Fantasy Football Q&A: Preseason >> July 31
Wondering who you should take in the first round? Trying to figure out if Julius Jones is a better pick than Ahman Green? Want to know how the loss of Randy Moss will affect Daunte Culpepper’s value this year? Draft day is fast approaching and everyone’s got questions. Well, we’re here to help. Throughout the preseason, we’ll run these Q&A threads every Sunday night and then, during the week, you can post your questions. Whether you’re looking for advice on drafting, keepers, trades, scoring, whatever, post them here (by clicking “comments”) and we’ll give you our opinions. We’re not saying we know everything under the fantasy sun, but nobody does…even if some sites claim otherwise. We do, however, have a few decades’ worth of fantasy experience and if you’re looking for answers, you’ll find some here. So fire away, and we’ll try to post a response within 24 hours.
PLUS: We’ll be running weekly Q&A threads during the regular season to take your questions on match-ups, lineup decisions, trades and free-agent pickups.
Follow the Scores Report editors on Twitter @TheScoresReport. You can also follow TSR editor Gerardo Orlando @clevelandteams and @bullzeyedotcom, and you can follow TSR editor Anthony Stalter @AnthonyStalter.
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any rookie receivers worth taking a chance on in the early to mid rounds? can braylon do anything in cleveland with dilfer throwing him the rock?
It used to be that you couldn’t expect much of anything from rookie receivers, but that seems to have changed a bit the past couple of years. Last season, four different rookies delivered fantasy-worthy numbers: Michael Clayton (1,193 yards, 7 TD), Lee Evans (843 yards, 9 TD), Roy Williams (817 yards, 8 TD) and Larry Fitzgerald (780 yards, 8 TD). While it may be too much to expect similar production from this year’s rookie receiver crop, there are a couple of guys who merit consideration on draft day. Certainly, Edwards should be taken based on potential alone, even if Dilfer is going to hurt his overall production. Still, the Browns will be running the ball so much that Edwards, who’s a lock to start in Cleveland, should be able to post some solid numbers against defenses cheating in to stop Lee Suggs, Reuben Droughns and William Green. Can he duplicate Clayton’s performance for Tampa last year? Very doubtful, but he could wind up with 800 yards and 6-8 touchdowns, numbers that virtually mirror those put up by Fitzgerald, Williams and Evans last season.
As for this year’s other rookie receivers, I love Mike Williams but I wonder if he’ll have the chance to contribute significantly while sharing the field with Roy Williams and Charles Rogers. Of course, if Rogers, who’s missed most of the last two years with a broken colllarbone, can’t stay healthy again this season, then Mike Williams because much more intriguing. In Minnesota, Troy Williamson is expected to eventually take over as the #1 receiver now that Randy Moss is in Oakland, but while he should deliver some good games this season, the Vikings have made it clear that they’ll bring Williamson along slowly, which means he’ll likely start the season as the third receiver. Look out for Mark Clayton, though. Word is the Ravens will start the year with Clayton on the bench but considering Baltimore’s offensive problems, I’d expect to see Clayton starting alongside Derrick Mason before long. Of course, Clayton will need Kyle Boller to finally develop into a serviceable NFL quarterback, and even with Jim Fassel’s help, that may be asking too much.
So, to answer your question, there aren’t any rookie receivers worth a look in the early rounds. But if you want to roll the dice with your fourth or fifth receiver, then give Edwards a shot and keep your eye on Williams and Clayton.
While JEC is right in mentioning the four top rookie receivers from last year, only Clayton provided fantasy starter numbers for the entire season. What was special about his situation? He was stepping into a pass-friendly offense with no clear #1 option ahead of him. The guy that has the best situation this year is probably Wiliamson. Burleson is ahead of him, but it isn’t clear if he is cut out to be a #1 WR. Even so, unless Williamson makes a strong statement in the preseason, I wouldn’t draft him earlier than the 10th round. I will probably stay away from the rest of the guys as the post-college hype surrounding them will cause them to be drafted far too early. One note: of the four sophomores JEC mentioned, Lee Evans is going fourth — and he put up top 10 numbers over the last half of the season. His QB situation is certainly up in the air, but if J.P. Losman shows us anything in the pre-season, Evans should be a steal in the 7th or 8th round.
You’re right, Paulsen — Clayton was the only fantasy starter of all the rookie receivers last year. But the other three guys mentioned certainly deserved a roster spot based on their end-of-year numbers. They weren’t consistent, of course, but you rarely get a consistent performer as your fourth or fifth receiver.
As for Williamson, the Vikings are making it sound like he’ll start the year in the slot and that they’ll bring him along slowly during his rookie campaign. Considering Minnesota’s questionable depth at the position, Williamson could have value at some point this year but I wouldn’t look at him as anything more than an end-game gamble on draft day. Ideally, he’s someone to add during the season if his playing time increases.
Are there any truly valuable tight ends this year? If so, how early would you look at picking one up in a draft?
I have always been an advocate of drafting a good TE early in leagues that require a player at that position. This goes double for leagues that award 1 point per reception (which enhances the value of WRs and TEs). Last year, quite a few TEs emerged as threats for their respective teams, but there were three guys that were head and shoulders above the rest: Tony Gonzalez, Antonio Gates and Jason Witten. Gonzo and Gates have a great chance to put up #1 WR-like numbers again this year and are worth a 3rd round pick (Gonzo is even worth a late 2nd round pick IMO if the situation is right – i.e. you don’t like the WRs available and you plan to get your 2nd RB in the third round). Witten benefited a lot from injuries to the Cowboy WRs and it is unclear if he will receive the same number of looks this year. Still, he’s probably worth a look in the late 4th round if you are itching to fill that TE slot. If you don’t get one of the three, there are several other guys that have the potential to jump into the top 3. Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, Dallas Clark and Alge Crumpler have the best chance. Be cautious though, as everyone on that list (except Crumpler) has missed significant time due to injury in the last couple of years.
It’s funny because there are so many varying philosophies when it comes to drafting tight ends. Personally, I prefer to let all the big names get scooped up while I’m stockpiling talent in my backfield and getting whatever top receivers I can get my hands on. That said, if a quality tight end falls and I can get a bargain, I’ll certainly grab him.
There’s a lot to be said about having a highly productive tight end while most of the rest of the league starts some scrub who’s lucky to net 40 receiving yards each week. But to me, that theory made more sense when Gonzo was far and away the best fantasy tight end out there. This year, as Paulsen pointed out, Gonzo, Gates and Witten will get early round attention in most drafts while a handful of others are also capable of putting up decent numbers. With that in mind, I’ll be passing on the top guys and hoping to either catch lightning in a bottle with someone like Dallas Clark, Ben Watson or Jermaine Wiggins later, or that someone like Heap or Shockey will fall enough to make them a value pick.
Bottom line, if you’re intent on getting a premier tight end, there are now several to choose from (though I’d avoid overpaying for Witten). But if you’d rather stock up on talent in other areas, there’s also enough depth and potential at the position to get a productive tight end long after the elite guys have been drafted.
In the Antsports scoring system (which includes 1 point per reception), Gonzo tallied 270 points last year, Gates had 255, Witten 223 and Randy McMichael was 4th at 178. That’s a 92 point difference from 1st to 4th – by far the biggest fall off at any position. That’s what makes Gonzo and Gates so valuable. If you can find this year’s Gates – and there’s no guarantee there will be one – more power to you, but I’d rather take a sure thing and load up on WRs in rounds 4-10.
How about QB’s? Many of them seem to be overrated. Someone like Peyton or Culpepper could and maybe should go early but the difference between most QB’s seems almost minimal. Do you have opinions on some top QB’s and at what point I should forget about getting a big name and settle for the rest?
Gfunk – You’re exactly right and that’s why I like to wait on my QBs. This season the first twelve QBs being drafted (according to Antsports ADP) are: Manning, Culpepper, McNabb, Bulger, Green, Collins, Vick, Hasselbeck, Favre, Brady, Plummer and Palmer. Who’s the 13th? Aaron Brooks…this is a guy who has averaged 3690 yds, 25 TDs (+ 2 more rushing) against 15 INTs over the last 4 years. He’s consistently in the top 10, yet he’s the 13th QB off the board and you can probably get him in the 8th round. And he’s not the only value guy out there. I’d be pretty happy loading up on RBs, WRs and a stud TE in rounds 1-7 and draft Brooks, Plummer, Brady or Palmer in the 8th round. And who knows, Favre or Hasselbeck could fall that far too. The point is, there isn’t a whole lot of separation between QB4 and QB13. If you go this route, it’s smart to use your 9th or 10th round pick on your backup to ensure you get a good one.
You may be swaying me a bit on the tight end argument, Paulsen. If you can get a sure thing at tight end, a guy who will deliver #1 receiver stats, then it’s a definite advantage. I think what bugs me about that strategy is, it seems burning a third- or fourth-round pick on a TE is such a gamble because you’re not guaranteed to get those #1 receiver stats. Gonzalez was a major disappointment two years ago (773 yards, 9 TD), Witten’s far from a sure thing, and two of the supposed top-three tight ends from last season, Todd Heap and Jeremy Shockey, were merely average in 2004. You even have to be somewhat concerned about Gates, who looks like a budding star but came out of nowhere last year. Just seems like too much of a gamble, but it’s a gamble that, admittedly, could pay off handsomely. I guess it’s up to each individual owner to figure out if it’s a gamble he wants to take.
As for the QBs, I couldn’t agree more. Let everyone else jump on Peyton and Culpepper while you stockpile the rest of your roster in the early rounds before snapping up two solid starters like Matt Hasselbeck and Aaron Brooks. I drafted Trent Green, Marc Bulger and Tom Brady in the eighth round in three different leagues last year, and all three were among the most consistent fantasy quarterbacks in the game while Green delivered a top-five performance and is ranked on most draft boards as the fourth- or fifth-best quarterback this season. Hell, I’d be happy to get Brett Favre, David Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Chad Pennington, even Carson Palmer or Eli Manning, as my second quarterback. Jake Plummer can put up some points as well (though leagues that count interceptions beware). Plus, if you have the roster room, you can even get three solid quarterbacks since you’ve already filled your starting RB, WR and (maybe) TE positions, presenting you with several options during the season.
Unless I saw Peyton or Culpepper still out there in the third round, I wouldn’t even look at my QB rankings until the seventh or eighth round.
Witten and Gates definitely have more risk associated with them than Gonzalez does. Even in the disappointing season you mentioned (which was actually 773 yds and 7 TDs), he was still the #2 TE. Also, that was the year that he was flirting with an NBA tryout and sat out of camp. Since then, he’s been a fantasy coach’s dream. I’m definitely taking him in the third if he’s there. I’m not nearly as high on Witten, but if you think Gates can match last year’s output, then he’s worth a pick in the third as well. You’re right about Heap and Shockey – in one league, I took Heap last year in the 4th round and he sat out more than half the season with an ankle sprain. In another, I took Gonzo in the third and he killed the opposition.
Is there one or more defenses that are worth taking before the last few rounds?
Gary, As you probably know, defenses are notoriously difficult to predict and are therefore good candidates for late round picks. Outside of a few consistent performers (BAL, NE and TB) it’s tough to guarantee that any particular squad is going to produce. I generally wait until the final rounds to select my defenses and then, during the first few weeks of the season, I keep a close eye on the defenses on the waiver wire and pick up a surprise team that is performing well. That being said, if you’re in the middle rounds and there aren’t any players jumping out at you, it won’t hurt your squad to take the Baltimore D or New England D as they’ll probably finish in the top 5.
I am in a keeper league and have Culpepper. So I need to draft I guess a second tier running back. Any suggestions?
Is Ahman Green and Reggie Wayne a decent trade offer for Jamal Lewis or do you think Jamal Lewis could return to his 2003 form this season?
bhamlaxb — Second tier running back? Depending on your tiers that could be any number of guys. Do you have a group of guys you’re looking at and does your league give 1 point per reception?
Green + Wayne > Lewis in my book. Depending on your scoring system (both Green and Wayne’s value are enhanced if you award 1 point per reception) this could be an unbalanced trade or a VERY unbalanced trade. Lewis and Green are about the same and Wayne is without argument a Top 15 WR. Things could be a bit more complicated if you are in a keeper league as you’ll have to cut another player to make room for Wayne. It depends on how good that player is. If it’s a straight dynasty league (where all players are kept from year to year) or you’ve already had your draft, I’d take Green and Wayne for Lewis.
I’m not as high on Green, and think Lewis is the much better back for this season. I used to be a big Green fan but last year’s slip (1163 yards, 7 TD) has me a bit worried. Still, I agree with Paulsen, especially if you’re in need of a receiver. Wayne should put up spectacular numbers again and, while I like Lewis more than Green, you’ll still get a top back in the deal.
Okay you helped me so much the first time here goes again. 1) is it true that my fantasy WRs are only as good as their true llife QBs? I have A. Lelie, L. Evans (starters) and B. Edwards and Marcus Robinson, only Robinson has a decent QB throwing to him, should I be cruising the waiver wires? Finally, I picked up Ricky Williams for my bench, any thoughts on his potential to perform this season or is he not worth the roster spot? Oh and any thoughs on Carnel Williams, Sorry this is my first season. Thanks!!!
Will, you should be scouring the waiver wire for some receiver help and, if you have the depth, you should consider trading for a receiver too. I like Lelie and Evans but they both come with considerable risk, risk that’s only magnified by the fact that you can’t rely on anyone on your bench — Braylon, a rookie on a weak offensive team, is still holding out and Robinson is inconsistent and injury prone. If this is the same league that you were offered Green and Wayne for Lewis, that deal looks even better for you now.
As for your question on QBs affecting the value of your receivers, the answer is yes, mediocre quarterbacks can drag down their receivers numbers, just as elite QBs elevate the value of their receivers (check out Wayne and Brandon Stokley last year). Of your four WRs, Robinson has the best QB throwing to him (Culpepper) but he’s also probably the guy I’d count on the least in your group. Paulsen hit on Evans’ potential to break out in an earlier post and Lelie, if he ever puts together a consistent season, could become a highly productive fantasy receiver. But with Plummer, Losman and Dilfer throwing to Leli, Evans and Edwards, you should definitely be worried about their production in 2005, especially since none of these guys is the first option on his team (Edwards may be, depending on when he signs and how well Antonio Bryant plays).
Ricky Williams: I’d hold on to him if you’ve got the room, but it can sometimes be tough to stash a guy on your bench for an extended period of time because you’ve always got injuries and bye weeks to contend with. And with Williams already sitting out the first four games of the season, you may find yourself in need of an extra roster spot sooner rather than later. Based on potential alone, Williams should be on someone’s roster but your individual needs will determine if he should be on your roster. If you’ve got depth in your backfield, it might be best to let someone else wait on him because, even though Williams obviously has the ability to deliver a 1,000-yard season in a 12-game schedule, he also has rookie Ronnie Brown to contend with, and it sounds like the Dolphins want Brown to start.
Finally, I love Cadillac. He should see a ton of action and Tampa views him as an every-down back, which is big news. The Bucs love to throw to their RBs as well, and even though he’ll lose a bit of PT to Michael Pittman, Cadillac will be the guy. You should be able to get him as a third or even fourth back (depending on who you take in the first few rounds of your draft), and that makes Williams a prime value pick.
I’d just like to add to JEC’s post. Will, your WRs aren’t strong – Lelie and Evans both have excellent upside, but there are big question marks surrounding them going into this season. I’m not expecting much from Edwards this year either. If Cleveland were desperate for WRs, I’d say he’s the #1 guy once he signs, but with the presence of Dennis Northcutt, Antonio Bryant and Andre Davis, he’s got a few guys he’s got to get past. I agree with JEC, if you are being offered Green and Wayne for Lewis in this league, I would jump on it…NOW! I am higher on Plummer than JEC is – Jake “The Snake” was the #5 QB last year (according to the Antsports scoring system) and will probably continue to improve this season. The only thing holding Lelie back is himself.
Re: Ricky, if you have the roster spot, hold on to him. I suspect that his days in Miami are numbered, but if he plays well after his suspension, he is a prime candidate to be traded to a team that needs RB help. Believe me, if a GM is desperate enough, Ricky will look like a good option.
As for Cadillac Williams, you may be able to get him as your 3rd RB, but I think he’ll make a good 2nd RB for a team that used two of their first three picks on positions other than RBs. Obviously that’s a little risky, but the fact that he’s going in the 4th round in a lot of drafts makes it tough to get him as your 3rd RB.
Admittedly, it was unfair of me to lump Plummer into the same group with those other quarterbacks, since Jake is a much better QB than Losman and Dilfer (though if your league counts interceptions, you may need to think twice about drafting him). But inconsistency has troubled Plummer throughout his career and, while he’s certainly been a better quarterback since moving to Denver, he still has his moments. Because of that, Lelie and Rod Smith remain inconsistent fantasy options as well.
As for my comment on Cadillac Williams being your third back, I actually prefer to snag three RBs in the first four or five rounds. Call me crazy, but the RB position is so critical to fantasy success that I feel I’ve got an advantage if I come out of the draft with at least three productive backs. Sure, this strategy has its drawbacks (I miss out on the Tony Gonzalezes of the world) but if I want to have depth at any position, it’s RB. Aside from the match-up options and injury insurance it gives you, having three or four quality backs also gives you prime in-season trade bait because, at one point or another, someone in your league is going to need a top running back. When that opportunity arises, pounce. You’ll find it much easier to fill a hole in your roster if you’ve got a deep backfield to deal from.
With that in mind, Williams projects as a likely third back for me. But again, that’s all a matter of preference. Paulsen and I have been laying out our differing draft philosophies this week but, in the end, you need to decide what strategy will work best for you.
JEC is right – there is no position that falls off faster than RBs. There aren’t too many decent options after the fifth round. Drafting three RBs in the first four or five rounds is a good draft strategy in leagues that require two starting RBs. In a league that has one starting RB, two starting WRs, one starting TE and one flex position (RB, WR or TE), drafting your third RB early isn’t nearly as important, IMO. With Carnell, you’ve got a better chance of getting him as your 3rd RB if your draft is held sooner rather than later. He’s already going on average at 4.05, so if he shows anything resembling workhorse potential in the pre-season, his draft position will creep up into the third round. Keep in mind that when I talk draft position for these players, I am referring to a 12-team snake draft. Many leagues utilize a 10-team draft, but I find that the teams are too loaded if the league has less than 12 teams.
I was offered a trade. Terrell Owens for Roy Williams….Would you make this trade? If Owens plays it’s a no brainer but it’s a gamble. This is a keeper league so Williams has more overall long term value. Thanks for your help and I love your column.
Chris – To make sure we see your posts, you might want to post on the current FF thread. We try to start one each week. To answer your question, I think Owens plays this year but I am using caution when drafting him. The situation with the Eagles has become so contentious that it is possible that it will blow up even further. Many people think that Owens will return to camp and he’ll go on to have a good season, but I’m not as confident. I don’t know that I would trade Owens for Williams right now, but it depends on your situation and whether or not you’ll be able to keep Williams next year (which depends on the # of keepers you can keep and who else you have on your roster). Give me those details and I can make a better recommendation.
I would just add, hope thats okay. I live in San Francisco and was only too glad to see TO leave the 49ers, the guy is a cancer. Recall the season prior to his leaving he dogged it all year. If TO is not happy, and I think we know he is not, he will not play well and will try to force a trade. Regardless how bad the 9ers are with out him, they are a better team and closer to winning without him. I would never put him on my FF team.
Will – I hear you. I have a tough time drafting a guy like Owens. In fact, I’ve never had him on my fantasy squad.