Day: June 22, 2006

Wade the “Next Jordan”? Not so fast.

I left Dwayne Wade out of The “Next Jordan” article I wrote for Bullz-Eye, mostly because I viewed him as a combo guard who plays a lot of point, while the rest of the guys on the list were swingmen. Also, there wasn’t a lot of “Next Jordan” discussion about Wade when he entered the draft – all of that talk revolved around a high school kid out of Ohio. But, this week, while LeBron James looked on from his living room, Wade was carrying the Heat to their first NBA title.

Wade had a phenomenal playoff run, averaging 28.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.7 assists, while shooting a stellar 50% from the field. He stepped up his game in the Finals, averaging 34.7 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.8 assists in the six games. But when you take away the first two games of the series, when Wade was still getting over the flu, he averaged 39.3 points in the last four games – all victories.

Those are certainly Jordan-esque numbers, but everyone should stop making the comparison. First of all, Wade is just a baby in terms of his career. Let’s see how he sustains this play and how he adjusts to the different defenses he’s going to see in the future, not to mention the eventual loss of Shaquille O’Neal as a running mate.

There’s no arguing that Wade was the star of the series, but I’m going to remember just three things from this year’s Finals: Wade’s great play, Dallas’ meltdown and, most importantly, two blown calls in the waning moments of Games 5 and 6 that basically handed the Heat the championship.

Scratch that, I’m going to remember something else as well – how about all of those double-teams that the Mavs threw at Shaq? With Dallas scrambling on defense, those double-teams certainly opened things up for the rest of the Heat, including Wade. My memory is a little hazy, but I don’t remember anyone double-teaming any Chicago players not wearing #23 during the Bulls’ two championship runs.

In general, I like Wade’s game, but he definitely benefited from the generosity of the officials in the last four games of the series, where he shot 73 free throws. In fact, he got more calls in these playoffs than Jordan did during his playoff career – 30.9% of Wade’s points this postseason came from the free throw line. During Jordan’s 13-year postseason career, just 24.4% of his points came from the charity stripe.

But here’s an eerie stat: in Jordan’s 5th playoffs, he scored 183 of his 591 points from the free throw line, which averages out to 30.9%, the only time Jordan scored more than 30% of his points at the free throw line.

So, for now, let’s table this “Next Jordan” talk. If you want something to argue about, who would you take right now – Wade or LeBron? And who will end up with more championships?

Offseason Blueprint: San Antonio Spurs

Cap Situation

After the trade that sent Rasho Nesterovic to Toronto (for the expiring contracts of Eric Williams and Matt Bonner), the Spurs are still on the books for almost $60 M next season. But with the trade, the team created some cap relief next summer, when they’ll only be committed to about $53 M in payroll for the 2007-08 season.

The Spurs are in great shape going forward. Injuries to Tim Duncan this season made him seem older than he is (30) and he proved in the playoffs (26 points, 11 rebounds, 57% shooting) that he’s still one of the best players in the world. He had the league’s 12th best EPM (.661) and with four years and $79 M remaining on his contract, he’ll be a Spur for the foreseeable future.

Tony Parker is the team’s second-highest player, and with five years and almost $58 M remaining on his contract, he is a very good value at point guard. This season, he shot an amazing 55% from the field en route to 19 points per game. You’d like to see more than six assists per game, but his EPM (.534) was 7th best at his position.

Manu Ginobili missed 17 games due to injury, and was hobbled in most of the games he did play. Still, his EPM (.555) was 5th amongst shooting guards, so when he’s on the court, he’s extremely valuable. He is signed for four more years at the tune of $38 M, so the Spurs have their best three players signed thru the 2009-10 season. When all three are healthy, the Spurs are the team to beat.

Bruce Bowen is the team’s best perimeter defender and with two years and almost $8 M remaining on his contract, he’s a pretty good deal. His EPM (.280) isn’t impressive, but defensive stoppers don’t get any credit in that statistic.

The team has Michael Finley signed for two more seasons at a total of $6 M, so the Spurs have all kinds of value on their roster. That’s what happens when guys want to play for you because they know they’ll have a shot at a ring. In fact, the team’s only suspect deal is the two years and $11 M remaining on Brent Barry’s contract. That’s too much to be spending on a guy who only plays 17 minutes a game and isn’t all that effective (.412) when he does play.

Offseason Blueprint

Now that Nesterovic is gone, the chances of the team re-signing free agent Nazr Mohammed have increased. Mohammed was effective (EPM=.513) when he played, but at an average of only 17 minutes, it doesn’t seem like the team is committed to him. The Spurs need someone to play 20 minutes at center alongside Duncan, and they are running out of big bodies. It seems like the team was ready to let Mohammed go, but with the Nesterovic trade, it’s not a done deal.

The Spurs are only getting older. Finley, Robert Horry and Barry are well past their primes. The team needs some young blood to compliment their stars, giving them energy off the bench. If they can’t acquire anyone like that via trades, they could use their mid-level money on a reasonably priced free agent. Jared Jeffries would go a long way to replacing Robert Horry’s length, while John Salmons would provide the energy that Finley is losing. Melvin Ely is a big player who could play alongside Duncan. All three are restricted, so it may be difficult to pry these players from their respective teams.

On the unrestricted market, I think Speedy Claxton could play behind Parker and Ginobili, while Joel Przybilla would be a nice fit alongside Duncan, though he’ll probably be too expensive.

San Antonio’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Tim Duncan 0.661 # 12
Emanuel Ginobili 0.555 # 35
Tony Parker 0.534 # 44
Nazr Mohammed 0.513 # 60
Robert Horry 0.416 # 156
Beno Udrih 0.413 # 159
Brent Barry 0.412 # 160
Radoslav Nesterovic 0.386 # 210
Michael Finley 0.343 # 274
Nick Van Exel 0.315 # 295
Bruce Bowen 0.280 # 314

Unfortunately, the Spurs do not have a first round pick in the draft. San Antonio doesn’t need to do anything in free agency. Even if they stand pat, they’ll still be one of the top teams next season. But they should consider adding some athleticism to give them a better shot at getting past the Mavs in the West.

Brown out, Thomas in

The writing was on the wall. The rumors swirling about Larry Brown’s future with the Knicks turned out to be true – he was fired today.

His coaching status had been in limbo since reports surfaced in May that owner James Dolan was looking to buy out Brown’s contract. It was at about that time that Brown called himself a “dead man walking” because of the uncertainty.

Brown’s agent, Joe Glass, had said he wouldn’t accept a buyout, so the Knicks took their time with the decision. That created an awkward situation in which Brown was running the Knicks’ workouts of draft prospects without knowing what role he had within the organization. The draft is next Wednesday.

With no financial settlement reached, ESPN.com has learned that a clause in Brown’s contract designates NBA commissioner David Stern as the arbitrator of any financial dispute between the sides, meaning the final chapter of this drama has yet to play out.

According to Chris Sheridan, there was more to the Larry Brown/Isiah Thomas feud than either guy was letting on.

One of the unreported details of how the rift between Thomas and Brown grew last season was that Thomas felt he was being undermined by Brown in trade talks when the coach would call people he knew on teams the Knicks were speaking with and would propose trades of his own.

Considering all the trades that Thomas was able to complete, you can’t really blame Brown for going out on his own. After all, he’s the guy that had to coach the team. Still, as bad as Thomas is at his job, he’s still the GM and he can’t have his subordinates undercutting him in trade negotiations.

So now Thomas is going to take over head coaching duties. He wasn’t particularly good in three years with the Pacers (131-115) but he did lead Indiana to the playoffs each season. As I said in my offseason blueprint for the Knicks, Brown isn’t the right coach for the team Thomas has put together. With Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis and Jamal Crawford in the backcourt, their best chance of winning would be to run a wide-open, up-tempo offense like the Suns. But Thomas’ teams in Indiana would always slow the pace down and try to win with their defense, so I doubt we’re going to see “Phoenix East” anytime soon.

I’m not sure the Knicks could be a bigger mess than they were last season, but with Thomas making both personnel and coaching decisions, I wouldn’t be surprised if things get a lot uglier in New York before they get better.

ESPN comes out with Power Rankings

At the start of the month, FOX Sports came out with their NFL Power Rankings and featured the Seattle Seahawks first. ESPN has now joined the party and their first five teams look very familiar.

Here is a look at their Top 5:

1 (2) Seahawks 13-3-0 Super Bowl losers have struggled in recent years, but the Hawks appear equipped for another run.

2 (6) Steelers 11-5-0 Obviously the injuries to Ben Roethlisberger weren’t as serious as they could have been. But as much work as it sounded like he needed on his face, it’s not going to be an easy road back.

3 (1) Colts 14-2-0 With the versatile Edgerrin James now in the desert, Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai have big shoes to fill.

4 (3) Broncos 13-3-0 Between Jay Cutler and Javon Walker, they’ve brought in their QB-WR tandem of the future.

5 (9) Panthers 11-5-0 There’s some question about how Keyshawn Johnson and Steve Smith will get along. As much as both guys want the ball, they also want to win and the Panthers should do enough of that in ’06 to keep both WRs happy.

After the Panthers, both FOX Sports and ESPN have teams in various different spots until you get into the 20s. Three of the most notable differences are the Chargers at No. 8 with FOX and No.17 with ESPN, the Cowboys at No. 7 with ESPN and No. 14 with FOX and the Eagles at No. 9 with FOX and No. 18 with ESPN.

Both power rankings hate the 49ers, Texans and Bills, which shouldn’t be that big of a surprise. The surprise, at least to me anyway, is the way ESPN ranks the Eagles and Falcons.

Now I know that T.O. is gone and the Eagles go back to playing: ‘Who is going to catch the ball’ game, but Andy Reid always has these guys in contention when Donavon McNabb is healthy. Their defense is solid too.

Atlanta cemented up their hideous run defense with the additions of Lawyer Milloy, John Abraham and Ed Hartwell (back from injury). Their run offense led the NFL the past two years with Dunn and Vick and now that young WRs Roddy White and Michael Jenkins are gaining more experience, the Falcons should be better than the 20th ranked team.

The Ravens are better than these two teams? Their defense alone will always keep them in contention, but one has to raise a question mark with Steve McNair and the rest of their offense. McNair should make them better, but how much does he have left in the tank?

The Dolphins at No. 8? Excellent turnaround from beginning to end last year by Nick Saban’s bunch, but to have a No.8 ranking for a team that still doesn’t know if Daunte Culpepper is going to be healthy is a bit of a stretch. And if anybody thinks Joey Harrington is a good backup option, I’ll send you to Detroit for the first of your many beatings.

These power rankings do tell me one thing though: The NFL is starting to get into gear with training camps and my shorts are starting to get wet.