Frank Caliendo: The NFL Predicting Genius
Do yourself a favor and go to FOX Sports’ “Funhouse” page.
Click on the video feature in the top right corner with Frank Caliendo made up to look like James Brown. After a quick ad, the link will take you to a video clip of Joe Buck prefacing Calindeno’s predictions for four NFL games.
After hailing Caliendo’s 65% pick rate last year – including 8-1 in playoffs mind you –
Calindeno goes on to give out these beauties:
Denver over St. Louis
Tampa Bay over Baltimore
Carolina over Atlanta
Here’s the kicker though: Cincinnati over Kansas City was his “upset special”.
Upset special? Freaking Cincinnati over Kansas City is an “upset special”? That’s like having the Jets over the Titans in your upset special or Steelers over Dolphins, because hey, the line was even.
I like Caliendo’s impressions, but come on hoss, you got to do better than 1-4. Plus your upset special is a team that won its division last year over a squad who hasn’t figured out its defense and whose offensive line is in turmoil?
Wow Frank, way to go out on a limb.
The guy goes 2-0 with his Bullz-Eye picks this week and thinks he’s all that! Ha!
Hey Stalter, how’d that FSU/Miami game treat you last week?
In Frank’s defense, KC was favored by 3.5 over Cincinnati, so the Bengals’ win does constitute an “upset,” and a reasonably-sized one – in the world of wagering, at least.
On the other hand, the other three teams he picked were favored by 3 or more points, so to lose all three outright is pretty bad. Plus, it looks like that “65%” winning rate doesn’t take into account the point spreads. Great touts will have seasons of 55-60% against the spread, but anyone who’s claiming a better percentage against the spread simply isn’t telling the public the whole story.
Haha, JEC put my ego back in check!
Hey, I admitted that I was wrong on the FSU/Miami pick under another post so lay off me huh?!? Hey, at least I was close with the score and if Miami had something resembling an offense I’d be 3-0 right now!
Man, tough crowd…
-Anthony-
JP – I’m not sure I agree with that, Every home team gets +3 points just for being at home, so this was really a pick em game, and the uncertainty around Carson Palmer’s injury is the only reason the Bengals were not favored. I think calling it an upset special is a huge leap.
I think Caliendo was looking for a gimme “Upset Special.” If I’m laying money on that Cin/KC game, I’m picking the Bengals. Easily. If they’re also getting 3.5 points…? No brainer. Caliendo was padding his stats.
And Stalter, sorry man, but no free rides here.
It was a pick ‘em game if the two teams were on a neutral field, but the fact that the Chiefs were at home at Arrowhead made them the favorites. If an underdog beats a favorite, it’s technically an upset. Sure CIN over KC isn’t a huge upset, but anytime a team wins straight up when getting more than a field goal, it’s a moderately-sized upset – in Vegas, anyway.
>>If I’m laying money on that Cin/KC game, I’m picking the Bengals. Easily.
This game had a line that would make a lot of bettors consider it a “trap game.” It’s a line that seems off, too good to be true, but usually ends up going the other way. Of course, Week 1 is a good time to snatch up such lines.
John…great point. It was your prototypical trap game with the chalk making the Bengals look like the pick of the season. I’ve learned that if it’s too good to be true…it usually is. This time the Bengals did indeed cover…but keep your eye out for other trap games later in the season and I’d be willing to bet that if you consistently bet on the team that looks “too good to be true” you will come out a loser.
Exception: Texas vs OSU. That was another great trap game where, as it was said above, the only reason Texas was favored was b/c of the home-field advantage. Home field is far more important in college than in pro, but saying that the home team will get 3 points right out of the gate is an extremely accurate statement for both college and pro.