he’s fouled is when he’s attempting a shot…
= (667 free throws / 2 free throws per trip) / (333 trips to the line + 1076 two-point attempts)
= 23.6%
So he makes 41 buckets (76 actual attempts x 53.6% accuracy) for 82 points and shoots 48 free throws. His FT% is almost 77%, so he’s going to make approximately 37. So far, he’s at 119 points. Throw in some old-fashioned three-point plays (at a rate of 7.6%, so 5.8 additional free throw attempts on 76 two-point attempts), so rounding up that’s 5 additional points, for a total of 124 points (or 1.24 points per possession).
Is he better off with the two-pointer? Absolutely, but that doesn’t mean he should completely abandon the long ball.
LeBron’s game is predicated on driving to the hole. If he decides not to take any threes, defenders will know what he’s doing before he does it. Granted, that doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to stop him, but if he’s not a threat on the perimeter, then the defender will have a better chance to stay in front of him as he tries to go to the hole. Part of the reason LeBron gets fouled so much is because his defender is out of position when he closes out on LeBron, and that puts James at a distinct advantage when he does go to the hole.
If I were managing LeBron’s shots, I’d try to convince him to reduce his three-point attempts per game from 4.8 down to about 3.0 or 3.5. He has no business taking a contested three unless he’s up against the shot clock. But if he’s open, and his defender is laying off, he should try to make a couple to keep everyone honest.
Now Baron Davis is a different animal. He’s shooting just 30.5% from long range and 40.2% on two-pointers. According to his numbers, he’s going to get fouled 14.7% of the time he takes a shot inside the arc. So for the 100-possession example, he’s going to score 93 points if he takes 100 three-pointers. If he takes 100 two-point shots, he’s going to take 85 attempts (making 34) and go to the line 15 times, taking 30 free throws. He’ll make 76%, or 23 points. So far, he’s at 91 points (68 from made buckets + 23 free throws). He has 15 “and 1’s” on the season, so he’ll get an extra free throw 2.7% of the time, so that means an extra two points from the charity stripe for a total of 93 points.
So, for Davis, it doesn’t matter whether or not he launches a three or goes to the hole, he’s still scoring at about the same rate. (If I were coaching Davis, I’d try to get him to pass more!)
And Zach Randolph?
Ah, who cares…
All else being equal, it’s usually better to take the ball inside when you can. You’re going to get the other team in foul trouble and create openings for other players to score. But Simmons’ notion that if you shoot less than 35% from long range that you should be shooting any threes is just silly.
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Posted in: NBA
Tags: Baron Davis, Bill Simmons, correcting Bill Simmons, ESPN, LeBron James, The Sports Guy, Zach Randolph
I stumbled on this by mistake, but had to read to see if you had a point. Which you don’t. This is such an enormous waste of time. If a player took 100 shots down court? Why are we assuming that they are the only option. He’s saying Baron Davis shouldn’t be taking 3’s because there should be another option to take 3’s and even then he’s just saying he shouldn’t take them all the time. Obviously Zach Randolph shouldn’t be taking them. Lebron can hit them, but he can also drive and get other players open to him them, or just go to the net. This is such a useless article. I usually don’t do this, but it was important for me to write so that you don’t think whatever this is is some kind of statistical revlelation.
@Yup — Just read your comment to see if you had a point and you do, but your point is wrong…at least about Simmons. He’s not saying there is another option, he is saying that LeBron should not be taking threes because he is not a good three point shooter.
But people who understand basketball know that if you are a decent three point shooter you can enhance your ability to get to the hole by being a three-point threat. It pulls the defender up and makes it easier to get to the rim. Not to mention that LeBron is shooting almost 36% this season — so he’s improved quite a bit in that area. If LeBron stops shooting threes, the defender can lay off and it will make it tougher for him to get to the basket. This is Basketball 201.
Here’s what I wrote in my conclusion:
“All else being equal, it’s usually better to take the ball inside when you can. You’re going to get the other team in foul trouble and create openings for other players to score.”
And here’s what you wrote:
“Lebron can hit them, but he can also drive and get other players open to him them, or just go to the net.”
Really, you felt the need to post this comment? Thanks for stopping by.
I also stumbled upon this by mistake. Why do you have so many articles about one tiny thing Bill Simmons said. He only said “never shoot threes for effect”. What you wrote there is a complete waste of time. Also on what you wrote about Simmons being a GM, if you go and read his articles on the NBA draft over the years you will see why he should be a GM.
It’s not one tiny thing he said. He says it over and over as if it’s gospel. And it’s not. If you are a perimeter player, it’s good to be a three-point threat because it will pull the defender up and make it easier to get to the hole. If a player completely stops shooting threes, the defender can lay off of him and the drive becomes more difficult. Why this is so difficult to understand, I do not know.
I’ve read lots of his articles about the NBA. He has an expansive knowledge of the NBA and NBA history but a superficial knowledge of the game – he wouldn’t be any worse than many of the GMs in the league, but he’s not some general managing genius, either.