Posted on Tuesday 11 July 2006
If the reports are true about LeBron James agreeing to a three-year extension with a player option for a fourth season, instead of the max five-year deal, things in Cleveland are about to get very interesting.
If he were to decline his player option after the 2009-10 season, James would move into a higher salary bracket. As a seven-year veteran, he would be able to sign a contract paying up to 30 percent of a team’s salary cap, as opposed to his current ceiling of 25 percent.
Okay, so financially, this move makes sense for LeBron since he would be able to sign an even bigger contract once those three years run out, but let’s not kid ourselves: there’s much more than money motivating this decision for LBJ. He’s a loyal guy and, as I’ve stated before, I believe him when he says he wants to stay in Cleveland for his entire career. But wanting to stay and being compelled to stay are two very different things.
The Cavaliers aren’t getting a free pass here, no hometown discounts and no benefits of the doubt. LeBron wants to win, especially after his buddy Dwayne Wade hoisted the championship trophy over his head last month. If his player option comes up in four years and LeBron’s not happy with the direction of the franchise, he’ll bolt, hometown roots be damned. Playing at home for your entire career is a great story but it’s an incomplete story if there’s no championship involved. If LBJ can’t get his ring in Cleveland, he’ll get it somewhere else.
Which puts the pressure squarely on GM Danny Ferry and owner Dan Gilbert. Ferry came from San Antonio, a franchise that placed high value on big men in the middle. Hey, that philosophy works great if you’ve got David Robinson and Tim Duncan on your roster, and if you don’t have arguably the best player on the planet at small forward. Zydrunas Ilgauskas has his moments and he’s always been a fan favorite, especially once he kicked his foot problems and became one of the better low-post scorers in the East. Unfortunately, he doesn’t fit in Cleveland.
With the new rules coming into play next season, teams are going to start playing more up-tempo basketball. With the talent they have, the Cavs could be a very good up-tempo team, pushing the ball aggressively up the floor looking for high-percentage shots. The only problem is, their starting center is about as up-tempo as a funeral procession. Dude can’t run. In fact, you don’t want dude to run because every time he does, he looks like a wounded giraffe galloping down the court and you’re sure that, one of these times, he’s going to lose his balance, topple over and break his wrist, ankle or, even worse, his foot.
Z is built for the half-court game but the Cavaliers are built for the run-and-gun game. If LeBron, Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Donyell Marshall and Shannon Brown (yeah, I’m excited about this guy) were on the run all game, they’d be one of the most explosive offensive teams around. But they’ve got Z holding them back.
Even worse, the front office has Z’s contract holding them back for another four years. The Larry Hughes contract is almost as bad but, assuming he’s healthy, he’s still a much better fit on this team than Z. The Cavs need an athletic big man who can run, block shots and play solid D in the post more than they need a stationary guy with a great low-post game who’s a liability in transition and mediocre at best defensively.
So what to do? The Dans need to figure out how to clear Z’s contract off the books and start building an athletic roster top to bottom. Would they even be able to move Z? I’m sure someone out there who’s enamored with offensive-minded centers would love to have him; question is, who is that and what are they willing to give up in return?
These next four years are the most important four years in Cavaliers franchise history, without question. Ferry and Gilbert can’t afford to make any mistakes, and they can’t let past mistakes continue to haunt them. Every contract they take on needs to contribute to this four-year plan, every rookie they draft needs to fit the system, and every dollar they spend has to bring them one step closer to an NBA title.
The Cavaliers don’t necessarily have to win a championship by the time LeBron’s option year comes up, though that certainly would improve their chances of keeping him beyond 2010. Instead, when it comes time for LeBron to either re-up or bolt for greener big-market pastures, the Cavaliers need to be one of the NBA’s elite franchises, a team on the shortest list of title contenders each year and one that LeBron is confident will one day soon bring home a championship.
So let’s see what you’ve got, Ferry and Gilbert. It’s on you now. You’ve got four years to convince LeBron that Cleveland is, in fact, where he wants to be. And not to add any unwanted pressure, but an entire city is counting on you.
To my knowledge, there aren’t any specific rules changes going into effect this offseason that will force teams into an up-tempo style of play. Here is a list of the rules changes for the 2006-07 season. Last summer (or was it the summer before?) there was an emphasis placed on reducing the amount of contact allowed when a player is driving to hole, and this allows teams like the Suns to thrive in an up-tempo system. As far as I know, the league is sticking with last year’s philosophy, so last season should be a good gauge for what Big Z can bring to the Cavs.
You probably watch more Cavs games than I do, but it’s hard to argue with Z’s contract when he’s putting up 16 points and 8 boards a game. He can also hit the mid-range jumper which gets the opposing team’s center away from the basket when LeBron is making all those drives to the hoop. Z certainly isn’t fleet of foot, but he does run pretty well for a seven-footer, even though it isn’t pretty. Besides, a team only really needs four guys to run an up-tempo offense - the center doesn’t always have to make it past half court.
Considering how much the price of big men has skyrocketed the last couple of summers (Tyson Chandler, Samuel Dalembert and Nene all have similar contracts to Ilgauskas) and that Z has three years and $32 M remaining on his contract, he’s actually a pretty good deal at that price. I’m sure that the Cavs would have some takers if they decided to move him, but I’m not sure what they could get in return. If you trade him away, you’ve lost your second or third best offensive threat and no one is going to give you a younger, more athletic center with similar offensive skills for a 31 year-old with Z’s injury history.
The most troubling thing about Ilgauskas is his performance in last year’s playoffs. He averaged 10 points and six boards in 27 minutes of playing time. He played 29 minutes a game in the regular season, so his production was down, not just his playing time. He did go up against the Defensive Player of the Year (Ben Wallace) in the semis, but he should have done more against Brendan Haywood in the first round.
I’m on the fence about Z, but big men are coveted in this league and he brings a lot to the table. There are times when he commands a double team and he’s able to pass out if better than most. If the Cavs really want to run and gun like the Suns do, the first thing they need is a quarterback like Steve Nash to run the show. LeBron can handle the ball pretty well, but he’s still better at finishing than he is at creating for others.
Actually, you’re right, I don’t think there are specific rule changes going into effect, but the league has been trying to bump up scoring by eliminating contact (hand checks, etc.), which, as you said, favors the more athletic, aggressive teams like the Suns. I think I’ve read a couple times that they’ll be even more apt to blow the whistle on contact this season.
Statistically, Z is fine and yes, he’s a very good mid-range shooter as well as an excellent free-throw shooter. But you saw how ineffective he can be during the playoffs, and when the Cavs play more athletic teams (like Washington) or a team with a dominant defensive presence down low (like Detroit), he’s a huge liability. Never mind when they face an elite offensive center — Shaq abuses Z every time they face the Heat. Add to that the fact that, the tempo ssssllloooooowwws to a crawl whenever he’s working inside and you’ve got someone who just doesn’t fit.
Z is a very good offensive center but I think he’s in the wrong system, and if you’re paying someone that much money he shouldn’t disappear in the playoffs. (BTW, he signed a five-year deal last year so doesn’t he still have four years left?) On top of all of that, Z and LeBron really don’t seem to click on the floor, and that’s a problem. I’m not saying the Cavaliers could trade him for “a younger, more athletic center with similar offensive skills,” but I would be willing to bet they could get an athletic shot blocker who could run the floor and rebound. And even if they couldn’t get that in a trade for Z, they’d free up the kind of cap space that would allow them to find that kind of player in free agency.
According to Inside Hoops’ salary info, Z has three years remaining with a team option for a fourth year.
After watching the Cavs in the playoffs, I’m not sure the team really has an offensive system in mind. They seem to start the game by dumping it into Z and then move towards a LeBron at the top of the key offense, which is effective at times and looks really bad at times. The main thing that the Cavs lack is consistent outside shooting and that’s one of the things Z brings to the table, although I don’t remember him hitting a lot of jumpers in the playoffs. If you trade him away for a shot blocker/rebounder, you’re going to the opposing team’s center sluffing off him to help on James when he goes to the hole. That’s the only downside as far as I can see.
If the Cavs want to get up and down, then Z isn’t a great fit, but you wonder why teams sign these guys to fat contracts and then want out the next summer.
“If you trade him away for a shot blocker/rebounder, you’re going to the opposing team’s center sluffing off him to help on James when he goes to the hole.”
Fair point. Since you know more about the actual game of basketball than I do, let me ask you a couple of questions, though:
1. Is it really ideal to have your center be one of the guys you’re depending on to hit big jumpers? The Cavs need shooters, absolutely, and Z’s range is certainly one of his strengths, but it seems like you’re talking about a guard or a forward more than a center.
2. Could the Cavs get by with Gooden at PF and Verajao at C, or vice versa? Small lineup, for sure, and you would have to back them up with a true center who could bang with the big boys when needed, but we’ve seen teams get by with small lineups before. Having both Gooden and Verajao in the starting lineup (assuming they re-sign Gooden) would instantly make them a more athletic team.
It’s not ideal (at all) to have your center being the guy that can hit a jumper for you, but other than Donyell Marshall (who’s actually more comfortable behind the arc) and LeBron, I can’t think of another guy on the Cavs who I’d trust taking a 15-18 foot jumper. Z knocks those down regularly, but if he’s not on the court (and that jumpshooting isn’t replaced) James will have the opposing team’s center to deal with every time he goes to the hole. That may be a problem for him or it may not - it would be interesting to see how many of James’ drives ended in points with and without Z on the court. If the Cavs aren’t looking at that information this offseason, they should be.
The team could get by with Gooden and Verajao, but they would be undersized. That’s the direction the league is heading, however, so it might not be a bad idea. If you want to go to an up-tempo game, Eric Snow is not the guy you want at the point. I swear he takes seven seconds to get the ball past half court every possession.
I’d like to know the true story behind Michael Redd’s visit to Cleveland last summer. Shortly after the Hughes signing, there were some rumors swirling that the Cavs had already decided on Hughes (whom they quickly signed after Redd’s visit and his subsequent re-upping with the Bucks). If the Cavs really chose Hughes over Redd, I’d like to know 1) what were they thinking? and 2) how much are they regretting that move right now?
Despite the success of Phoenix and Dallas, we haven’t seen an up-tempo team win a title in a very long time. It’s certainly more fun to watch the Suns or Mavs instead of the Spurs or Heat, but until one of those types of teams breaks through, big guys will still be coveted. Regarding Z, it all depends on who they can get for him…he’s not a guy that they should dump just to dump.
“It’s not ideal (at all) to have your center being the guy that can hit a jumper for you”
And that’s my point — the Cavs’ situation with Z as the starting center making upwards of $10 mil a year is anything but ideal. The Cavaliers wouldn’t dump him just to dump him, as you suggested, and for all I know they’re happy with him. Hell, maybe they don’t want to pick up the tempo, maybe they’re happy with how things are and they plan on improving not by subtracting players but by adding shooters.
But to me, the Cavs are out of synch more often than not when Z is in there. He’s terrible at defending the pick-and-roll (although Mike Brown helped him improve in that area), he’s not a great shot blocker or rebounder, and he’s soft and slow. Seems like they’re overpaying for points and getting stiffed on everything else, especially since there appears to be little to no chemistry between LBJ and Z.
The worst part about it all is, Z’s contract is preventing the Cavs from making any significant free agent moves to help the team. Granted, there weren’t all that many quality FA’s out there this season but even if there were, they were stuck. And ironically, Z’s contract runs out (ignoring the team option) a year before LeBron’s walk year. If LBJ leaves, I’d hate for the reason to be Zydrunas Ilgauskas.
But if he’s the guy that can hit a jumper, then he’s the guy that can hit a jumper. The Cavs don’t have a lot of guys like that, so unless they have a plan to replace that shooting, they need to hold onto Z. That’s what he brings - space in the court for LeBron to work, along with a pretty good back to the basket game.
My guess is that LeBron had some say in whether or not the team re-signed Z last summer, and if he objected, Z would be playing somewhere else right now.
By the way, I’d like to see LeBron develop a post up game like Jordan did early in his career. I think he would be devastating down on the block, and it would make Z’s presence less necessary.