Fantasy Football Q&A: Preseason >> August 29
So Cedric Benson finally ended his holdout and signed a five-year deal with the Bears. How does that affect your draft rankings and upcoming fantasy football season?
Well, for starters, Chicago RB Thomas Jones, last year’s starter and the biggest benefactor from Benson’s holdout, should be sliding down your lists. Jones will still start the first few games of the season, at least, but Benson’s the future and the Bears will hand him the job at some point this year. Jones should be the team’s third-down back because he’s a much better receiver than Benson, but most of Jones’ fantasy value goes out the window with Benson signing.
As for Benson, he should be drafted or claimed in every league since rookie runners have a much higher success rate than rookies at other positions. He’s so far behind at this point that you can’t expect a 1,000 yard season for Benson, but also keep in mind that Willis McGahee sat behind Travis Henry for the first four games in Buffalo last year and still totaled 1,128 yards and 13 touchdowns, while rookie Julius Jones finished with 819 rushing yards and seven touchdowns despite playing in only eight games last season. Don’t draft Benson in the third or fourth round expecting that kind of production but, with his upside, Benson certainly deserves consideration once the first 20-25 backs are off the board, maybe even earlier in keeper leagues. After all, there’s a reason the Bears chose Benson with the fourth-overall choice in last April’s draft.
As rookie runners go, I prefer Carnell Williams, J.J. Arrington and maybe even Ronnie Brown (depending on what the Dolphins do with Ricky Williams) to Benson this year but, going forward, Benson has just as much potential as any of his fellow first-year backs and he’s a great fit in the Bears’ offense. Just don’t expect to see big numbers right away.
Got your own questions on the upcoming fantasy season? Wondering if Randy Moss is a first-round choice or if Fred Taylor is a reliable #2 running back? We’ve got the answers, so let’s hear your questions. Post ‘em here and we’ll get back to you within 24 hours with a response.
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With a rookie QB, I don’t expect the CHI offense to have much success this year, but the Benson signing definitely put him back on my radar. He wouldn’t be a bad 4th RB (or even a 3rd in leagues where you only have to start one RB). Jones, who had looked great in the pre-season, might be the starter all year or he might take a back seat earlier than later. His fortune lies with that of the team – if they are winning (not likely) he’ll get the bulk of the carries as the Bears probably don’t want to have both a rookie QB and RB on the field at the same time. If they are losing (likely) then they’ll hand the job over to Benson (assuming he performs in practice) and let him gain valuable experience.
Mike Anderson looks like the guy in Denver. Where would that put him in the RB rankings?
I’m probably not as high on Anderson as some other guys. Any starting running back in Denver certainly deserves fantasy consideration, so for that reason alone Anderson should be on your radar come draft day. He seems to have a firm grip on the starting job heading into the season after ripping off a 93-yard TD run last weekend, and he’s been highly productive before, running for 1500 yards and 15 touchdowns as a rookie in 2000. But Tatum Bell is likely the future in Denver, and while Bell may be sitting behind Anderson on the depth chart right now, I expect that to change at some point this season.
Because of his upside, some people are suggesting that Bell still deserves to be selected before Anderson, but I wouldn’t go that far. In the current situation, I’d personally rank Anderson around #20 among running backs, behind surefire starters like Lamont Jordan and my top rookie (for this year, anyway), Cadillac Williams, but ahead of question marks like Fred Taylor and Lee Suggs. Just don’t be surprised if Anderson’s a backup at some point this year. You’ll get some good performances from him early on, and quite honestly there’s at least a decent chance that he holds onto the job all year, but I’d keep a close eye on the number of carries Bell gets throughout the year and if you notice a shift in the workload, I’d look to deal Anderson before he’s riding the pine.
How does J.J. Arrington stack up? I’ve seen a lot of talk about him lately and he seems to be moving up drafts lists. Is it hype or is this guy for real?
I wonder about Bell. If Shanahan has decided that he’s the future in DEN, why does he waste a third round pick on Clarett and bring Dayne in from NY? I suspect that as long as Anderson makes the right reads and stays healthy, he’s the guy in DEN this season. If he starts all 16 games, he’s almost guaranteed a Top 15 finish, which would make him a 3rd round pick with some risk. C. WIlliams and JJ Arrington are in more stable yet less productive situations, so their value is about the same. Even the pro scouts don’t know for sure if either guy is a real deal until they actually play, but both players are in situations where they will get a lot of carries and in fantasy football, opportunity is everything. Well, it’s almost everything.
Zookeeper wrote, on our previous Q&A thread:
If I go RB, RB, TE, WR, I am still thinking of picking another RB @ the 5/6 turn. Who is worthy of such a move? I feel Arrington would be a no-brainer, w/ C.Williams close behind. Where do you see people like M.Anderson/Bell, R.Williams/Brown T.Jones/Benson, C.Brown/Herery, Foster/Davis & who is the better pick of them? Lastly, how high would you reach for a W.Parker, or do you have another dark-horse-sleeper?
Getting RB depth in the 5th / 6th after going that way for the first four rounds is a wise decision. Arrington and C. Williams would be no brainers, but I’d take Williams first as I feel that TB has the better offense at this point. I think I’d take Anderson before the two rookies as I don’t feel that he’s going to lose his job anytime soon, unless Shanahan is just playing mind games with Bell. The CHI, MIA, CAR and TEN situations are too much up in the air to recommend one over another, so I would just stay away and draft a guy like Kevan Barlow, who has played well in the preseason, has some upside and very little competition at the moment.
Gary, you’ve got to take someone who led the nation in rushing with more than 2,000 yards seriously, at least until he proves otherwise. Arrington’s going to start for Dennis Green, and considering backs in Green’s system tend to produce quality fantasy numbers (Robert Smith comes to mind), the Cardinals rookie is certainly an intriguing mid-round selection. That said, Arrington hasn’t had a very good preseason and he’s got Marcell Shipp behind him. Shipp may not be a big name, but let’s not forget that he ran for more than 800 yards in 2002 and 2003, and he’s carrying an impressive 8.2 yards/carry average in limited work this preseason.
But Green wants Arrington to start and he’ll give him several chances to succeed before turning to Shipp, all of which makes Arrington an ideal third back and a decent second back if you choose to stock up on receivers and a starting quarterback before grabbing a #2 RB. I’d still take fellow rookie Cadillac Williams ahead of Arrington but, like Williams, Arrington has a shot at a 1,000-yard debut season.
My draft is tonight at 6 and I’ve done NOTHING to prepare yet. I’m picking 5th out of ten teams, and I’d like to see if you have any sleeper picks for me. I’m looking to scoop up three running backs with my first four or five picks. Any info you can help me with will be awesome!
AC
Getting two good backs with your first two picks shouldn’t be a problem at all, considering you’re drafting fifth. Your biggest question will come in the third when you must decide if you want to take one of the lower-tier running backs and pass on a premier receiver, or if you’d rather take one of the top WRs and roll the dice that a decent third back will be available coming back in the fourth. My best advice, if you’re set on getting three good backs, would be to compile a list of running backs that you’d want on your team and be sure to get three of those guys.
As for sleepers, the Internet makes it tough to truly define what a sleeper is because there are so many people issuing fantasy advice that someone’s “sleeper” is listed as a sleeper on about a dozen other sites, making it nearly impossible to take anyone by surprise on draft day. There are several undervalued players out there, though, depending on what positions you’re looking at. At QB, everyone’s fallen in love with Carson Palmer, which actually threatens to make Cinci’s young quarterback a bit overvalued in drafts. But Brian Griese’s consistently been going late, once the first 20 or so quarterbacks are off the board, which suggests people don’t really know how well he played for Tampa last year. He’s a prime #2 quarterback. Chad Pennington, Drew Brees and even Steve McNair fit in that class as well.
At RB, Kevan Barlow looks like a good value pick. He was a major bust last year and his situation hasn’t changed all that much — the 49ers still suck and his line is atrocious — but he’s the starter, San Fran picked up his option and there’s a reason he was such a hot choice last year. He’s got the opportunity and ability, now let’s see if Barlow capitalizes. I wouldn’t want to depend on Barlow, meaning I wouldn’t take him as a second back, but he’s an ideal #3 RB to have on your bench and you should be able to land him in the fourth or later. Paulsen’s discussed Mike Anderson’s situation, and his argument is so compelling that I’m actually sliding him up a bit on my draft lists, though I’d still take rookie Cadillac Williams ahead of Anderson. Some other potential RB sleepers would be Minnesota’s Mewelde Moore, who could start over Michael Bennett, Cleveland’s Lee Suggs, whose preseason injury has driven his average draft position way down, Travis Henry, who’s got a great chance to become a solid #2 back this year while initially sharing time with the injury-prone Chris Brown, and Willie Parker, who should start early for the Steelers with Jerome Bettis and Duce Staley banged up. I also think Marshall Faulk could provide some value, especially in leagues that award one point per reception.
At receiver, some names to consider would be Steve Smith, Laveranues Coles, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Roy Williams, Antonio Bryant, Plaxico Burress, Justin McCareins, Chris Chambers, Travis Taylor, Tyrone Calico and Kevin Curtis, all of whom, for one reason or another, could outperform their draft positions.
Hope that helps.
Zookeeper, I agree with Paulsen that the situations in Chicago, Miami, Carolina and Tennessee are pretty ugly for fantasy owners, but out of all of the backs battling for PT on those teams, I like Travis Henry the best. The Titans immediately signed him to a four-year extension after picking him up from Buffalo, and Chris Brown proved last year that the concerns about his ability to stay healthy are legit. At worst, Henry and Brown will split carries, with Henry getting the bulk of the work near the goal line and Brown getting more play in the passing game. In scoring leagues, this makes Henry more intriguing since he could realistically wind up with 800 yards and 8 TDs. But at best (for Henry owners, anyway), Brown spends some time on the sidelines with an injury and Henry takes hold of the starting job. If Henry and Brown split carries all year (Jeff Fisher said earlier this summer that he wouldn’t be surprised if they each saw 200 carries), Henry will still be a very good bench running back, but the upside is certainly there for the former Bill to become a fantasy starter once again. I’ve picked him up late in almost every one of my drafts — I snagged him in the 10th in our Scores Report league (recap coming later) — and I’m happy to have him.
As for Willie Parker, everyone’s all over him now that he’s going to start the season opener for Pittsburgh and may be in line for more starts, depending on the health of Bettis and Staley. I like Parker but I’m not crazy about him, for the simple fact that, if everything goes as planned for the Steelers, he won’t get more than two or three starts before sliding back into his third-down role. He’s a nice guy to snag late for bench depth, especially if you’ve got a weak backfield and could use a nice week-one matchup for your second back, but beyond that, I wouldn’t get too excited.
Hello Guys, I am in a 2 player keeper league and will be keeping 2 RB’s. All of the top notch Wr and QB’s will be kept. With the fourth overall pick should I take a guy like J.Jones, T.Barber, L.Jordan over a second tier WR?
Aaron – Your draft is tonight and you’ve done nothing to prepare? I am hesitant to help you here as I love playing AGAINST guys like you in leagues
If you end up with Holmes at #5, be sure to pick up LJ in the 4th (or 5th at the latest). If I were in your situation, I’d probably draft two RBs with my first two picks, assuming that RBs are at their normal value in your league. Then I would draft a top WR (Holt, Moss, CJ, TO, Harrison) in the 3rd or Gonzalez if you have to start a TE. In the 4th, I’d look back to RB and take the best one available (or LJ if you have Priest). Sleepers? At RB, Anderson, Barlow, Moore and W. Green interest me at their Average Draft Positions (ADP, which you can find at antsports.com). At WR, J. Smith, R. Smith, Kennison, Houshmandzadeh, Lloyd, Rogers, Colbert, Battle, Taylor, Randle El, S. Parker and Galloway seem to be drafted later than they should. At QB, Favre, Brooks, Hasselbeck and Plummer can be had much later than Bulger, Collins and Green but the point disparity shouldn’t be as big as draft positions indicate. Lastly, for TEs, Cooley, Wiggins and Jerramy Stevens are great values at their ADP. There, I’ve given away all my secrets.
mminelli – Who are the RBs that you are keeping and does your league reward 1 point per reception?
Guys – thanks for all the feedback. I’m playing in a work league, and believe it or not, no one had done a whole lot of prep work until yesterday. Needless to say, we’ve been busy around here
Anyway, I really apppreciate all the tips. I need to do well because I’m not willing to listen to a barrage of smack talk from these jokers every day.
AC
I’m keeping D. Mcallister and J.Lewis. and yes we do get the 1 point per recpt.
Lewis doesn’t catch a whole lot of passes and he hasn’t played yet in the preseason so there is some cause for concern. If you have a shot at Barber, jump on him. He’s coming off a 2,000 yard season and should have a very good year. Every preseason people underrate the guy and every year he turns in a great season. I also like J. Jones and Jordan, so either of them would be adequate if Tiki is taken. Regarding WRs, it depends on who is available. After the Big 5 (Moss, Holt, CJ, Owens, Harrison), there is a bit of a falloff, but Walker and Burleson should turn in great seasons – the RBs you mentioned should be selected first, however.
Quick question for you. Sorry for asking this question it seems a little trite. But, do you think that the events with the hurricane will affect the players on the New Orleans Saints squad from a fantasy perspective?
Since they will have no true home games, no where to recharge, will they run out of juice at the end of the year?
It’s a fair question, mminelli, and one that I’m not sure anyone can accurately answer. What’s happening in Louisiana right now is terrifying and heartbreaking, and certainly our thoughts and prayers are with the people who are suffering from Hurricane Katrina, along with their friends and family.
From a fantasy perspective, I wouldn’t be surprised if this has a negative impact on the Saints as a team for the exact reasons you’ve outlined. Still, it’s such a tough thing to gauge. I wouldn’t bother adjusting your rankings too dramatically; Deuce McAllister and Joe Horn are still excellent fantasy options, Aaron Brooks remains a productive though inconsistent fantasy quarterback, and Donte Stallworth will still be a decent bench receiver with some serious upside.
This Q&A thread is now closed. Please visit our latest Q&A [LINK] with any draft or lineup questions as we head into week one of the regular season.
Zookeeper, please see our current Q&A [LINK] for an answer to your question.