What would a college football playoff look like this year? (Part 3)
(Be sure to check out Part 1 and Part 2 of this series.)
With Oklahoma vaulting ahead of Texas in the BCS standings, it is a clear reminder that the BCS system is horribly flawed. Each team has one loss and Texas beat Oklahoma on a neutral field. Texas’ only loss was to a good Texas Tech team on the road, and it shouldn’t outweigh the Longhorns’ win over the Sooners. Oklahoma did have two great non-conference wins (Cincinnati and TCU), while Texas didn’t really play anyone out of conference. Still, should a strong non-conference schedule outweigh Texas head-to-head win over Oklahoma? Apparently, USA Today and the computer rankings think so. (For their part, Harris Poll voters had Texas #3 and Oklahoma #4.)
This brings me back to my proposed eight-team playoff that I introduced a couple of weeks ago. Here are the assumptions.
1. There will be an eight-team playoff, with the six BCS-conference champs getting an automatic bid.
2. If a conference champ is ranked lower than #15 in the rankings, they give up their automatic bid and it becomes an at-large bid. (This rule is to ensure that the regular season keeps its meaning and only the elite teams make the playoffs.)
3. Seeds and at-large bids are distributed based on the current BCS standings. Certainly, these rankings can be tweaked, but they are fine for now. If an at-large team has a better BCS ranking than a conference champion, they will get a higher seed.
4. There will be three rounds of playoffs. The first round will be held at the home stadium of the higher-seeded team. The semifinals and the final will rotate amongst the four BCS cities (Miami, Pasadena, Tempe and New Orleans).
So how does this weekend’s action affect the playoff field?
8-seed Cincinnati @ 1-seed Alabama
A 30-10 win over Syracuse puts the Bearcats at #13. Cincy still has to beat Hawaii to stay playoff-eligible. Meanwhile, Alabama has a date with #4 Florida in the SEC Championship Game this Saturday.
5-seed USC @ 4-seed Florida
Since the Gators still have to play Alabama, this matchup probably won’t happen since Florida will likely move up or down in the BCS rankings depending on how they fare against the Crimson Tide. A bad loss to Alabama might knock the Gators out of the playoffs since the #7 and #8 seeds are conference champions, and Boston College might very well move into the playoffs with a win over Virginia Tech. If that were to happen, and USC were to leapfrog Florida, the Gators could very well miss the playoffs.
6-seed Utah @ 3-seed Texas
Utah remains the only non-BCS conference representative. With wins over #11 TCU and #18 BYU, they have the best resume of the three non-BCS schools in contention. (Boise St. and Ball St. are the other two.) The Utes need to root for a Virginia Tech win over Boston College.
7-seed Penn St. @ 2-seed Oklahoma
OU still has to beat Missouri in the Big 12 Championship Game to remain the 2-seed. If Alabama loses to Florida and the Sooners are convincing in their win over the Tigers, they could move up. They could also fall completely out of the playoffs with a loss to Missouri.
Since Cincy moved into the BCS Top 15, they earned a berth in the playoffs. The lowest ranked at-large team – Texas Tech – were pushed out of the playoffs. #17 Boston College could conceivably move into the Top 15 with a win over #25 Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game, and in that case, Utah would likely be the team to be knocked out of the playoffs. (And that would be a shame.)
Of the teams that are on the outside looking in, only #9 Boise St. and #12 Ball St. don’t have losses to teams that made the playoffs. #10 Ohio St. lost to USC and Penn St., #11 TCU lost to Oklahoma, and #14 Oklahoma St. lost to Texas and Oklahoma. So, despite what the anti-playoff crowd says, the regular season still matters with this playoff system.
Since it looks like Boise St. and Ball St. will miss the playoffs, and a Boston College win might push Utah out, it might be interesting to have a four-team playoff amongst the best non-BCS teams to see who has the right to make the playoffs. Of course, this would add two games to the schedule and it might just be easier just to go to a 12-team field (though most of those extra slots could easily go to BCS schools like Texas Tech and Ohio St.)
Check out Part 4 now.
“Since it looks like Boise St. and Ball St. will miss the playoffs, and a Boston College win might push Utah out, it might be interesting to have a four-team playoff amongst the best non-BCS teams to see who has the right to make the playoffs.”
Two different playoff formats?? BCS supporters just crapped themseleves at the thought. (As did non-BCS supporters.)
You’re a greedy, greedy man John Paulsen.
It is simple: #1 plays #4 in the host bowl of #1.
#2 plays #3 in the host bowl of #2. The exceptions are 1. swap #3 and #4 if it means a game from the same conference 2. swap #3 and #4 if the game means a rematch. Today’s playoff would be #1 Alabama hosting #3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl (swap #3Texas with #4 Florida to avoid conference game). #2 Oklahoma would host #4 Florida in the Fiesta Bowl. the BCS game would be the next week. Easy to understand with no drawbacks. Same as a Final Four.
I don’t think it’s that simple, Brad. What about USC? Utah? Boise St.? Ball St.? Penn St.? Who’s to say that those teams aren’t amongst the top four in the nation?
Anthony – I just mentioned a non-BCS playoff to allow those teams to compete. Throw four of them together (Utah, Boise, Ball and maybe TCU) and the winner gets to play in the Show. It would be fun.
I like the plan…especially with the provision that if a conf. champ is out of the top 15, they are out of the playoffs.
For the NON BCS playoffs, I think that the 4th team should be Tulsa (if they win Conference USA).
I look forward to the final standings.
It still stinks that Texas Tech would get left behind. But that will always be the battle: including non deserving teams or excluding deserving teams.
The one plan that I saw last year had 12 teams in the playoffs. The 6 BCS champs, the 2 highest ranked non BCS champs and 4 at large teams. As of now, this plan would have(in no particular order); PSU, BC, CINCY, USC, OKLAHAMA,ALABAMA, UTAH, BOISE, TEXAS, TEXAS TECH, OHIO STATE AND FLORIDA
I can’t think of any deserving teams being left out (except for maybe Ball St. over Ohio State)
Too bad none of these plans would ever happen.
I have two issues with going larger than 8 teams. 1) at what point do the playoffs become too inclusive? the BCS-apologists main argument is that a playoff would make the regular season less meaningful, and while I don’t agree with that argument when you’re talking about an eight- (or 12-team) field, it does hold water as you get bigger. 2) it adds an extra game to the schedule, but those teams that don’t have a bye are less likely to be playing four extra games. Most teams in the playoffs would play three or fewer games. (i.e. the only team that would play four games would be one that didn’t have a bye in the first round and made it all the way to the final game.)
Is part IV up yet? I want to see the final brackets.
It’s up. Thanks for your interest.
I don’t quite understand the argument that 12 teams would make the regular season meaningless when you’re only allowing 10% of all Division I teams to play for the championship. If you don’t win during the regular season, you won’t be playing, and only a top 12 birth gets you in. No team in the top 12 has more than 2 losses this year and you could make an argument for any of them to have a shot (well, except maybe Ohio State). Since only a few of the big boys have the balls to schedule real non-conference games, it’s virtually impossible to tell what teams are the best and what teams are pretenders (See: the SEC) and a larger sample gives you a better shot that the true best team will win the tournament.
However the change I would make is the top 4 teams receive a bye week and the bottom 8 play-in to make the final 8.
There are a lot of ways you can do it but with the way teams schedule non-conference patsies you need a larger sample of teams if you want to find the true national champion.