Day: May 6, 2008

It’s still way too early in the series to write the defending champs off, but I think that even the most ardent San Antonio supporter would admit that things aren’t looking too good. The Spurs entered the series with a serious advantage in playoff experience, but all that’s got them thus far is a pair of 18+ point defeats.

It looks like the Hornets are a horrible matchup for the Spurs. San Antonio’s offense starts with Tony Parker, who is typically able to use his quickness to get into the lane at will. But with the speedy Chris Paul and even speedier Jannero Pargo splitting defensive duties, those driving lanes aren’t nearly as open as they usually are. If Parker’s jumper isn’t falling – and at the moment it isn’t – his effectiveness is severely limited.

Inside, the Hornets are trapping Tim Duncan just about every time he gets the ball. Tyson Chandler is the type of player that can give Duncan problems down low. He’s long and very athletic, and he has enough strength to keep Duncan from getting deep post position. They aren’t trapping every time he gets the ball, and that’s playing mind games with Duncan, who doesn’t know for sure if the double-team is coming. The Hornets’ plan is to get the ball out of Duncan’s hands and force some of these other players – Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Kurt Thomas, Ime Udoka, etc. – to beat them. The neat thing is that the Hornets have enough team speed to rotate (or recover) to those perimeter shooters, so those open shots aren’t so open.

In my preview, I suggested that the Hornets might use Julian Wright, the very athletic rookie out of Kansas, to cover Manu Ginobili, and they have. He has long arms and a great motor, and he’s been able to keep Ginobili from getting a good offensive rhythym. They are also surprising Ginobili with the occasional double-team when he’s near the sideline, which contributed to three straight first half turnovers by the reigning Sixth Man of the Year.

Offensively, the Hornets can hurt you in so many ways. Chris Paul looks like he’s toying with Bruce Bowen, and the Spurs simply don’t have a matchup with David West, who is displaying a serious mean streak. Throw in some terrific shooting from Wright, Peja Stojakovic and Morris Peterson, and the Spurs have their hands full.

Game 3 is an obvious must-win for the Spurs, and I expect them to give it everything they’ve got. There’s still a chance that Pop will make the necessary adjustments and turn the tide of the series, but Byron Scott is no pushover when it comes to strategy.

Basketball is a funny game sometimes. On paper, it looked like Boston’s first round series would be a cakewalk. Here you go, Big Three. Here’s a young, inexperienced 37-45 team to sweep before you give your old bones some rest. Or, if you want, you can drop a game in Atlanta so you can give your fans a treat and win Game 5 in front of them.

Only it didn’t work out that way. The young Hawks were a different (i.e. good) team at home. The city of Atlanta, not known for supporting semi-lost causes, turned out in force and gave the Hawks an extra edge at home. While it was interesting to see the Celtics handle a tough series like that, none of these guys wants to play a seven-game series in the first round against a team with a losing record.

Is Boston’s confidence shaken? Maybe not shaken, but there are certainly some chinks in the armor. It remains to be seen whether or not they use the series to circle the wagons, utilizing this ubuntu thing I keep hearing about. But one thing’s for sure – the Celtics move forward knowing that they are not invincible, especially on the road.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers come into the season fresh off an oddly schizophrenic series against the Wizards. It’s clear that those two teams are developing something of a rivalry, so even if neither of the teams were particularly good, the series was still somewhat compelling. The presence and growth of LeBron James is one of the league’s major macro storylines, so in that respect the NBA is fortunate that the Cavs made it to round two. Now the King takes his ragtag band into the lion’s den, to face the mighty Celtics.

The Cavs are 5 to 1 underdogs, and it’s easy to see why. Other than Zydrunas Ilgauskas, LeBron doesn’t have much (experienced) help on the offensive end. There’s the sharp-shooting backcourt of Daniel Gibson and Delonte West, but Wally Szczerbiak has pretty much been a no show since arriving in Cleveland. It’s going to take a superhuman effort from James to keep the Cavs in the series.

Is this a possibility? Sure. Paul Pierce will likely be tasked with covering James that the start, and he’s not known for his defensive prowess. James Posey is probably the C’s best answer for LeBron, but in order to have Pierce, KG and Ray-Ray on the floor at the same time, Pierce will have to guard the Cavs’ power forward – Ben Wallace or Anderson Varejao. The good news is that Allen’s suspect defense shouldn’t be exposed against like it was against Joe Johnson, as neither West nor Gibson drives the ball much. Jesus Shuttlesworth will be asked to stay home on his guy, and that’s something he can do.

I don’t think the Celtics will have much of a problem winning the first two games at home and I think it will be tough for the Cavs to win both Game 3 and Game 4, so this series looks like “Boston in 5.”