Cap Situation
Counting the 5-year/$46 M extension that Caron Butler signed last offseason, the Wizards are on the books for around $56 M next season. Almost half of their payroll goes to two players, Antawn Jamison ($15.1 M) and Gilbert Arenas ($11.1 M). Arenas, who has the team’s best EPM (.572, #28 in the league) is signed for two more years at an average of $11.5 M per season. At that price, he’s a great deal. He’s one of the most prolific scorers in the league, upping his average for the fourth consecutive year to 29.3 ppg. With a shot-to-assist ratio of 3.5, he’s definitely a shoot-first point guard, but he still averaged a career-high six assists per game last season.
Arenas wasn’t the only player to step up his game with the departure of Larry Hughes last summer. Jamison averaged 20.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game, which were above his career averages in both categories. With an EPM of .504, he’s not quite earning his salary, but his contract isn’t outlandish by any means.
Caron Butler was brought in (via the Kwame Brown trade) to replace Hughes and he had a career year, averaging 17.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game, resulting in an EPM of .482. He’s only entering his fifth year, so he looks like he’s going to be a good deal for the duration of his contract.
The loss of Brown left a hole in the Wizards’ front line, but it was clear that he had worn out his welcome in Washington and needed a fresh start. Other than Jamison, three players got major minutes up front – Brendan Haywood (EPM=.438, $4.5 M), Jared Jeffries (.373, free agent) and Etan Thomas (.444, $5.9 M). None of these guys bring much to the table offensively, but they’re all decent defenders.
Antonio Daniels (.360, $5.4 M) is a talented combo guard who fills the backup role well. With a shot-to-assist ratio of 2.0, he’s more of a setup guy than Arenas. His three point shooting (23%) and overall shooting (42%) leave something to be desired, but the rest of his game is pretty solid.
Offseason Blueprint
Sadly, Washington doesn’t have a lot of options to improve their frontcourt. They were able to unload Brown last season and the team might try to do the same with Etan Thomas. Only he doesn’t have the kind of potential that Brown had, so the team might have a tough time finding a taker.
Since they are over the cap, they only have the mid-level exception to work with. With Arenas, Butler and Jamison hoisting most of the shots, the team could use defensive-minded players at shooting guard, power forward and center. Power forward Reggie Evans is a possibility, as is swingman John Salmons. Jared Jeffries has the option for another year, but will likely test the waters. His defense against LeBron James in the playoffs raised a few eyebrows around the league, but he wasn’t terribly efficient offensively and is not good at the free throw line.
The team has the #18 pick and NBADraft.net projects them to take Shawne Williams, who is listed as a small forward in the NBA. Considering that Jamison is a little undersized for power forward, I’m not sure why the Wizards would take another small forward when they already have Jamison and Butler on the roster. Ronnie Brewer would be a good fit if available, while Hilton Armstrong might do well up front.
Other than the mid-level exception and the draft, the Wizards don’t have the ammo to make a big improvement unless they want to trade Jamison or Butler away. Considering his production and salary, Arenas is basically untouchable at this point. Washington took Cleveland to seven games in the playoffs and the Cavs went on to take the Pistons to seven, so the Wizards aren’t that far off the elite in the East. A couple of moves to improve their defense might put them over the top.
Notes:
Washington’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Gilbert Arenas 0.572 # 28
Antawn Jamison 0.504 # 68
Caron Butler 0.482 # 87
Etan Thomas 0.444 # 127
Brendan Haywood 0.438 # 133
Jared Jeffries 0.373 # 230
Antonio Daniels 0.360 # 251
Jarvis Hayes 0.354 # 259
Michael Ruffin 0.345 # 271
Arenas, Jamison and Butler can handle most of the offensive load, but who is going to play defense on this roster? Jeffries is good, but he’s a free agent. The team needs better play out of Thomas and Haywood if they want to take it to the next level.
