Alex Rodiguez has torpedoed my fantasy draft strategy
All 2009 Fantasy Articles | 2009 Position Rankings
The collective groan you heard when Alex Rodriguez announced that he would have “hybrid” surgery to repair his injured hip was not solely the work of the Yankee faithful. The ramifications in fantasy circles are staggering, especially if you, like me, happen to have the fifth pick in your draft.
Just a few days ago, I thought I had my draft strategy all figured out. The first round would simply be a matter of which of the Big Five (Hanley, Reyes, Pujols, A-Rod, Wright) fell to me. The mock drafts I conducted a few weeks ago indicated that Wright would be my guy, which was fine with me. The post-surgery view from the five-hole, however, is bleak. The Big Five is now the Big Four – Rodriguez is currently sitting at #49 in my draft room – and whichever player I take with my first pick now feels like a reach. However, after doing some stat sorting, I found my guy. He’s a former MVP with pop and speed. So why don’t I want to take him?
Because it’s the same guy I drafted with my first pick last year: Jimmy Rollins.
Before you Philly fanatics start throwing batteries at me, let me state for the record that I think Rollins is a damn fine ball player (obviously, or I wouldn’t have drafted him last year). My reluctance to take him is something that sabremetricians never factor into their projections: keeper fatigue. Truth be told, I’m kind of bored with Rollins. I was really looking forward to owning Wright, or Rodriguez, or someone else, anyone else, besides Rollins. It’s nothing personal; his stats are phenomenal, especially at one of the thinnest positions in the game. I just wanted some variety.
So why not draft someone else, then? Grady Sizemore is sitting at #6, screaming my name. He’s 27 – unlike rock stars, 27 is a great year to be a baseball player – and has 40-40 written all over him (plus, my wife thinks he’s cute). So why not take him? Two words: position scarcity. Actually, here are two more words: points league. I play in a league that keeps track of 34 different stats (17 for hitters, 17 for pitchers), and the combination of various hits plus stolen bases minus strikeouts, errors and getting caught stealing (once, when I was five) produces some strange results. Case in point: Johnny Damon scored more points last year than Aramis Ramirez, Miguel Cabrera and even Ryan Howard. Rollins, like Damon, isn’t as sexy a pick as he once was, but the simple fact is that it’s a lot harder to find a shortstop that can score over 500 points (there are three) than it is to find an outfielder (18) or first baseman (seven) that can do the same. In fact, the gulf between Rollins and the next shortstop is nearly 150 points. He was even injured last year, and still outscored the next shortstop by 90 points. The gap between Sizemore and the next outfielder, by comparison, is 30 points, so I can definitely get Sizemore-type production in the second or third round. It’s a no-brainer, really.
And I still don’t want to do it. Ugh.
That’s only half of my dilemma, though; what on earth do I do with Rodriguez? He had the surgery today and is scheduled to return in early May. There is just one problem: we have no idea when he’ll really return, and what kind of frame of mind he’ll be in when he does. Will the steroids talk have died down for good – insert your own “injury” conspiracy theory here – or will another wave of bad press hit between now and then? Personally, I’m not counting on him playing a game until Memorial Day, but will the other managers downgrade him as much as I am? It’s like playing Texas Hold ‘Em with baseball players. Hmmm, maybe that’s why there has been so much pious talk about how disappointed everyone is with Rodriguez because he tarnished the game, or whatever. People just want to devalue him so they can steal him in the seventh round.
But is even that a safe pick? There are dozens of other, healthier, and most importantly younger players out there. Would a full season of a lesser player be better than four and a half months of Rodriguez? Or are injuries overrated when it comes to the studs? After all, I passed up Pujols in the second round last year because I thought he was one bean ball away from Tommy John Surgery on that elbow of his. Man, did he show me.
So let me hear it, fellow fantasy dorks. What are you planning on doing with A-Rod? Avoiding him altogether, or waiting until the price is right? And what is the right price?
Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom.
Just when things seem to be a little clearer on the Chase Utley front, A-Rod goes down for who knows how long. I really don’t know what to do with him on draft day either. His Average Draft Position on ESPN is down to 25, and that should continue to plummet. Meanwhile, he’s down to #31 on ESPN’s Top 100 rankings, which still seems too high to me. Would you rather have a full season of Justin Morneau or Brandon Phillips, or 2/3 of a season of A-Rod? And how healthy will he be when he’s actually on the field? Word is this surgery won’t cure the problem, just allow him to play this year. Sounds promising….
Drafts are much more organic than any list of draft results is going to tell you, so it’s tough for me to gauge how high would be too high to take A-Rod. That said, I’d probably look for him in the 40-50 range. The funny thing is, I don’t know if that’s too conservative, too aggressive or just right. I’m not convinced he’ll be the same guy even when he returns, but it’s also tough to pass on that kind of talent in the fourth or fifth round.
Of course, there’s a very real chance he’ll be gone before the fourth or fifth round anyway.
Right now, I’m thinking that I won’t take him any sooner than the sixth round, and even then it all depends on who else is still on the board.
I don’t know much about fantasy baseball, but when dealing with a star that’s injured/suspended at the start of the season, it’s smart not to wait too long on him. If you think you have a great shot for the postseason, then you could conceivably add the #4 or #5 player at a steep discount. Just ask guys who passed on Steve Smith and Brandon Marshall in the third or fourth rounds of fantasy football drafts last season. (Granted, you’d rather have a guy coming off of suspension than coming off of an injury for obvious reasons.)
“…and even then it all depends on who else is still on the board.”
That’s what makes this tough, because no matter what anyone says now, there’s no way of knowing when the time in your draft will come that you look at the board and say, “Shit, I can’t justify taking any of these scrubs ahead of A-Rod, injury or no injury.” And with each passing round, it will become more and more tempting to draft A-Rod and stash him until he comes back.
I don’t think there’s any way he lasts until the sixth round in most leagues.
Question I have A-rod in my keeper league that has 3 keepers, I have someone interested in trading for him. Offer is A-rod and my third pick which is like a sixth rounder in a straight draft for Longoria and their 13th pick which is like a 16th rounder in a straight draft do you think I should make the trade.
Hey Stew, I answered your question over on our Fantasy Baseball Q&A. Feel free to post any of your questions there.