Day: April 19, 2007

Was the 1985 Draft Lottery really fixed?

Bill Simmons is all riled up over some video of the 1985 Draft Lottery that supposedly proves that it was indeed fixed. If you remember, the Knicks won the lottery (and the right to draft Patrick Ewing) in a time when the league’s marquee franchise was in dire trouble. I’ll let Simmons set it up:

Just in case they pull down the clip between the time we post this blog and the time you read this, here’s what happens: when an accountant from Ernst & Whinney throws the seven envelopes into the glass drum, he bangs the fourth one against the side of the drum to create a creased corner (we’ll explain why this is relevant in a second). Then he pulls a handle and turns the drum around a couple of times to “mix” the envelopes up. At the 5:23 mark of the clip, Stern heads over to the drum, unlocks it and awkwardly reaches inside for the first envelope (the No. 1 pick). He grabs three envelopes that are bunched together, pretends not to look (although he does) and flips the three envelopes so the one on the bottom ends up in his hand. Then he pulls that envelope out at the 5:32 mark … and, of course, it’s the Knicks envelope.

Now …

A reader named Greg K. from Fair Lawn, N.J. (I’d give you his whole name, but I don’t want him to be randomly found dead in his bathtub tonight), pointed this out to me: If you look closely right at the 5:31 mark, right as the commish yanks that Knicks envelope out, there’s a noticeable crease in the corner of the envelope. You can see it for a split-second — as he pulls the envelope up, it’s on the corner that’s pointing toward the bottom of the jar.

There’s a giant crease! It’s right there! The same one the accountant created as he was throwing the envelopes into the drum!

So you’re telling me that, out of the seven envelopes in that glass drum, during a lottery when the NBA desperately needed the most ballyhooed college center in 15 years to save the league’s marquee franchise, the commissioner coincidentally pulled out the envelope with a giant crease in the corner that happened to have the Knicks logo in it? This is the Zapruder film of sports tapes, isn’t it? Where’s Oliver Stone? Can we pull him out of the editing room for the “Alexander: The Really, REALLY Long Director’s Cut” DVD?

Here’s the video – watch it for yourself. You can skip ahead to the part when the accountant puts the envelopes in the hopper and see if he intentionally banged the envelope.

My dad always claimed that this lottery was fixed, and I never was sure if I believed him. After watching the video, I’m still not sure. As always, I do have a few comments:

(1) It’s weird to see Pat O’Brien reporting on something meaningful.

(2) If the Knicks’ envelope was really one the accountant (intentionally) banged, I have a theory why it was the fourth. If he knew the Knicks were in the fourth spot in his stack and there were seven envelopes in total, he could comfortably turn the stack over and the Knicks’ envelope would still be in the middle. There would be no chance of a mixup on the way to the stage.

(3) The Knicks’ envelope could have been creased as the envelopes jumped around in the hopper. The force of the fall is just as strong as (if not stronger than) the accountant’s bang. Just watch the envelopes as they get mixed. If they wanted to fix the lottery, they’d be better off pre-creasing the envelope or freezing it, like other conspiracy theorists have suggested.

What do you think?

The mess in Minnesota

Last night, the Timberwolves lost their seventh straight game, which turned out to be a blessing for the team, as the loss allowed them to keep their top 10 pick in this summer’s draft. (Had they won, there was a chance that they’d have to send the pick – if it landed at #11 or later – to the Clippers as part of the Marko Jaric/Sam Cassell trade.) Did the team tank on purpose? I don’t know. I didn’t watch the game but there is a lot of talk today about how the Wolves looked like they were trying to lose the game.

Regardless, Kevin McHale held a press conference today and, instead of announcing the news just about everyone in Minnesota wanted to hear – that he had decided to resign – he announced that he’s going to be the GM for another season.

Moreover, he said there were no plans to trade Kevin Garnett. He did say he planned to rework the team to give KG a better supporting cast.

Oh, really? Hasn’t that been your job for the last ten years?

One of the definitions of stupidity is when we do the same thing over and over, expecting a different result. That seems to be what’s happening here.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying McHale is a stupid man. On the contrary, he’s probably very bright.

But he hasn’t done a good job the last few years. McHale has been the GM since 1995 and has rode his one great draft pick into the ground.

Here are the Wolves’ win totals for the last twelve seasons: 26, 40, 45, 25, 50, 47, 50, 51, 58, 44, 33 and 32. Notice a trend? The Timberwolves rose with the emergence of KG and, after the pinnacle of a Western Conference Finals loss to the Lakers in 2004, it has been all downhill.

It’s time to find someone else to steer the ship.

Lately, Garnett has been more pensive about his legacy than he ever has, but it still doesn’t look like he’s going to demand a trade. He does have the option to opt-out of his contract after next season and become a free agent. However, that would involve a big pay cut. But at this point, you have to think that his legacy is more important to him than a few extra million, right?

Right???

NBA Playoff Primer

Finally, the regular season is over and the NBA Playoffs are set. Everybody knows that they’re way too long (let’s shorten each series to a best of three!), but with all these games over the next couple of months, there are going to be some exciting finishes. Let’s take a look at the keys to each first round matchup:

EASTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Detroit vs. #8 Orlando (Pistons won the season series, 4-0)
No Ben Wallace? No problem. The Pistons have done just fine without Wallace, taking advantage of the Sixers decision to buyout Chris Webber’s contract. Meanwhile, Dwight Howard has taken advantage of the Pistons’ lack of interior defense, posting 21/14 in four losses. Expect a big series from Howard, but the Pistons are better at every other position, and should win in four or five games.

#4 Miami vs. #5 Chicago (Bulls, 3-1)
The Bulls blew a great opportunity to wrap up the #2 seed and a relatively easy road to the Eastern Conference Finals by losing at New Jersey last night. Now they’ll have to go through Miami and (probably) Detroit to get there. This series depends on the health of Dwyane Wade. Which guy is going to show up – the 25+ point Wade that we saw most of the season or the 15-point version we’ve seen in April? If he’s truly back, then we’ll see if Ben Wallace is worth the money, because the Bulls will have to keep Shaq under control to advance. This series is the most compelling in the East, and the Bulls should have the youth and health to get by the defending champs. Besides, since they have the better regular season record, they have home court advantage.

#2 Cleveland vs. #7 Washington (Cavs, 2-1)
LeBron James and Gilbert Arenas treated us to a great series last season, but the Wizards have limped into the postseason after losing their star. This series should be over quickly.

#3 Toronto vs. #6 New Jersey (season series tied, 2-2)
This is the other compelling series in the East. The Nets have all the stars – Jason Kidd, Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson – to make a deep run, but the upstart Raptors are coming off their best season in years and Chris Bosh leads a balanced team. With their experience, the Nets probably should win this series, but the Raptors are dangerous.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

#1 Dallas vs. #Golden State (Warriors, 3-0)
That’s not a typo. Golden State has beaten Dallas five straight times and won six of the last seven, so they have the juice to win a game or two in this series. Hell, if the Mavs aren’t focused, it could go to a Game 7, but it’s doubtful that it will get that far. The series pits both coaches against their former teams – Don Nelson used to coach the Mavs and Avery Johnson played point for Golden State – so these teams know each other very well. Don’t be surprised if things get chippy.

#4 Utah vs. #5 Houston (Jazz, 3-1)
Houston had the better regular season record, so they will host Game 7 if it comes to that. This series pits two hard-working, defensive teams and should be a knock down, drag out fight. With a healthy Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming, the Rockets hold a slight advantage. Either team could give the Mavs a good run in the second round, but this series might take too much out of the winner.

#2 Phoenix vs. #7 Los Angeles Lakers (Suns, 3-1)
The Lakers took the Suns to a seventh game last year, but these Lakers just don’t look as good. Oh, and last year, the Suns didn’t have Amare Stoudemire, either. The guy has been on an absolute tear, averaging 20/10 after sitting out much of last season due to a knee injury. The Suns should win this series in five, allowing for one of those games where Kobe takes the Lakers on his back and wills them to a victory.

#3 San Antonio vs. #6 Denver (Spurs, 2-1)
This series will be a contrast in styles. On one hand, you have the Nuggets who want to push the ball with Allen Iverson and Carmelo Anthony, and on the other, you have the Spurs who play a deliberate, grind-it-out game. Defense usually wins in the playoffs, so the Spurs have the advantage. Still, it will be fun to watch Iverson play his first playoff game as a Nugget.

The action tips off this weekend with four games on Saturday (ESPN & ABC) and four games on Sunday (TNT & ABC).