Day: June 27, 2006

      Who’s going where?

      June 27, 2006 /

      No, there aren’t any LeBron’s by any stretch of the imagination. The 2006 NBA Draft does not seem to have a consensus #1 overall pick and offers many more uncertainties than sure things. The current draft class is a lot less top heavy than it has been in the recent past and franchise players may be few and far between. This is the first year with the new drafting rule of eliminating high schoolers from the mix. The 2006 draft is more balanced in terms of talent. Therefore, as FoxSports.com’s Jeff Goodman writes, Wednesday night’s draft will offer it’s fair share of mystery and nobody really knows who is going where and when.

      “I wouldn’t characterize it as weak, but more balanced,” said longtime agent Bill Duffy, whose client list includes Steve Nash, Carmelo Anthony and Yao Ming. “It’s not top heavy. There’s no LeBron or Greg Oden. Many teams feel that there’s so much parity from one to five and that having the first pick in a draft like this is a curse.”

      “This is the most uncertain draft I’ve ever seen,” added Duffy, who represents point guards Marcus Williams and Rajon Rondo in this year’s draft. “I don’t recall a guy being mentioned going anywhere from one to five. It’s usually pretty clear at the top.”

      The consensus is that Bargnani, Aldridge, Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Rudy Gay and Brandon Roy are the top half-dozen players in the draft. However, no one has any idea — including NBA teams — if those will be the top six that come off the board on Wednesday night.

      Unlike in the NFL, you can’t always get a franchise player in the first round of the NBA Draft. Most of it is so hit and miss anyway that you rarely know exactly what you’re getting. However, this year’s draft does pose some intriguing elements. Because of the deep and balanced pool of talent, it’s possible for a player projected in the mid first round to slip to the second, or even vice versa. The unpredictability in itself will make this year’s draft all that more interesting and exciting.

      NBA, NBA Draft

      Dolan sounds off

      June 27, 2006 /

      Knicks owner James Dolan put all the pressure on GM/head coach Isiah Thomas going into next season:

      “This is his team,” Dolan said. “He made this bed. There is nobody better than him to make this thing go forward but he has to do that. And he has one year, one season to do that. At this time next year Isiah will be with us if we can all sit here and say this team has made significant progress toward its goal of eventually becoming an NBA championship team. If we can’t say that, then Isiah will not be here.”

      Larry Brown has $40 remaining on his contract – that type of money will create some drama. Dolan accused Larry Brown of sabotaging his own career:

      According to Dolan, Brown informed the Knicks’ front office last week that the roster needed a major overhaul. Brown startled the organization in Thursday’s meeting by suggesting that Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis and Jerome James and three other players should be cut. The Knicks contend that releasing the six players mentioned by Brown would have cost the club $180 million, leading Dolan to surmise that Brown was angling to be fired.

      “Larry never intended to coach this team beyond this season,” Dolan said.

      Brown responded:

      “It makes me sick to my stomach that anyone would think it wasn’t my intent to see it through,” Brown said. “It was my goal to help rebuild the team for the long run. I bought a house here. I enrolled my kids in school. Why would I want to leave with 23 wins on my record and go out that way after a 34-year career?”

      The Knicks and their fans need all of this mudslinging to stop. They need their management to get down to the business of building a better franchise. Isiah Thomas has created a team that no one thinks can play together. If he gets anything out of them at all, it will be a surprise. It looks like Thomas’ moves are wearing on his owner as well, so this should be a very interesting season in New York.

      NBA

      Second to none: The best second-round picks in NBA history

      June 27, 2006 /

      Think you can fall asleep once the first round of the NBA Draft is over? Think again. It seems like every year, a player or two from the second round emerges into a solid NBA contributor, eventually developing into an All-Star caliber player. Here is a list of the Top 10 second round picks from the last 20 years. The criteria are simple: how good was the player or how good does the player project to be once his career is over? I also took into account whatever accolades the player won, be they All-Star appearances, All-NBA teams, even All-Defensive or Sixth Man awards. Special consideration was given to those players who were key players on championship squads. After all, that’s what it’s all about.

      But first, a few Honorable Mentions:

      Younger players who still could make the list: Mehmet Okur, Bobby Simmons, Carlos Boozer, Cuttino Mobley, Stephen Jackson, Ryan Gomes, Anderson Varejao, Zaza Pachulia, Maurice Williams, Earl Watson, Steve Blake, Chris Duhon

      Older/Retired players who had solid NBA careers: Cliff Robinson, Cedric Ceballos, P.J. Brown, Antonio Davis, Steve Kerr, Vernon Maxwell

      10. Rashard Lewis, 1998, drafted #32 (Seattle)
      Career Averages: 16.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 2.3 apg, .461 FG%
      Lewis was drafted by the Sonics out of high school and quickly became one of the team’s best players, averaging 14 points or more each of the last six seasons and 20 points or more the last two years. In the 1998 draft, his hometown team (the Houston Rockets) passed on him three times, selecting instead Michael Dickerson, Bryce Drew and Mirsad Turckan. Ouch. In 2005, Lewis was named to his first All-Star Game. He is still just 27, so he could move up the list (or fall off) before his career is done.
      Bonus points for…having a great three-point shot (38.6%) for a 6-10 player.
      Negative points for…despite being 6-10, he doesn’t rebound very well, he has a questionable post up game and takes almost 30% of his shots from long range. Go inside, young man!

      9. Nick Van Exel, 1993, #37 (L.A. Lakers)
      Career Averages: 14.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 6.6 apg, .405 FG%
      Along with Eddie Jones, Van Exel was the main reason for the Lakers’ resurgence in the post-Showtime era. Though his career shooting percentage is low, he was known as a clutch shooter, hitting numerous game-winning shots in his career, including the shot that gave the Lakers the win in their last appearance in the fabled Boston Garden. He was an All-Star in 1998 and was in the top 10 in assists five times in his career.
      Bonus points for…standing off the free throw line when shooting foul shots.
      Negative points for…that less-than-stellar shooting percentage.

      Read the rest of the article at Bullz-Eye.

      NBA, NBA Draft

      Offseason Blueprint: Miami Heat

      June 27, 2006 /

      Cap Situation

      Pat Riley took a lot of grief for his roster moves in the offseason, but everything worked out in the end, as he and his band of mercenaries won Miami’s first NBA title. Considering they won a ring, I doubt the team will make major changes in the offseason, and with a payroll of over $62 M, they don’t have a ton of options.

      Shaquille O’Neal’s contract runs another four years at $20 M per season. Shaq battled some injuries this season, but still put forth the league’s 11th best EPM (.678), third best amongst centers. Time has taken its toll on O’Neal; he averaged career lows in points (20.0) and rebounds (9.2). But his 60% FG shooting was tremendous, and as long as he’s playing, he affects the game like no other player in the league, making him well worth the price.

      Dwayne Wade is entering the final year of his rookie contract at the unbelievably low price of $3.8 M. For a guy with an EPM of .698 – #6 in the league – this is a tremendous value. While rumors flew during the playoffs that he may keep his options open, you can expect Miami to try to sign him to a max extension this summer. After winning a title this season, I bet he’ll sign a deal that will keep him Miami for the next seven seasons.

      Jason Williams’ contract runs two more seasons for more than $17 M. Williams only played 59 games this season and will have offseason knee surgery; he needs to return a more productive player (EPM=.406) in order to earn that big contract.

      Antoine Walker’s deal lasts three more years at a total cost of almost $26 M. His EPM (.435) is average, so I’m sure the team would like to see him contribute a little more when he’s on the court. Still, Walker gave the Heat a valuable third scoring option to take some of the pressure off of O’Neal and Wade.

      Udonis Haslem has four years remaining on his contract, which has a total price of more than $24 M. Haslem is a pretty good deal for the Heat, providing an above average EPM (.458) for a reasonable price. Plus, he pretty much earned his entire contract with his gritty defense on Dirk Nowitzki during the Finals.

      Offseason Blueprint

      The team should try to convince Alonzo Mourning to return for another season or two. Zo’s EPM (.590) was the 20th best in the league, 5th best amongst centers, giving the Heat a reliable backup to Shaq. Mourning may want a raise from the $1.1 M he made last season, and the Heat should consider it. It will be interesting to see what motivates Mourning now that he’s won a ring – will it be money or more titles? Only time will tell.

      Gary Payton is also a free agent, but he should probably go ahead and retire. He’s a shell of the player he once was, but his legacy is in tact, as he made his mark with two huge shots in the Finals. He made an impact and won a ring – that should probably be enough. But Payton has indicated that he wants to play another season and will be content if the team brings in another point guard for him to help to develop.

      With Wade, Walker, Haslem and Shaq, the team’s biggest need is at point guard. There are a couple of quality point guards – Speedy Claxton and Marcus Banks – that could be had for the mid-level exception. I think either guy would be an upgrade over Jason Williams.

      Miami’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

      Player EPM League Rank
      Dwyane Wade 0.698 # 6
      Shaquille O’Neal 0.678 # 11
      Alonzo Mourning 0.590 # 20
      Udonis Haslem 0.458 # 112
      Antoine Walker 0.435 # 135
      Jason Williams 0.406 # 172
      Michael Doleac 0.369 # 238
      James Posey 0.344 # 273
      Derek Anderson 0.339 # 276
      Gary Payton 0.326 # 285
      Jason Kapono 0.303 # 300
      Shandon Anderson 0.248 # 338

      The team doesn’t have a pick in the first round of the draft, so if they want an impact player they’ll have to find one with the mid-level or via a trade. I doubt Riley will mess with the chemistry that won the franchise its first NBA title, but you never know. I’d go grab Banks or Claxton and re-sign Mourning (and James Posey, if he doesn’t exercise his player option), but other than that, I’d stand pat.

      NBA

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