Denver Nuggets: Good defensive team?
The Warriors got off to a great start in the first quarter, but as soon as the Nuggets switched to a zone, the momentum shifted and Denver coasted to a 114-105 win in Oakland. The win gives Denver a full game lead on the Warriors, but the Nuggets also own the head-to-head tiebraker, so they essentially have a two game lead with three games to play.
As I was reading up on the game today, I ran across a ton of commentary about how bad these two teams are defensively. It got me wondering, just how bad are they? Well, it’s true that these two teams allow the most points in the league, but they also play at a very high pace, so there are more possessions, which means their opponents have more chances to score. It’s not really fair to judge their defense without taking into account their pace, is it?
John Hollinger is ESPN’s numbers guy, and he keeps track of pace as well as offensive and defensive efficiency. The results are interesting. Unsurprisingly, Denver and Golden State are 1/2 in pace. The Nuggets play an average of 102.1 possessions per game while the Warriors play 101.2. Hollinger’s defensive efficiency number is simply the number of points a team allows divided by 100 possessions. Denver and Golden State are terrible, right? Wrong. While the Warriors are just on the edge of the bottom third (#20) the Nuggets finish a respectable 10th.
That means that possession for possession, the Nuggets do a fairly good job of playing defense. This conclusion is backed up by the fact that they are in the middle of the pack (13th) in defensive field goal percentage. (Golden State is a less-than-mediocre 22nd.)
So next time your buddy knocks the Nuggets, bet him that Denver is in the top half of the league in defensive efficiency and opponents’ field goal percentage. You’re bound to win some dough.
That’s pretty interesting. You never really think about how offensive pace can affect a team’s defensive performance.
I like the Nuggets and love their talent. I also think they’d be a tough out for any team in the West…
By the way, good call on the Nuggets winning last night. They looked pretty solid once they switched to a zone defense. That’s not George Karl’s philosophy, but give him credit for understanding that it’s worthwhile to try something else if your base defense isn’t working.
I only caught the tale end of the game, so I didn’t see the adjustment, but that’s a good observation if that’s how they eventually pulled away.
I don’t know hard facts, but it seems like the Nuggets have played GS tough over the past couple years.
Kinda sorta not really. The problem with numbers is that they’re averages – they don’t take a team’s personality or tendencies into account.
The Nuggets have a tendency to play part-time defense. Good defense for one or two quarters, then very little for the rest of the game. It’s very frustrating to watch, because they make the game much harder for themselves than it needs to be.
The personality of the team is scoring first – they think they can score their way to a win, but how many times have we seen that fail?
To understand the Nuggets defense is to know three things –
1. Their perimeter D is below average – A.I. and Melo aren’t exactly “stoppers”. They come up with steals, but they don’t like playing position defense with their feet.
2. Why run out and challenge a shooter when you can leak out for a football pass and an easy dunk? Keep in mind Denver’s opponents shoot almost 37% from 3pt land, placing them in the bottom half of the league in that category.
3. Defense is hard, so it only makes sense to do it for part of the game.
Having said all that, I’m a big fan and I hope they crush the Hornets like the bugs they are!!
I don’t get a chance to watch a ton of Nuggets games, and that is certainly a better way to see if they’re putting forth the effort. But numbers are numbers, and possession by possession, the Nuggets are the 10th best defensive team in the league. It makes me wonder what they could do if they played D for a full game.