Day: June 21, 2006

Cap Situation

Counting Zydrunas Ilgauskas’ $9.7 M salary, the Cavs are on the books for almost $50 M next season. He is slated to make nearly $32 M over the next three seasons, with the team holding the option for a fourth season. In his 29 minutes, Big Z was the #16 most effective player, with an EPM of .620. With his history of injury, he’s a risky proposition, but considering the deals that Tyson Chandler and Samuel Dalembert signed last offseason, Ilgausakas is a good deal.

Of course, the team’s fortunes ride on the shoulders of LeBron James. James is in the final year of his contract ($5.8 M) and is eligible to sign a max extension this summer. He has said that he wants to stay in Cleveland, but until he signs – sometime between July 12th and October 31st – Cavs fans everywhere will be waiting nervously. Any team would be hard pressed to replace his EPM of .691, which was #7 in the league last season.

Larry Hughes was brought in to be James’ sidekick, but his history of injury (144 missed games in the last seven seasons) caught up with him once again. Hughes was only able to appear in 36 games this season and shot a less-than-stellar 41%, while averaging 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.6 assists. His EPM of .391 is pretty poor considering that the team is set to pay him almost $50 M over the next four years. If Hughes can’t stay healthy, he’s not going to be able to earn his contract. Given the fact that he’s missed 25% of his games the last seven years, I’m not holding my breath. The Hughes signing will either make or break this team over the next few years.

Desperate for outside shooting, the team signed Donyell Marshall (3-yrs/$17 M remaining) and Damon Jones (3-yrs/$12 M) last offseason, and neither guy lived up to his billing. Marshall shot just 40% from the field and 32% from long range, while Jones shot just 39% and 38% respectively. Marshall at least brings some rebounding (6.1 per game) but Jones brings little else.

Anderson Varejao (EPM=.483) was a nice surprise, but wasn’t given very many minutes (15.9) during the regular season. He earned more time in the postseason and performed well, although he has no low post game to speak of. However, the 23 year-old Brazilian might be the Cavs’ future at the power forward position.

Eric Snow is the team’s point guard, and with his EPM (.276) it’s clear that he doesn’t bring much to the team outside of solid defense. He’s set to make more than $20 M over the next three seasons, and I’d bet that the Cavs would love to use that money elsewhere.

Offseason Blueprint

Signing James to a max contract is obviously the team’s number one priority this offseason. After that, the Cavs need to decide if Drew Gooden is in the team’s long-term plans. Gooden averaged 10.7 points and 8.4 rebounds per game (down from 14.4 / 9.2 the year before), but the former Jayhawk played three fewer minutes and took three fewer shots per game. He shot 51% for the season and is reasonably athletic, but his numbers were down in the playoffs (8.2 points, 7.5 rebounds in 22 mpg). Signing James to an extension and re-signing Gooden will put the team over the salary cap for the foreseeable future, so the Cavs need to be sure about Gooden. He is a restricted free agent, so they do have the right to match any offer sheet he signs with another team.

Cleveland has the #25 pick and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shawne Williams out of Memphis. I’m not sure why they would take a small forward when they’ve already got the best one in the league. They’d be better served trying to find a good point guard if they can’t land one (Marcus Banks, Speedy Claxton?) with the mid-level exception.

Like many playoff teams, the Cavs can choose to go over the cap as they continue to re-sign their free agents, they can try to exchange a strength (depth at power forward) for a weakness (lack of a point guard), or they can let their free agents go and try to stay close to the cap.

Notes:

Cleveland’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Lebron James 0.691 # 7
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 0.620 # 16
Drew Gooden 0.534 # 45
Anderson Varejao 0.483 # 86
Donyell Marshall 0.422 # 150
Alan Henderson 0.404 # 173
Larry Hughes 0.391 # 197
Ronald Murray 0.299 # 305
Eric Snow 0.276 # 319
Damon Jones 0.248 # 339
Aleksandar Pavlovic 0.229 # 346

Assuming James signs the max offer, the next big decision is Drew Gooden. If he’s not in their long-term plans, the team would be wise to get some compensation for him via a sign-and-trade, ideally landing a good-shooting point guard in the process. It’s too bad that the Raptors aren’t in the market for a power forward. Mike James would be a great fit in Cleveland.

Miami 95, Dallas 92 (Heat win series, 4-2)
I’ve played basketball for more than 20 years, and one thing is certain: there is nothing more frustrating (from an opponent’s perspective) than a ref giving calls to a good player who repeatedly throws himself into a defensive player. It’s almost like the officials have an incomplete checklist. Was there contact? Check. Is the offensive player a superstar? Check. Let’s send him to the line! Only the refs are forgetting the most important question: does the offensive player create the contact? The officials gave Game 5 to the Heat when, at the end of the game, they rewarded Dwayne Wade with two free throws on a phantom foul call on Dirk Nowitzki. Fast forward to the end of Game 6, 0:26 to play, Miami leading 91-90, Wade drives the ball, throws his arm out into a retreating Nowitzki, and Wade gets the call. Sure, the Mavs had a chance to tie at the buzzer, but that foul call put Dallas in a bad, bad position.

Hell, Dallas had a ton of chances to win the game. They couldn’t hit an open three to save their lives – they went 5-22 (23%) for the game. Jason Terry had the worst second half of his life, going 1-12 (8%) from the field in the final two periods. (I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: No team should pay Jason Terry more than $8 M a season.) The entire Dallas squad was throwing up bricks, shooting a dismal 37% from the field in the game. I’ve since turned the television off, but I’m assuming Wade won MVP, and deservedly. He scored 147 points over the final four games – that’s a 36.8 point average. But it helps when you get to the line 73 times in those same four games. Let me write that again: Dwayne Wade shot 73 free throws in the final four games. For their part, Dallas certainly didn’t do anything to win the series. Their fall from a 2-0 series lead and a 13-point lead with less than seven minutes to play in Game 3, to lose the series in six games, has to go down as one of the biggest meltdowns of all time. But Miami didn’t win this series either – the refs did. So let’s give them the rings.