Boy, does this kid have a rough first few days in the major leagues ahead of him: with their first pick in the draft, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays have selected third baseman…
Insert Wisteria Lane joke here.
Day: June 6, 2006
Cap Situation
With the salaries of Anfernee Hardaway ($15.8 M) and Doug Christie ($8.2 M) coming off the books, the Orlando Magic have committed to a payroll of $51.4 M next season, giving the team precious little cap space this summer. However, Grant Hill’s $16.9 M contract expires next summer, putting the team in a great position for what could be a very good free agent class. Throw in the team’s 16-6 record over the last month and a half of the season, and there is reason for optimism in Orlando.
The team’s best player, Dwight Howard, will be under his rookie contract for two more seasons at the total price of $10.8 M. Considering that – in just his second season – he was the league’s 24th most efficient player (EPM=.578), he is an incredible bargain.
During the same draft, the Magic acquired point guard Jameer Nelson (.508) from the Denver Nuggets for a future first round draft pick. With the mid-season departure of Steve Francis, Nelson really shined, averaging 16 points and six assists after the All-Star break. Before the draft, there were questions about his lack of size (6’0”), but Nelson makes up for it with good quickness and terrific shooting; Nelson shot 48% from the field and 42% from long range last season.
The team also traded for Darko Milicic, who had taken up permanent residence in the Detroit Pistons’ doghouse. After the trade, Milicic wasn’t spectacular, but he did show flashes of the talent that made him the #2 overall pick in 2003 draft (ahead of Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade). He averaged eight points, four rebounds and two blocks in just 21 minutes per game for the Magic, resulting in an encouraging EPM of .470. Milicic’s salary of $5.2 M next season allows the team to determine if he’s in their long term plans. He’s got a face up game that compliments Howard’s low post game, so the two could be effective frontcourt running mates for years to come.
Hedo Turkoglu has developed into a nice small forward, averaging 15 points, four rebounds and three assists, resulting in a solid EPM of .444. At 27, he provided veteran leadership for the young Magic, and although he’s a capable starter, he’s probably best suited for sixth man duties.
Offseason Blueprint
Unless the team wants to unload Hill’s expiring contract along with a draft pick for a high-priced player (Paul Pierce would be a good fit, but Boston seems committed to building around him), Orlando’s best bet would be to stand pat this offseason and wait until next summer to make a splash in free agency, when they might be able to convince a superstar to change teams.
The team has the #11 pick and their biggest hole is at shooting guard, where DeShawn Stevenson wasn’t terribly effective (.290) in his 32 minutes per game. NBADraft.net predicts they’ll take Bradley center Patrick O’Bryant. This pick makes sense if the team has already given up on Milicic, but I don’t think that’s the case. JJ Redick and Ronnie Brewer (along with Rodney Carney, if he slips) make more sense. Redick would bring terrific shooting that would open the court up for Howard, while Brewer is a better defender who can slash to create shots for teammates.
The team has already capitalized on the pre-draft bad rap given to a four-year college starter (Nelson) and I think Redick might be another great fit. If they can add Pierce (or another star small forward) next summer, this would be a team to be reckoned with.
Notes:
Orlando’s EPM by player (league average = .445)
Player EPM League Rank
Dwight Howard 0.578 # 24
Jameer Nelson 0.508 # 64
Grant Hill 0.479 # 93
Darko Milicic 0.470 # 100
Hedo Turkoglu 0.444 # 126
Carlos Arroyo 0.443 # 128
Bo Outlaw 0.411 # 165
Tony Battie 0.391 # 198
Trevor Ariza 0.365 # 244
Keyon Dooling 0.335 # 281
Travis Diener 0.324 # 288
Deshawn Stevenson 0.290 # 309
Pat Garrity 0.279 # 316
Stacey Augmon 0.249 # 337
Howard, Nelson, Milicic and Turkoglu give the team a great young core to build around. Arroyo, who was thrown in the Milicic trade, is a top backup point guard and gives the team some punch coming off the bench.
On yesterday’s Daily Dime, ESPN analysts Dr. Jack Ramsay and Chris Ramsay each made an argument for a different team to win the NBA Finals. Here’s the best bit from Chris Ramsay about the Heat:
Shaq dominates the middle. The guy is still more powerful than a locomotive and, having dropped 20-or-so pounds, even looks light on his feet. He’s figured out how to avoid offensive fouls on his post moves. He’s making the smart, patient play on the block — posting, passing, reposting, scoring. He’s getting deep position and making a much more upward offensive move to the basket instead of the inward offensive move that was getting him in trouble earlier in the playoffs. On defense, he shuts down the driveway. There will be no easy stuff at the rim for the Mavs.
Coach Pat Riley has really pulled this team together. I’m sure Shaq has had a big influence here, too. But ever since Miami’s meltdown in Game 4 of the Bulls series, the Heat have looked like a very cohesive unit. Since then, they’ve won 10-of-13 games, and Riley has done an excellent job of building team unity. There have been no knucklehead antics, no bickering and no selfishness. The Heat look very professional and focused on winning a championship.
I picked the Mavs in seven, so these two points are worrisome. I know Dwayne Wade is going to play pretty well, but O’Neal’s effectiveness is a bit more up in the air. Will he dominate? Will he be average? Or will he spend the majority of the series on the bench in foul trouble? His overall performance will likely decide the series. His second point is also valid. With the scent of a title so strong, the Heat are playing as a team, something I wasn’t sure could happen when Pat Riley brought Jason Williams, Antoine Walker and Gary Payton to the team. Can they keep it together for another series – one that will be more pressure-packed than the first three combined?
Likewise, Dr. Jack Ramsay made some good points about the advantages that the Mavs hold:
The Mavs’ trademarks are depth and quickness, two traits the Heat lack. The Mavs’ starting lineup is quicker than Miami’s, and they can bring in a number of talented, athletic players off the bench.
For Dallas, it starts with Dirk Nowitzki, who will be a very tough cover for the Heat. Udonis Haslem will probably need help covering Nowitzki, which will open up the court for the rest of Mavericks. As Chicago showed, a quick, penetrating team can get to the rim and create foul trouble for Shaq. Well, the Mavs are even more talented than the Bulls.
Likewise, the Heat have no natural matchup for Dallas’ secondary offensive stars, Jason Terry and Jerry Stackhouse. And that’s before you get to Devin Harris and Keith Van Horn, who also will be a handful against the larger, slower Heat.
With this kind of team speed, the Mavs at times will threaten to run the Heat right off the floor.
As I said in my preview, if the Mavs are able to consistently get the Heat into an up-and-down game, they’ll ultimately wear the Heat down. That might be the best defense for Shaq – when the big fella gets tired, he’s more foul-prone. The performance of the Mavs’ bench is also crucial. Guys like Devin Harris, Jerry Stackhouse and Keith Van Horn need to score well in order to counteract the advantage that the Heat has with Wade and O’Neal.
So there you have it – four keys to the series:
1. Shaq’s play inside
2. Miami’s cohesion under pressure
3. Dallas pushing the tempo
4. The Mavs’ bench play
It should be a good one.
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