Cap Situation
Utah is in good fiscal shape. Their talented front line of Andre Kirilenko (5-yrs/$75 M), Carlos Boozer (3-yrs/$34.8 M) and Mehmet Okur (3-yrs/$25 M) are all signed for the foreseeable future, yet the team is only on the books for $42 M next season, giving Utah around $10 M in cap space.
Boozer (EPM=.644, #13 in the league), Kirilenko (.568, #30) and Okur (.562, #32) are models of efficiency. Boozer’s lingering hamstring injury really put a damper on Utah’s season, but he was terrific once healthy, averaging 16 points and nine boards on 55% shooting. Kirilenko continues to fill up the stat sheet – he averaged 15 points, eight rebounds, four assists and three blocks per contest. Okur was one of the most improved players this season, averaging 18 points and nine rebounds per game. There were some trade rumors circulating around Boozer during the season, but if the team decides to keep him, they’ve got a young, talented front line for years to come.
Surely, even Jerry Sloan is regretting the team’s decision to draft Deron Williams (.365) instead of Chris Paul, no matter how much better Williams supposedly “fits the system.” If Paul were playing in Utah, the team would be a playoff staple for the next several years. Williams has another year on his contract and the team can extend it another two years at a total cost of $12.8 M.
Other than that, the team only has two players – Gordon Giricek (.264) and Kris Humphries (.363) – signed for next season, so the Jazz have some work to do this offseason.
Offseason Blueprint
The team needs to make a decision on the future of Matt Harpring. His EPM of .449 is solid for a backup player, but he was unable to play in consecutive games for most of the season due to a lingering knee injury. He’s on the wrong side of 30, so if the team is interested in re-signing him, they should avoid a long-term contract.
The team’s biggest need is at shooting guard. They could use an athletic, defensive-minded player who can penetrate to create shots for the frontline players. Surprisingly, this summer’s free agent class is thin at the position, though the Jazz could try to pry John Salmons away from Philadelphia. Salmons is a restricted free agent, but the Sixers would have a tough time matching given their fiscal situation. If Salmons were to improve his shot off the dribble, he’d be a great fit with the Jazz.
The team has the #14 pick in the draft and NBADraft.net projects them to take Ronnie Brewer out of Arkansas. Based on his profile, he’d be a good fit at shooting guard. If J.J. Redick is available at #14, he’d be another viable option, but he doesn’t have the penetration skills that Brewer has.
Utah is a young, skilled team and if they can add a couple of good players via free agency or the draft, they should be a playoff team for years to come. Unfortunately, Utah is at the top of the list of places where players don’t want to play, so they might have a tough time this offseason.
Notes:
Utah’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Carlos Boozer 0.644 # 13
Andrei Kirilenko 0.568 # 30
Mehmet Okur 0.562 # 32
Greg Ostertag 0.455 # 116
Matt Harpring 0.449 # 122
Jarron Collins 0.366 # 242
Deron Williams 0.365 # 245
Kris Humphries 0.363 # 247
Milt Palacio 0.315 # 296
Devin Brown 0.296 # 307
Keith Mcleod 0.266 # 327
Gordan Giricek 0.264 # 329
Three players in the Top 32 – wow. The Jazz need a shooting guard that will compliment Williams and that great front line, while also finding a few good players to come off the bench. If everyone can stay healthy, the Jazz will be a force to be reckoned with.
