Cap Situation
While a vast majority of NBA teams hover at or above the salary cap ($49.5 M), the Charlotte Bobcats are the model of efficiency with a payroll of $33.3 M last season and are only on the books for $23.7 M in 2006-07, giving them around $30 M in cap space this summer.
Gerald Wallace is a huge bargain in his current contract (2-yrs/$11.5 M) and, at .584, he has the 23rd highest efficiency per minute (EPM) in the league. To put things in perspective, only Dwayne Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh, Alonzo Mourning and Chris Paul have better EPMs for the money, and they’re all either still playing for their rookie contracts or, in the case of Mourning, taking the minimum to try to win a ring. Wallace is also the only player other than David Robinson and Hakeem Olajuwon to average two or more steals and two or more blocks per game for a season. That’s pretty impressive.
Emeka Okafor missed all but 26 games with a severely sprained ankle, making this season a complete disappointment for the former #2 pick. In the games that he did play, his EPM was .488, good for #82 in the league. The Bobcats desperately need him to come back at full strength as he’s shown that he’s a 14/10 guy when healthy.
Brevin Knight is another bargain, with an EPM of .500 at a very reasonable price (2-yrs/$8.6 M). Ray Felton, Charlotte’s first round draft pick last year, came on after the All-Star break, averaging 17 points and eight assists per game. He needs to improve his shooting (39%) if he wants to be a star. Hopefully, he’s locked in a gym somewhere in North Carolina with a shooting coach as I type this.
Offseason Blueprint
The team is set at point guard, small forward and Okafor can play either power forward or center. Their biggest need is at shooting guard and they could use an upgrade at either power forward or center. There aren’t very many big names in free agency at those positions, but one player that would help this team is Jason Terry. He’s a little small for a shooting guard (6’2”), but he can really fill it, making up for the inaccuracy of Knight and Felton. And he’s only 28, so he still has a few good years left in him. The other option is Nene, if the club doesn’t see Primoz Brezec as a long-term solution at center. Nene has all kinds of potential, but has been injured the past two seasons and his future is somewhat cloudy.
If they can get Terry for a reasonable price – say $32 M over four years – it would be worth it. Otherwise, they should stand pat and wait for the summer of ’07 when there are a number of stars that could potentially hit the market. With all of the supporting players in Charlotte, it would be a perfect place for a star to land, immediately upgrading the Bobcats to a playoff-caliber team.
The Bobcats have the #3 pick and they can go several different directions with the selection. LaMarcus Aldridge or Tyrus Thomas would look good alongside Okafor, if they don’t mind running one of those three at center. With Wallace on the roster, I wouldn’t take small forwards Adam Morrison or Rudy Gay, who each have holes (defensive speed and heart, respectively) in their game. I’d take a hard look at Washington’s Brandon Roy, who at 6’5” would probably be a great fit as the team’s starting shooting guard. If the team doesn’t love Roy, Andrea Bargnani is being hyped as the “next Dirk Nowitzki” – which he’ll no doubt fail to be – but he might be a nice frontline prospect for the franchise.
The club does need to make a decision on Melvin Ely, who had an EPM of .454, which was good for #117 in the league. He’s a capable frontline backup and is probably worth $4-$5 M a year. If the team decides to draft Roy, Morrison or Gay, it would be a good idea to sign Ely as well to bolster the frontcourt. If they draft Aldridge or Thomas, signing Ely becomes less of an issue. They also need to consider that Sean May only played 23 games, but was fairly effective (.501) in those minutes.
The Bobcats should simply stay the course. They will have the opportunity next summer to show their fans that they are committed to building a winner by re-signing Wallace and signing a star in free agency. Their draft picks (Okafor, Felton) have turned out pretty well, so they just need another solid pick and they’ll be poised for a big improvement in the 2007-08 season.
Notes:
EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) – ((Field Goals Att. – Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. – Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))
348 players averaged greater than 10 minutes/game AND played 20 games or more.
EFF/Min = Total Efficiency/Minutes Played = EPM
Charlotte’s Leaders in EFF/Min (league average = .441)
Player EPM Rank ’06-’07 Salary ($M)
Gerald Wallace 0.584 # 23 5.3
Sean May 0.501 # 71 1.7
Brevin Knight 0.500 # 72 5.0
Emeka Okafor 0.488 # 82 4.3
Primoz Brezec 0.457 # 114 2.7
Melvin Ely 0.454 # 117 3.3
Jake Voskuhl 0.418 # 154 0.0
Raymond Felton 0.411 # 163 3.1
With six players in the top 120, along with Felton, there is reason for optimism in Charlotte. This team just needs another good draft pick and a big free agent to contend for the playoffs in 2007-08.
