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Bonds’ place in history is secure

Posted on Wednesday 31 May 2006

I, for one, am enjoying the Barry Bonds situation. Hell, I’m lovin’ it. I can’t stand the player, but I love the situation he’s put himself in. Remember the saying, “You reap what you sow”? Well, Barry’s reaping a whole lot of emotions these days, and none of them good: anger, resentment, indifference and hostility are just a few that top the list.

Bonds passed Babe Ruth this week with his 715th career home run…and nobody cared. C’mon, that’s friggin’ beautiful. Bonds cheated the game and cheated its fans, and now that he’s been exposed, the baseball world has discarded him like an old battery that’s run out of juice.

And yes, that pun was most certainly intended. Think it’s a coincidence that Bonds’ numbers have turned south since baseball started testing for steroids? Look at Big Bad Barry’s stat line this year: .254, 7 HR, 20 RBI through 43 games. Premier sluggers like Ty Wigginton, Bill Hall, Brandon Inge, Lyle Overbay and Marcus Thames have more homers. Nick Swisher (16) is lapping Bonds. Albert Pujols (25) has nearly four times as many bombs. It’s always painful to watch all-time greats like Rickey Henderson or Jerry Rice hang around for too long, trying to prove that they’ve still got it when they obviously lost it several years earlier. Not so with Bonds. I enjoy watching his legacy swirl the drain as he hangs on to inflate numbers that most people have since dismissed. Nobody needs to place an asterisk next to his numbers; most fans have already done that anyway.

Some people like to defend Bonds by saying, “The man made a mistake. Haven’t you ever made a mistake before?” Barry himself said something similar to reporters last year: “When your closet’s clean, then come clean somebody else’s, but clean yours first.” Then there are people like ESPN’s Gary Gillette, who recently defended Bonds by writing:

The outcry against Bonds and his records should seem just plain silly when viewed in the context of baseball history. Bonds’ “record” is no more “tainted” than many — if not most — of the great records in baseball history. And while Bonds enjoyed several significant advantages on the way to 715, so did every other great home run hitter.

Babe Ruth had the incalculable advantage of playing his whole career during a segregated era, when he and every other white hitter didn’t have to face great black pitchers such as Smokey Joe Williams, Bullet Joe Rogan and Satchel Paige. Nor have their batting statistics compared to legendary blackball sluggers such as Josh Gibson, who many feel might have broken Ruth’s single-season home run record. Ruth also enjoyed playing all of his games during the daytime while having to travel no further west than St. Louis and no further south than Washington, D.C. Furthermore, Ruth didn’t have to face the fresh arms and blazing fastballs of the great relief pitchers who would intimidate so many hitters decades later.

Hank Aaron benefited from hitting in the many cozy neighborhood ballparks still in use in the 1950s and 1960s, just like contemporary sluggers have benefited from playing in the retro ballparks. Though Aaron’s home parks in Milwaukee and Atlanta were not neighborhood parks, he did play in Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium when it was known as the “Launching Pad,” giving him an overall home-park advantage for his career. Aaron took advantage of the newly implemented designated hitter rule at the end of his career, adding 22 home runs to the lead he had over Ruth.

What Gillette and other Bonds apologists who throw out this weak comparison don’t seem to understand is, while Ruth, Aaron and many other players scattered throughout baseball’s record books had certain advantages (the “dead ball era,” lower pitchers mounds, higher mounds, etc.), those players didn’t cause those changes for their own personal benefit and selfish intentions. Sure, they took advantage of their circumstances, but Babe Ruth didn’t keep Satchel Paige and Josh Gibson in the Negro Leagues, and I’m pretty sure Hank Aaron didn’t design and build Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium, nor did he institute the DH rule in 1973.

Bonds, on the other hand, built himself into the most lethal hitter in baseball, and he did so illegally. Maybe what he did wasn’t illegal by MLB’s feeble standards, but it certainly was illegal by federal standards. Ruth and Aaron didn’t cheat to gain their advantages; instead, their numbers were a product of the eras in which they played, and while Barry’s numbers are also a product of the era in which he played (the Steroid Era, of course), he made a choice to alter the playing field and, ultimately, the history books through artificial means.

This is a matter of intention, not circumstance, and that’s why Barry Bonds deserves everything that’s coming to him. He chose this path. And while I’m all for forgiving someone who made a mistake, Bonds made his mistake repeatedly, did so knowing he was cheating, did so to help him break records that, turns out, weren’t really his to break. (In fact, Roger Maris’ 61* seems more authentic each day.) It’s not like he slathered on his flaxseed oil for a year or two. No, he hurdled Babe Ruth, Maris, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire…and then he kept right on cheating. Meanwhile, many writers, coaches, players and fans started calling him the greatest hitter of all time, watching his Hall of Fame career mutate, much like Bonds himself did, into one of legend.

If he had juiced for one year, in this era of rampant steroid use, then I could see a case for forgiveness. Or if he got caught corking his bat once, fine. What Bonds did was premeditated and relentless, with a goal of rising above everyone who’d ever played the game before. And I just can’t forgive that.

(By the way, how does Sosa look now? “Assuming” he used steroids, that makes his corked bat look even more pathetic. Apparently, crapping on baseball once wasn’t enough for Slammin’ Sammy.)

The absolute best part about all of this is, most fans won’t remember Bonds as one of the greatest players of all time, as one of the game’s most feared sluggers, or even as a seven-time MVP. Bonds will go down as a cheater, as someone who thought he was more important than the game. Fifty years from now, when someone mentions the name “Barry Bonds,” most people will think, “steroids.” And he’s got nobody to blame but himself.

Talk about poetic justice.

JEC @ 10:42 pm
Filed under: MLB and External MLB
Detroit survives to fight another day

Posted on Wednesday 31 May 2006

Detroit 91, Miami 78 (Heat lead series, 3-2)
They are called “free throws” for a reason. There you stand, fifteen feet from the basket, and you get to take an uncontested shot that’s worth one point. It’s not that complicated. The Heat lost this game because they went 6-20 (30%) from the charity stripe. And it wasn’t just Shaquille O’Neal (1-5) throwing up bricks. Dwayne Wade, Udonis Haslem and Gary Payton, who all shoot over 78% from the line, went a combined 1-8 from the line. Tayshaun Prince led the Pistons with 29 points, while Chauncey Billups and Rip Hamilton chipped in with 17 and 16, respectively. Wade led the Heat with 23 points while Shaquille O’Neal added 19 despite only playing 31 minutes due to foul trouble in the first half. This was the Pistons’ third elimination game in these playoffs and they must win two more to get to the Finals. Game 6 becomes a game that Miami needs to win, because they don’t want to go back to Detroit with the series on the line. With pressure on both teams, it should be a good one.

John Paulsen @ 10:05 pm
Filed under: NBA
Offseason Blueprint: Minnesota Timberwolves

Posted on Wednesday 31 May 2006

Cap Situation

Minnesota is on the books for over $51 M for the next three years, headlined by Kevin Garnett’s contract, which still has three years/$66 M remaining. While this seems like an incredible amount, a closer look at the numbers reveals that Garnett’s contract is reasonable given his production. Garnett is the league’s most efficient player at 30.3 per game and .778 per minute. At a salary of $18 M for last season, his $/EFF of $7,816 wasn’t far off the league average of $7,070.

Ricky Davis is signed for two more years at an average of $6.6 M per. The team would be hard-pressed to replace his 19 points, five rebounds and five assists at a cheaper price – his EPM is a mediocre .425, probably because he plays so many minutes (41.2 per game). However, the team’s VP of basketball operations – Kevin McHale – said in April that he was “very disappointed” with Davis’ defense this season, and this is an area that Davis will need to improve if the Timberwolves hope to return to the playoffs.

Mark Blount (4 years/$28.2 M) isn’t especially productive, but he did put up 10 points and five boards for Minnesota. Five boards a game isn’t very many for a center, but there aren’t that many rebounds to be had when Garnett is clearing 13 per game.

The Timberwolves’ guard situation is in flux. Their best guard, Marcus Banks, who averaged 12 points and five assists after the Davis/Wally Szczerbiak trade brought him to Minnesota, is a free agent and the team needs to re-sign him or find a suitable replacement in the draft or free agency. After trading away Sam Cassell (and a protected first round pick) to the Clippers for Marko Jaric, the team basically gave up on him as a starter. Jaric wants to play point guard, but at 6’7” is more suited for the off-guard role. The team owes him $32.8 M over the next five years.

Of all the Timberwolves’ contracts, Troy Hudson’s is the worst. He is signed for four more years at the tune of $24.6 M. This is a guy who averaged 10 points and three assists, while shooting a miserable 38% from the field.

Offseason Blueprint

Garnett is 30 so the window is slowly closing on his opportunity for a title. The team has gone backwards over the last three years; after a 58-win season in 2004, the team won 44 games in 2005 and just 33 in 2006. This is cause for serious concern.

McHale hasn’t proven to be very good at his job. The Davis/Szczerbiak trade was just okay, while the Cassell/Jaric trade has blown up in his face. He hasn’t drafted very well, either. In 2005, he passed on Danny Granger in favor of Rashad McCants, whose defensive intensity has since been called into question. In 2003, he drafted Ndudi Ebi instead of Leandro Barbosa or Josh Howard. Of course, McHale’s Joe Smith debacle cost the franchise its picks in 2002 and 2004, putting the franchise in a bad situation.

Yet this man still has a job. And it’s my job to help him.

If the team isn’t committed to Jaric, they need to move him and try to acquire a second tier player in return. It would make sense to land Mike James or Jason Terry via a sign-and-trade, and Jaric is probably team’s best trade asset. Garnett is the ultimate teammate and needs shooters and scorers around him. Davis is a start, but James and Terry would help immensely. Marcus Banks could also be re-signed and dealt if the team doesn’t think he’s the long-term answer at point guard. Banks is young, but still shot 47% from the field, so I wouldn’t be that quick to get rid of him.

A lot of mock drafts are predicting that the team will take Rudy Gay with the #6 overall pick. I don’t think this team needs another soft player with a questionable heart. Brandon Roy, Randy Foye or Marcus Williams would make more sense. Landing Roy at #6 would be a steal. The team could also use another big, but it will be tough to land one in free agency considering the team’s cap situation.

It makes a lot of sense to pair Banks with Roy in the backcourt, with Davis, Garnett and Blount up front. The team could then use Jaric to get a backup front line player, allowing the defensive-minded Hassell to relieve Roy and Davis. If the team decides to let Banks go, they need to find a way to land Terry, James or another point guard capable of scoring.

Notes:

Minnesota’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Kevin Garnett 0.778 # 1
Eddie Griffin 0.439 # 131
Ricky Davis 0.425 # 144
Marcus Banks 0.402 # 180
Mark Blount 0.395 # 189
Rashad McCants 0.360 # 252
Anthony Carter 0.350 # 264
Marko Jaric 0.348 # 268
Troy Hudson 0.325 # 287
Trenton Hassell 0.279 # 315
Justin Reed 0.267 # 324
Mark Madsen 0.257 # 335

Garnett is content to let others shoot while he dominates just about every other facet of the game. The key is to find players who shoot a high percentage while also playing tough defense. If McHale is able to add one or two solid free agents along with a good draft pick, he might be able to get Minnesota back in the playoffs within a couple of years. For some reason, I’m not holding my breath.

John Paulsen @ 3:55 pm
Filed under: NBA
Guess who’s back…back again

Posted on Wednesday 31 May 2006

In what certainly qualifies as one of the least surprising news stories of the season, Roger Clemens has agreed to a one-year (er, four-month) deal with the Houston Astros.

The seven-time Cy Young Award winner ended his seven-month retirement by accepting a deal that will pay him approximately $14 million — the pro-rated value of a $21 million seasonal contract — to pitch for the Astros for the balance of the current season.

The decision came after months of soul searching by Clemens and weeks of waiting by the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox, who had tendered offers to the right-hander in recent weeks. The Rangers were also in the hunt until they were informed on Friday that they were no longer in the running for Clemens.

Now that Brett Favre has decided to come back, Ricky Williams’ latest suspension has been upheld, and Clemens’ latest unretirement is official, we can all, thankfully, get on with our lives.

What does this mean for the Astros? Well, at 27-26, they’re only 6.5 games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central, and there’s still plenty of baseball to be played. Clemens, who went 13-8 last year despite an MLB-best 1.87 ERA, rejoins a rotation that includes former 20-game winners Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte, and Astros fans are no doubt hoping Clemens’ return will take some pressure off of Pettitte, who is currently struggling with a 5.65 ERA in 12 starts. Clemens will reportedly make a few minor-league appearances before taking the mound for Houston on June 22 against the Twins.

Gee, what story is going to lead off SportsCenter on June 23?

JEC @ 12:32 pm
Filed under: MLB
Toronto trading down?

Posted on Wednesday 31 May 2006

It looks like the Toronto Raptors would like to exchange their #1 overall pick for a pick in the #5-#10 range along with another pick or a dependable veteran.

Two players that the Raptors will target in that area are UConn PG Marcus Williams and Washington SG Brandon Roy.

With the team’s strength in the front court with Chris Bosh and Charlie Villanueva, a bigman such as Lamarcus Aldridge or Italian Andrea Bargnani make less sense. Also factoring into the equation is the fact that this is not a great draft to have the top overall selection, so a team such as Toronto could add a talented piece (veteran player) through trade and pick up a player in the mid lotto area who could end up just as good as the top pick in the long run.

I get the feeling that Mike James won’t be playing for the Raptors next season.

John Paulsen @ 11:41 am
Filed under: NBA
Nash out as Blazers’ GM

Posted on Wednesday 31 May 2006

John Nash, whose contract is set to expire in a month, won’t be back as Portland’s GM.

John Nash made his share of mistakes. With four first-round picks the past two years, his haul of Sebastian Telfair, Viktor Khryapa, Sergei Monia and Martell Webster left a lot to be desired — especially since Chris Paul could have been a Blazer. But Nash had his share of positive moves as well, including free-agent bargains Joel Przybilla, Steve Blake and Juan Dixon.

Unfortunately, those low-wattage additions were the only kinds of moves he could make because his hands were tied behind his back. With owner Paul Allen and team president Steve Patterson calling most of the shots, Nash was left to tinker around the edges. With such a muddled management structure, it’s no surprise that the Blazers sunk to the bottom of the NBA standings this season.

The team’s president, Steve Patterson, will serve as interim GM. The first thing he should do is read my offensive blueprint for the Blazers.

John Paulsen @ 11:25 am
Filed under: NBA
Suns shine in Game 4

Posted on Wednesday 31 May 2006

Phoenix 106, Dallas 86 (series tied, 2-2)
After dropping Game 1 at home, Dallas did what it needed to do in Game 3 - take back home court advantage. In Game 4, the Suns desperately needed a victory to avoid trailing 3-1 in the series, and with a win last night, they are tied, 2-2, heading back to Dallas. The game was closer than the final score would indcate. The Mavs trailed, 67-65, with 3:49 to play in the third quarter, but the Suns went on a 15-2 run over the next four and a half minutes to blow the game wide open. Raja Bell returned to the Phoenix lineup and gave the team an emotional lift, posting nine points, four rebounds and three assists in 30 minutes of play. More importantly, Bell’s return helped the Suns on the defensive end. Phoenix limited Dirk Nowitzki to just 11 points on 3-13 shooting, while the entire Dallas team shot just 42% from the floor. Bell’s presence in the starting lineup also put Leandro Barbosa back in his sixth man role, where he thrives. Barbosa led all scorers with 24 points on 10-13 shooting from the field. Expect the Suns to defend the same way in Game 5 - it’s up to the Mavs to make the appropriate adjustments offensively.

John Paulsen @ 11:16 am
Filed under: NBA
Offseason Blueprint: Atlanta Hawks

Posted on Tuesday 30 May 2006

Cap Situation

With Al Harrington coming off the books this summer, the Hawks have a payroll of roughly $30 M, which gives the team around $22 M of cap space this offseason. Last summer, the Hawks traded away Boris Diaw and two (protected) first round draft picks to the Phoenix Suns for Joe Johnson in the sign-and-trade deal that landed Johnson a hefty five-year/$70 M contract. Given Diaw’s steadily improving play throughout in the season, this trade was not looking particularly good for the Hawks, but Johnson’s play after the All-Star break – 21 points, seven assists, four rebounds – comes close to justifying his big contract.

Last summers’ other regretful move was the franchise’s decision to pass on Chris Paul in favor of Marvin Williams in the draft. Paul ran away with Rookie of the Year honors and would have been a great fit for a team in desperate need of a point guard. Who knows, Williams may turn out to be the better player, but right now, with a team full of forwards, it’s hard not to second-guess that decision – I’m sure many in Atlanta are doing the same.

Zaza Pachulia was a good offseason signing and his 12 points and eight rebounds are a nice deal for his remaining contract (3-years/$12 M). The team also has Josh Childress and Josh Smith signed for two more years under their original rookie contracts, so there is some talent on Atlanta’s roster.

The franchise would have been in a better situation had they unloaded Al Harrington for a prospect at the point guard or post positions, or for an expiring contract and a first round draft pick. Everyone in the league knew that Harrington was leaving the Hawks this offseason – why not get something for him? As they learned from the Suns, the team could still find a way to parlay Harrington into a player and/or a pick by way of a sign-and-trade with a team without cap space.

Offseason Blueprint

Leaving the Hawks’ mistakes in the rear view mirror for the moment, this franchise basically needs to stand pat and wait for next summer’s free agent crop, when they’ll get more for their money. They could try to upgrade at point guard this summer, which would allow Johnson to play his natural position (off-guard). There are a number of guys available in the free agent pool, from the expensive (Jason Terry, Mike James, Sam Cassell) to the not-so-expensive (Speedy Claxton, Marcus Banks). The first three are scorers, while the latter duo prefer to set their teammates up.

Another rumor that’s going around is a possible sign-and-trade of Harrington for Allen Iverson. Iverson has 3-years/$60 M remaining on his contract, so Atlanta’s cap space would be gone for the foreseeable future. Harrington’s obviously not worth that kind of money, so the Hawks would have to throw in a few other players to make the numbers work, which might be tough to do, considering the disparity and the lack of big salaries on the Atlanta roster. If Philadelphia is interested in Harrington, the Hawks might be better off trying to pry Andre Iguodala (2-years/$5 M), John Salmons (restricted free agent) or even Samuel Dalembert (5-years/$52 M) from the Sixers. It’s true that Iguodala and Salmons are small forwards – not what the Hawks need right now – but they are good players.

Atlanta has the fifth pick in this year’s draft, where they should have an opportunity to draft a good guard, possibly Brandon Roy, Randy Foye or Marcus Williams. Any of those three should work well with Johnson in the backcourt. The team needs to avoid selecting a small forward unless they believe that the player is far and away the best player on the board.

Considering that the draft picks sent to Phoenix in the Johnson trade are lottery protected for a couple of years, the Hawks have some time to turn the team around before feeling the negative effects of that acquisition. Their best bet is to try to get a prospect for Harrington via a sign-and-trade deal and to get a guard in the draft. That way, they should still have enough cap room next summer to sign a star free agent, possibly putting the team back in the playoffs within three years.

Notes:

Atlanta’s EPM by player (league average = .445)

Player EPM League Rank
Josh Smith 0.471 # 99
Al Harrington 0.467 # 102
Joe Johnson 0.467 # 103
Zaza Pachulia 0.457 # 115
Josh Childress 0.450 # 120
Tyronn Lue 0.411 # 164
Marvin Williams 0.382 # 214
Salim Stoudamire 0.348 # 269
Royal Ivey 0.288 # 310

Even with Harrington’s departure, the Hawks have four players in the Top 120 in Efficiency Per Minute plus the untapped potential of Marvin Williams. They lack a superstar, but if they don’t overpay for immediate help, they should have plenty of cap space to land a star next summer.

John Paulsen @ 1:24 pm
Filed under: NBA
Pistons on the verge of elimination…again

Posted on Monday 29 May 2006

Miami 89, Detroit 78 (Heat lead series, 3-1)
The wake up calls keep coming, but Detroit’s phone is off the hook. The Pistons once again looked sluggish and out of sorts in Game 4 and are about to be bounced from the playoffs for the first time in three years. For three quarters, the Heat were the better team, silencing critics by sharing the ball offensively and playing solid team defense. Though their stats in Game 4 aren’t overly impressive, Pat Riley’s offseason acquisitions of Antoine Walker, Gary Payton and Jason Williams are paying dividends and it looks like all of last year’s manuvering will land the Heat in the NBA Finals. But the Heat are still led by Dwayne Wade and Shaquille O’Neal, who scored 31 and 21, respectively. Wade was particularly efficient offensively, shooting 73% from the field. In fact, he’s been on fire the entire series (69%). The Pistons might be able to bounce back, but this doesn’t look like the same Detroit team that we’re used to - on either end of the floor.

John Paulsen @ 11:52 pm
Filed under: NBA
King picks Cowboys and Pats for SB XLI

Posted on Monday 29 May 2006

Sports Illustrated columnist Peter King picks the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys for his Super Bowl matchup for the upcoming season. The Cowboys could be extremely dangerous with the addition of the ever so entertaining and egotistical Terrell Owens. It finally gives them a weapon at wide receiver and could put them over the top in the NFC. But will it work? Owens has never played for a coach like Bill Parcells but he may be just the kind of hard-nosed coach that can keep T.O in line.

The Patriots are the Patriots and always have a great chance to be Super Bowl contenders every season. Another team that should be considered one of the favorites is the Indianapolis Colts. They’ve had high expectations the past few seasons and many people thought they were going to get it done last year but they fell short in the playoffs. Perhaps they finally will learn from past playoff appearances and put it all together for a Super Bowl run next season.

John Blake @ 3:24 pm
Filed under: NFL
Advantage, Mavs

Posted on Monday 29 May 2006

Dallas 95, Phoenix 88 (Mavs lead series, 2-1)
In Game 3, Dallas slowed the Suns down by playing disciplined offense and defense. By taking only good shots, the Mavericks limited the Suns’ runout ability, forcing them to execute in the half court offensively. Dirk Nowitzki led the way with 28 points and 17 rebounds, while Josh Howard chipped in 22 and 12. It appears that Avery Johnson’s adjustments made after the loss in Game 1 are paying off. It will be interesting to see what kind of boost that Phoenix will get from the return of Raja Bell - if he’s able to play in Game 4 on Tuesday.

John Paulsen @ 2:29 pm
Filed under: NBA
Bonds passes Ruth, world at large shugs indifferently

Posted on Monday 29 May 2006

Let me get this out of the way: I’m not a big fan of Barry Bonds, and believe it or not it has little to nothing to do with the whole BALCO thing. It’s that whole swaggering arrogance thing, that I’m-better-than-you attitude he lords over pretty much everyone. Having said that, the fact that his passing of Babe Ruth on the home run leaders list was met with equal parts indifference and hostility is nothing short of tragic.

Here’s why: Bonds is a better ball player than everyone else in his generation. He was well on his way to the Hall of Fame before any of this alleged steroid nonsense took place. Purists would like to wipe his numbers off of the books, and while that opens a whole can of worms involving Ken Caminiti’s MVP award, Rafael Palmeiro and a half dozen other hitters, not to mention pitchers, let’s take 150 home runs — which roughly translates to the number of dingers he hit from 2001-2003 — off of the books. That still makes him the sole member of the 500-500 (home runs & stolen bases) club. Only four players are in the 300-300 club, and no one is in the 400-400 club. That is simply staggering.

And yet, we curse his name and pray to God, Allah or anyone who will listen not to let him pass Hank Aaron as the all time home run leader. Personally, I don’t think it’s going to happen. His knees are shot, and if it took him this long to hit seven home runs this season, it’s going to take him three years to hit another 40. But Bonds, warts and all, is truly one of the greatest players in baseball history, and while there was no way he was going to force people to like him, he could have made it very difficult for people not to respect him. But pride got the best of him, and he threw it all away in order to keep that “white boy” from getting his glory.

Let’s count the number of deadly sins that were committed in this whole sordid affair.
Bonds - Envy (of McGwire and Sosa), Pride (insisted that everyone acknowledge him at the best player in baseball)
MLB - Greed, Sloth (owners clearly knew something was up, but did nothing to stop the players from juicing, since it was filling the ballparks again after the strike in 1994)
Fans - Lust (for dingers at first), Wrath (lust for blood later)

And now, instead of celebrating Bonds passing Ruth, everyone is celebrating each home run hit by Albert Pujols, the “clean one,” and holding out hope that one day he will pass Bonds, thereby making everything “better” again. Sad, sad, sad.

David Medsker @ 12:02 pm
Filed under: MLB and External MLB
Williams signs with Argonauts

Posted on Sunday 28 May 2006

After being suspended for one season for violating the NFL’s drug policy for the fourth time, Ricky Williams has reached a deal with the Toronto Argonauts to play in the CFL in 2006. The deal is reportedly a one-year contract worth $240,000, which would make Williams the highest paid running back in the league.

The $240,000 is a far cry from the $8.6 million that Williams still owes to the Miami Dolphins, but at least he will remain in game shape while he sits out for one season.

Against the Dolphins wish of Williams playing in the CFL, head coach Nick Saban said he would leave the final decision up to Ricky.

“We expressed to Ricky our concerns about playing in Toronto in 2006,” Saban said. “We are relying on assurances made by Ricky, his agent, the Toronto Argonauts, and the commissioner of the Canadian Football League that Ricky will return to the Dolphins in 2007.

“Based on these assurances and despite our concerns for Ricky playing in the CFL in 2006, we will leave it up to him to decide whether or not he will negotiate a contract to play for the Argonauts this year.”

I’ve never seen a decision to ultimately quit football to take drugs backfire as much as it has for Ricky Williams. He quits, realizes he owes $8.6 million, decides to return, gets caught again and now he’s playing in the CFL just to earn more money.

If this situation is not turned into an after school special on why drugs are bad, I don’t know what will.

Anthony Stalter @ 3:22 pm
Filed under: NFL
Steelers ups and downs

Posted on Sunday 28 May 2006

The World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers received good news and bad news this weekend.

The good news, Big Ben Roethlisberger is looking even better this spring than last. The Pittsburgh coaching staff felt that Ben use to rely on physically ability and will to win in his first couple years. They feel the playoff experience has given Roethlisberger the confidence needed to excel even further as a leader on this Steeler squad. Pittsburgh’s not ready to become a throw first team, but they do believe Ben’s decision making and confidence will make it easier for the team to throw when the run is not successful.

The bad news, Santonio Holmes, the Steelers first round pick was arrested this weekend for disorderly conduct in South Beach. The Steeler organization has little tolerance for off the field problems. They released Plaxico Burress because of his attitude and continuing problems away from the gridiron. This won’t sit well with the Rooney family and I’m sure Holmes will feel the wrath of Bill Cowher.

Bob @ 8:40 am
Filed under: NFL
Heat hold serve

Posted on Saturday 27 May 2006

Miami 98, Detroit 83 (Heat lead series, 2-1)
Going into the playoffs, I thought the Pistons were the cohesive team, but it’s Miami that’s looking more and more like a championship caliber squad. Once again, the dynamic duo led the Heat - Dwayne Wade scored 35 while Shaquille O’Neal went for 27/12 in the victory. The Heat shot an incredible 58% from the field while holding the Pistons to just 42%. Throw in a 40-27 rebound advantage for Miami and it all adds up to a win. Detroit looks fragmented and out of sorts and, frankly, I don’t think Flip Saunders has control of the team. He tried to pat Rasheed Wallace on the back as he came out of the game after picking up his second foul in the first half and Wallace reacted like Saunders had the avian flu. Chauncey Billups played a great game, scoring 31 on 11-17 shooting, but only had three assists in the loss. Miami went to the “Hack-a-Ben” in the fourth quarter, fouling Ben Wallace several times down the stretch, and the Defensive Player of the Year responded with 2-10 shooting from the charity stripe. Game 4 is really crucial for the Pistons - they do not want to go down 3-1 in the series. At the same time, the Heat don’t want to go back to Detroit tied 2-2, so expect a knock-down, drag-out fight on Monday.

John Paulsen @ 11:59 pm
Filed under: NBA
Offseason Blueprint: Toronto Raptors

Posted on Saturday 27 May 2006

Cap Situation

With Antonio Davis ($13.9 M) and Lamond Murray ($5.3 M) coming off the books, the Raptors have a payroll of $38.3 M, giving them roughly $14 M in cap space this summer. Chris Bosh had a stellar EPM of .628 – which was the 14th best in the league – is entering the last year of his rookie contract.

Charlie Villanueva is signed for three more years and his EPM of .480 (in his rookie year) was 90th in the league. He plays basically the same position as Bosh, but the two players have proven that they can be effective when they play together. Morris Peterson stepped up his game once Jalen Rose was traded, averaging 21 ppg after the All-Star break, but only shot 43% from the field for the season. His EPM of .404 (#174 in the league) is not awe-inspiring, but his $4.5 M salary makes him a good value.

Toronto’s short-term cap situation will hinge on what the team does with free agent Mike James, who averaged 21 points and six assists per game on a stellar 47% shooting. He was even better after the All-Star break – the guard averaged 25 points and seven assists in the final 28 games of the season.

Offseason Blueprint

The Raptors are on the clock.

Since former Phoenix executive Bryan Colangelo took over as the GM in Toronto, Bosh has indicated that he would like to re-sign with the Raptors. Colangelo’s intent seems to be to build the team in the mold of the Suns, and it appears that this idea appeals to Bosh. The team’s number one priority should be to sign Bosh to an extension, so the franchise might want to avoid spending a lot of money this summer if they want to stay under the cap in 2007-08, as he’ll command $14 M or more in annual salary.

Mike James had a terrific year, and his EPM of .509 was #10 in the league among point guards. The two knocks on James are his age (31 in June) and that he has a reputation of being a shoot-first point guard. Colangelo would like to find a pass-first point guard like Steve Nash. As a comparison, James’ shot-to-assist ratio was 2.7 compared to Nash’s 1.3. Those numbers are a little unfair due to the talent present on the Suns roster. James was leading a team with a lot less firepower and would have probably taken fewer shots and tallied more assists had the other perimeter players around him been more efficient shooters.

It would be unwise to sign James to a deal longer than three or four years, but he would be a good deal at an average of $6-$7 M for that span. The guard is an asset, so if the club is not sold on him, they should try to negotiate a sign-and-trade with another franchise to get something in return. James has expressed an interest in going to Houston – where he’d be a great fit - but the Rockets have already traded him away once (for Rafer Alston) so it’s unclear if he’s even wanted there.

Colangelo might have some trouble finding a pass-first point guard in free agency. Here are the shot-to-assist ratios of the top free agent point guards, with their EPMs in parenthesis:

Jason Terry - 3.6 (.429)
Sam Cassell - 2.3 (.514)
Speedy Claxton - 2.2 (.424)
Bobby Jackson - 3.9 (.386)
Marcus Banks - 2.1 (.402)

Given those numbers, Banks or Claxton might be a good option. Banks should also be the most affordable, while Claxton will probably expect a salary in the $4 M range.

The Raptors have the first pick in the draft, and the rumor mill has them selecting Andrea Bargnani, who basically plays the same position as Villanueva. They could package Villanueva in a trade with another player and try to coax Jamal Magloire from the Bucks. Magloire is a Toronto native, so he might be a good fit, although he doesn’t strike me as a player you’d acquire if you are trying to build a Suns-like team.

It’s going to take a year or three before Colangelo can make Toronto a winner again. I’m sure they regret not taking Andre Iguodala instead of Rafael Araujo in the 2004 draft, but their draft picks in 2003 and 2005 – Bosh and Villanueva, respectively – turned out pretty well, giving the franchise ammunition for improvement.

Notes:

Toronto’s EPM by player

Player EPM League Rank
Chris Bosh 0.628 # 14
Mike James 0.509 # 62
Charlie Villanueva 0.480 # 90
Loren Woods 0.472 # 98
Matt Bonner 0.409 # 168
Morris Peterson 0.404 # 174
Pape Sow 0.380 # 217
Jose Calderon 0.356 # 256
Joey Graham 0.351 # 263
Antonio Davis 0.308 # 299
Rafael Araujo 0.272 # 322

John Paulsen @ 12:26 pm
Filed under: NBA
Mavs fight back

Posted on Saturday 27 May 2006

Dallas 105, Phoenix 98 (series tied, 1-1)
For Dallas fans, this “must-win” game was probably too close for comfort. But they had to take solace in the fact that it was Dirk Nowitzki - not Steve Nash - that was tearing it up offensively in the fourh quarter. Nowitzki - who has a tendency to be a little passive in crunch time - scored 12 of his game-high 30 points in the final quarter, hitting jumpers and attacking the rim when it mattered most. The Big German also led his team with 14 rebounds. Josh Howard - who hurt his ankle in Game 1 - wasn’t supposed to play, but ended up having a great night, posting 29 points and seven rebounds. Avery Johnson once again started Keith Van Horn, who continues to disappoint, but later inserted Dasagana Diop at center. Diop helped to cover Boris Diaw - who still had a big game (25 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) - but wasn’t able to score near the hoop as easily given Diop’s presence. Shawn Marion had another monster game for the Suns, 19 points, 19 boards and three steals. But Leandro Barbosa - who was filling in for Raja Bell - had an awful night, scoring only eight points on 3-15 shooting. In the end, Phoenix did what it wanted to do in the first two games - steal one - while Dallas did what it needed to do in Game 2. Game 3 is set for Sunday in Phoenix.

John Paulsen @ 11:49 am
Filed under: NBA
Party fouls issued to Smoot, McKinnie

Posted on Friday 26 May 2006

There is nothing wrong about taking a nice boat cruise to release some frustrations after starting an NFL season 1-3. Unless of course that cruise was filled with sex toys, some strippers and a bunch of Minnesota Vikings that is.

Cornerback Fred Smoot and offensive tackle Bryant “Mount” McKinnie pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges for their actions while at a party on a cruise taken during the Vikings bye week last season. Both players agreed to pay a $1,000 fine and perform 48 hours of community service as their penance.

Smoot was charged with using a sex toy on two female dancers in front of crew members during the cruise, while McKinnie had been accused of performing oral sex on a dancer in a public area of the boat.

The best quote of this article came from Steve Tallen, the prosecutor in this case:

“Hopefully, next year’s party will be at the children’s hospital,” Tallen said.

I’m not entirely sure, but I don’t think the parents of those kids would like Smoot and McKinnie hanging around their sick children very much.

Unless of course it was one of those make a wish foundations and Smoot and McKinnie could rent that boat again.

Anthony Stalter @ 11:52 pm
Filed under: NFL
Couch Potato Alert

Posted on Friday 26 May 2006

The NBA playoffs continue this weekend, with a game per day for the forseeable future. Fox is broadcasting regional MLB games on Saturday.

NBA
Fri, 8:30 PM: Phoenix @ Dallas - TNT
Sat, 8 PM: Detroit @ Miami - ESPN
Sun, 8:30 PM: Dallas @ Phoenix - TNT

MLB
Sat, 1:20 PM: Atlanta @ Chicago Cubs - FOX
Sat, 1:20 PM: LA Dodgers @ Washington - FOX
Sat, 1:20 PM: NY Mets @ Florida - FOX
Sat, 4:05 PM: St. Louis @ San Diego - FOX
Sun, 8:05 PM: Oakland @ Texas - ESPN

NHL
Fri, 7:30 PM: Buffalo @ Carolina - OLN
Sat, 9 PM: Edmonton @ Anaheim - OLN

Auto Racing
Sat, 8 PM: NHRA - ESPN2
Sun, 2 PM: Indy 500 - ABC
Sun, 5 PM: NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 - FOX

John Paulsen @ 4:02 pm
Filed under: NBA and MLB and NHL and Television
Efficiency Per Minute

Posted on Friday 26 May 2006

In the Offseason Blueprints that I’ve been putting together for each team, I’ve been using a statistic, efficiency per minute (or EPM), to compare players’ performances over the past season. Here is the efficiency statistic, as created by the NBA:

EFF = ((Points + Rebounds + Assists + Steals + Blocks) - ((Field Goals Att. - Field Goals Made) + (Free Throws Att. - Free Throws Made) + Turnovers))

It basically takes all of the positive statistics (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) and subtracts the negative ones (missed field goals, missed free throws and turnovers), finally yielding a player’s efficiency number for a particular game.

I have gone one step further and divided a player’s efficiency for the season by the total number of minutes he played, making it easier to compare a player that gets 40 minutes a game with one that plays 20.

This season, 348 players averaged greater than 10 minutes/game AND played 20 games or more. These are the only players that are used to calculate the league average (.441).

Here are the Top 10 players by position in EPM:

Point Guard
Steve Nash 0.682
Allen Iverson 0.607
Chris Paul 0.590
Chauncey Billups 0.585
Jason Kidd 0.576
Gilbert Arenas 0.572
Tony Parker 0.534
Sam Cassell 0.514
Baron Davis 0.509
Mike James 0.509

Shooting Guard
Dwyane Wade 0.698
Kobe Bryant 0.680
Paul Pierce 0.626
Vince Carter 0.571
Emanuel Ginobili 0.555
Ray Allen 0.546
Corey Maggette 0.526
Michael Redd 0.520
Bonzi Wells 0.507
Jason Richardson 0.502

Small Forward
Shawn Marion 0.715
Lebron James 0.691
Gerald Wallace 0.584
Carmelo Anthony 0.575
Chuck Hayes 0.573
Andrei Kirilenko 0.568
Boris Diaw 0.565
Tracy McGrady 0.557
Richard Jefferson 0.535
Lamar Odom 0.533

Power Forward
Kevin Garnett 0.778
Elton Brand 0.727
Dirk Nowitzki 0.718
Tim Duncan 0.661
Carlos Boozer 0.644
Chris Bosh 0.628
Jermaine O’Neal 0.607
Pau Gasol 0.603
Dwight Howard 0.578
Mehmet Okur 0.562

Center
Yao Ming 0.731
Marcus Camby 0.689
Shaquille O’Neal 0.678
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 0.620
Alonzo Mourning 0.590
Brad Miller 0.552
Dan Gadzuric 0.549
Jake Tsakalidis 0.538
Channing Frye 0.531
Samuel Dalembert 0.526

John Paulsen @ 3:36 pm
Filed under: NBA