Cap Situation
The Grizzlies are on the books for over $56 M next season, putting them in a tough cap situation. Their highest paid player, Eddie Jones, is set to earn $15.7 in the final year of his contract. Jones’ game is tailing off and his EPM of .381 is not encouraging. Still, his expiring contract is valuable if Memphis decides to trade it away.
Pau Gasol is the team’s best player, and with his EPM of .603 (#19 in the league) he’s more than earning his big contract that will pay him more than $75 M over the next five seasons. Gasol did it all for the Grizzlies, averaging 20.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.9 blocks per game. The only alarming stat was the drop in his free throw accuracy from 77% two seasons ago to 69% last season.
Mike Miller put forth an EPM of .486 en route to being named Sixth Man of the Year. His accuracy slipped a little from the year before, but the rest of his numbers improved. At a price of almost $35 M over the next four years, he’s a good deal.
Shane Battier had a below-average EPM of .394, but most of what he does doesn’t show up in the box score. He provides steady defense while averaging 10 points, five rebounds and more than a block and a steal per game. At a cost of only $32 M over the next five years, he’s a valuable asset.
I’m sure GM Jerry West is regretting the contract he gave to Brian Cardinal, which still has 4-years/$24 M remaining on it. Cardinal’s effectiveness (.336) doesn’t justify any more minutes, so it is unlikely that he’ll ever earn his contract.
Damon Stoudamire (.375) still has three yeas and $13 M remaining on his contract. He missed most of last season with a knee injury, but appears to be on track to return next season. The Grizzlies desperately need a point guard and Stoudamire, if healthy, can help fill that role.
Jake Tsakalidis was extremely productive (.538) in the 14 minutes a game he played, and probably should receive more time next season. He has one more year ($2.9 M) remaining on his contract.
Offseason Blueprint
There is some uncertainty surrounding the Memphis ownership, and the rumor is that the team is trying to cut salary in order to make the franchise more attractive to potential suitors. For that reason, I don’t know that the team will do that much this offseason. But I’m sure that West is tired of his team’s early exits each of the last three postseasons, and will want to make a change or three.
The team’s biggest need is at point guard and Speedy Claxton is a good value at the position. He could probably be had at the mid-level exception (~$5 M), which is all the Grizzlies could offer at the moment. The team will have a lot of cap space next summer after Jones’ salary is off the books, so the team might wait a year before making a big offseason change.
The Grizzlies own the #24 pick in the draft and NBADraft.net project them to take SG Maurice Ager. Quincy Douby, Rajon Rondo and Will Blalock are point guard prospects that should be available when Memphis picks.
Memphis’ EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Pau Gasol 0.603 # 19
Jake Tsakalidis 0.538 # 41
Mike Miller 0.486 # 84
Shane Battier 0.394 # 191
Lorenzen Wright 0.393 # 192
Bobby Jackson 0.386 # 205
Eddie Jones 0.381 # 216
Damon Stoudamire 0.375 # 222
Hakim Warrick 0.367 # 241
Brian Cardinal 0.336 # 279
Chucky Atkins 0.335 # 280
Dahntay Jones 0.247 # 340
Antonio Burks 0.182 # 348
Gasol, Miller and Battier are the team’s core players. Jones’ expiring contract could bring in a talented player, but it is unclear that the franchise would want to take on any long-term contracts at this juncture. Claxton would really help at the point, but this team needs a dynamic perimeter player to take the pressure off of Gasol.
