Cap Situation
Counting Tayshaun Prince’s 5-year/$48 M contract extension, the Pistons are on the books for almost $48 M next season, giving the team a bit of cap space to re-sign free agent Ben Wallace to a new contract this summer.
Prince’s EPM (.379) isn’t overly impressive, but he is the team’s best perimeter defender and it wasn’t until the playoffs that he was asked to do much offensively. He’s still one of the best small forwards in the league and the team has him locked up at a reasonable price for the next half-decade. Last season, most of his stats went down from the previous season, which is a bit worrisome. I’m sure the team is hoping that he hasn’t topped-out this early in his career.
Chauncey Billups was in the MVP discussion this year, and with just one year remaining at the bargain basement price of $6.4 M, he’ll be looking for a big raise next summer. He’s the team’s most efficient player (EPM=.585, #4 amongst point guards), and runs the show when he’s in the game.
Rip Hamilton’s contract has four years remaining at a total price of almost $41 M. His EPM (.466) isn’t overly impressive, but he’s asked to score and that’s what he does, upping his average to 20.1 points this season. He’s a great shooter (49%) and did a terrific job of increasing his 3PT accuracy from 31% to 46% last season. He’s also an underrated defender and one of the league’s best-conditioned players.
I’ve never been a big fan of Rasheed Wallace, but I was impressed by his game early in his career. During his years in Portland, he regularly shot over 50% from the field, but since coming to Detroit, he hasn’t been able to top 44%. He spends far too much time behind the arc, and while he’s a capable 3PT shooter, he should be punishing defenders with his patented fade away jumper from the left block. His EPM (.507) is decent, but is only 21st amongst power forwards, which means the $38 M he’s going to receive over the next three years is a bit steep for his production. Though he has the tendency to get caught up in the officiating, he has stayed healthy, which is more than you can say for some of the guys ahead of him (Kenyon Martin, Kurt Thomas) on the EPM list.
Then there’s Ben Wallace. He’s turning 32 this September and is rumored to be looking for a five-year contract in the neighborhood of $50-$55 M. His EPM (.526) was 10th best amongst centers, and for a defensive stopper, that’s pretty good production. They say he’s the heart and soul of the team, but do the Pistons want to mortgage their future on a guy who shoots 41% from the FT line (27% in the playoffs), making him a huge liability in crunch time?
Antonio McDyess (.491) is the team’s only quality bench player. His contract runs one more year ($5.8) but he holds an option to extend it another season. He gives the Pistons a capable scorer on the front line, but like the two Wallaces, he’s getting a little long in the tooth as well.
Offseason Blueprint
Detroit’s short-term future depends on what they do with Ben Wallace. For most of the season, it seemed like a sure thing that he would re-sign for an affordable price, but after the Pistons flamed out against the Miami Heat in the playoffs, the rumors started swirling that he was planning to test the free agent market. There are a number of teams that could use a good defensive center so his services will be in demand. Though I don’t know that it makes good fiscal sense to re-sign a 32 year-old to a four- or five-year contract, especially when he’s got to sit on the bench in crunch time due to his piss-poor foul shooting. Now would be a nice time to insert Darko Milicic into the lineup and see what he can do, but understandably, the team’s focus has been to keep their five starters together and the Milicic trade gave Detroit the necessary flexibility to re-sign Wallace without going into salary cap hell.
Detroit doesn’t have a first round pick in this year’s draft, so any changes before next season will have to made via trades or the use of their mid-level exception. They don’t have a bench to speak of, so guys like Speedy Claxton and Marcus Banks jump out as nice players at the guard position, which is their area of biggest immediate need. They could also forego re-signing Wallace, and choose to acquire a younger big man via a sign-and-trade.
The Pistons are still one of the very best teams in the league, but their lackadaisical, “cooler-than-thou” attitude got them into trouble in the playoffs. They didn’t play with the same hunger or determination that we’ve seen from them in years past, and they were bounced from the playoffs as a result. Along with some guard depth, their biggest need is an attitude adjustment, and they’ll be right back in the mix.
Notes:
Detroit’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Chauncey Billups 0.585 # 22
Ben Wallace 0.526 # 51
Rasheed Wallace 0.507 # 66
Antonio Mcdyess 0.491 # 79
Richard Hamilton 0.466 # 104
Tony Delk 0.435 # 134
Maurice Evans 0.389 # 199
Tayshaun Prince 0.379 # 219
Lindsey Hunter 0.348 # 265
Kelvin Cato 0.344 # 272
Carlos Delfino 0.338 # 277
The window is slowly closing on Detroit’s dynasty hopes. The team can keep this group together for a while longer, but if they don’t improve their bench and their attitude, there won’t be any more titles in the Motor City for some time.
