The Colts are the best team in the league and my favorite to win the Super Bowl. I know, I know – I’m not really going out on a limb with this pick, so why is it relevant? Before the season, I was asked to pick an overrated and underrated team for a feature on Bullz-Eye.com. I chose the Colts as my overrated team. Here’s an excerpt:

The problem lies with their defense. Last season, they were 29th in total defense, 27th in yards per rushing attempt, 18th in scoring defense and dead last in opponents’ pass completion percentage. This is not going to get it done. There are signs of hope, however. The Colts D was third in the league in takeaways and sixth in the league in sacks. If the Indianapolis defense is able to crack the top 10 in most of the aforementioned categories, they might have a chance to make the big game. But until they prove their defense is at least a threat to stop the opposing team, we’ll continue to see the Colts exit the playoffs quickly.

At the time, the Patriots and the Colts had identical Super Bowl odds (11-2). New England had yet to be decimated by injuries and Indianapolis had yet to prove they could play any defense. Well, seven weeks into the season and the Colts look like the team to beat. They are sixth in the league in total defense, fifth in passing defense, fifth in takeaways, and they lead the league in sacks. Their offense has been a bit inconsistent, but their defense has proven it can win the close games. Tony Dungy appears to have succeeded in his goal to make the Colts D one of the top units in the league, and his reward may be home field throughout the playoffs and a Super Bowl ring. However, there is one worrisome statistic that may prove to be fatal. Indianapolis is allowing 4.5 yards per rush, good for 27th in the league. A team with a good defense and a strong running game (with enough of a pass offense to keep the defense off balance) could cause problems for the Colts. What team most closely fits the bill? The Pittsburgh Steelers.