Closer. It’s one of the toughest jobs in baseball, in all of sports even. Or so we’re led to believe. What is it about getting three outs in the ninth inning that’s so different from getting three outs in the seventh? Why do managers make situational decisions in the seventh (e.g. bringing in lefties to face lefties) but insist on using their pre-assigned “closer” in the ninth? What if the situation in the seventh is far more dire than that of the ninth (e.g. if the three, four, and five hitters are due up or the bases are loaded)? Why isn’t the best pitcher on the mound in the biggest spots?
I’ll tell you why: saves, the only statistic that changes the way the game is played, as well as the way it’s financed. A save situation is the only time a manager makes a decision based on arbitrary numerals rather than what’s going to help his team win. The only time he’d do it on purpose anyway. To quote Michael Lewis in Moneyball:
The central insight that led [Billy Beane] to turn minor league nobodies into successful big league closers and to refuse to pay them the many millions a year they demanded once they became free agents was that it was more efficient to create a closer than to buy one. Established closers were systematically overpriced, in large part because of the statistic by which closers were judged in the marketplace: “saves.” The very word made the guy who achieved them sound vitally important. But the situation typically described by the save—the bases empty in the ninth inning with the team leading—was far less critical than a lot of other situations pitchers faced. The closer’s statistic did not have the power of language; it was just a number. You could take a slightly above average pitcher and drop him into the closer’s role, let him accumulate some gaudy number of saves, and then sell him off. You could, in essence, buy a stock, pump it up with false publicity, and sell it off for much more than you’d paid for it.
Before I really get started I suppose I should give full disclosure. I’m a Mets fan, woe be upon me, and that’s why this stuff’s on my mind. For some reason Terry Collins insists on calling Frank Francisco his closer. Frank Francisco, he of the 8.59 ERA and 2.05 WHIP. He of the three losses, 14 earned runs, eight walks, and 22 hits in just 14.2 innings pitched. He is our closer, and nobody else. All those questions in the first paragraph, yeah, I’ve been shouting them at my television over the past few days.
Yet it’s not those numbers that most horrify me, it’s these: two years and $12 million, or Frank Frank’s contract. It’s because of them that Francisco remains in his position, “for now.”
Like so many other closers, Francisco has but one man to thank for those numbers. That man is Jerome Holtzman, the sportswriter who invented the save in 1960, leading to it becoming an official statistic in 1969.
There was a time when the best relievers were called “firemen,” and they pitched when they were needed most. Bases loaded with one out in the eighth? That’s fireman time. Closer time is the ninth inning, with a three run lead and nobody on base, which has lead some to call it “the most overrated position in sports.”
Those who believe in the sanctity of the closer will tell you the ninth inning is different, there’s more pressure, it gets in your head the way no other inning can. To them I say this: bullshit. Dave Smith of Retrosheet conducted a study of late-inning leads from 1944 to 2003 and an additional 14 seasons prior. He found that regardless of strategy, teams that enter the ninth inning with a lead win 95 percent of the time. The figure doesn’t even vary all that much, the high was 96.7 percent (1909), while the low was 92.5 percent (1941).
Granted, those figures apply to any lead, not just “save situations,” so they’re not really relevant to this discussion, right? Wrong. Smith calculated the figures for those scenarios as well, and they’re not all that different. Going into the ninth inning, a team ahead by one run wins 85 percent of the time, if they’re two runs up it’s 94 percent, and a three-run lead gets you 96 percent.
The problem for most teams is that they obsessively save their closer for the ninth, he might go a week without seeing action during a losing streak. As a result, they lose in the middle innings. The Mets have the exact opposite problem. Their fireman situations often come in the ninth inning, but only because Francisco creates them. They save the guy they think is their best reliever, because he’s making the most money, and waste better pitchers like Bobby Parnell, Tim Byrdak, and Jon Rauch in the middle innings. Now, the Mets think Francisco is their best for a reason, and maybe he is. But he’s not their best right now, and until he is there should be someone else on the hill in critical situations, regardless of what inning it is.
Creating competition is apparently overrated in Mike Mularkey’s book.
When speaking to NFL.com’s Albert Breer on Monday, the new Jaguars head coach said that his quarterback position is not open for competition.
“No, it’s not (a competition),” Mulakery said. “Blaine’s our starting quarterback…I’m a big body-language reader, and on the practice field, the cafeteria, in meetings, he has a confidence about him. We feel good about him.”
It’s understandable that Mularkey wants to instill confidence in Gabbert right from the start. If it walks, talks, and acts like a duck, it’s probably a duck. Thus, if Gabbert is entrusted to be the starter from Day 1, then the hope is that he’ll embrace the leadership role and enter training camp brimming with confidence.
That said, considering how poorly Gabbert played last season as a rookie, it’s interesting that Mularkey has committed to him so quickly. Chad Henne isn’t a great starting option, but one would have thought Mularkey would have at least left the position open to competition. Most coaches want to create competition at every position so that players don’t become complacent – not award starting jobs in May.
Then again, Mularkey was one of the coaches in Atlanta who did a great job easing Matt Ryan into the NFL. His offense is quarterback-friendly because it relies on power running and a passing game that works the short-to-intermediate zones. Thus, Gabbert, who doesn’t have to worry about the lockout ruining his preparation time this offseason, shouldn’t have an issue grasping his role in Mularkey’s offense.
It’ll be interesting to see how the former Missouri star fares in Mularkey’s offense and to watch him try to bounce back from a brutal rookie campaign.
There’s been a lot of discussion lately of how the Washington Nationals might shut down phenom pitcher Stephen Strasburg after he reaches 160 innings even if they’re in contention for the pennant. While the debate is understandable given his past injuries, it still highlights the differences in the expectations for modern pitchers versus some of the all-time greats.
Consider the career of Robin Roberts, the great Hall of Fame pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies. Roberts played for 19 seasons and compiled a 286–245 record with 45 career shutouts. He notched a lifetime ERA of 3.41, along with a staggering 305 complete games and 4,688⅔ innings pitched in 676 games. Even in a era when pitchers were expected to complete games and pitch on only four-days’ rest, Roberts was known for his incredible stamina. When interviewed after Roberts passed away, his teammate and fellow Phillies starter Curt Simmons said, “He was like a diesel engine. The more you used him, the better he ran. I don’t think you could wear him out. The end of the 1950 season, I was in the Army and I think Bob Miller had a bad back. I know Robin had to throw almost every day.” In a six-year span starting in 1950, Roberts won 20 or more games and pitched at least 304 innings in six consecutive seasons.
In many ways, Major League Baseball seems to be entering into a new era of the pitcher, as offensive production is decreasing and the game is once again being dominated by great pitchers like Strasburg. But it’s doubtful we’ll ever see workhorses quite like Robin Roberts again. Even the great Jack Morris pitched his amazing 10-inning game winner in game 7 of the World Series over 20 years ago.
While modern players will likely never match Roberts for his stamina, he remains a role model for all professional athletes for the class he displayed on and off the field. Just listen to the interview above for an example of why Roberts was widely respected as a true gentleman. When he passed away in 2010 at the age of 83, Marty Noble summed up the attitudes towards Roberts in the opening paragraphs of his obituary:
For the second time in three days, baseball lost one of its foremost gentlemen. Robin Roberts, as pleasant and gracious as any man in the game, died Thursday. As readily associated with the Phillies as any player has been with any franchise, Roberts was 83 years old when he passed away in Florida due to natural causes.
The most accomplished right-handed pitcher in the history of the Phillies, Roberts was a Hall of Famer, card-carrying member of the 1950 “Whiz Kids” and an active force in the creation of the Major League Baseball Players Association. Most of all he was an agreeable, genial man whose company was enjoyed by those who met him.
Like many players of his era, Roberts was a World War II veteran who broke into the big leagues after the war. He actually went first to Michigan State where he played basketball, but then tried baseball and was signed by the Phillies in 1948. In 1969 this seven-time All-Star was named as the greatest Phillie of all time.
When you consider what it takes to have a Hall of Fame career, durability, excellence and class are some of the most important characteristics. With his career and his life off the field, Robin Roberts should be an enduring example to the modern player. And while modern team General Managers try to protect “investments” like Strasburg, they should be reminded that the true great will rise to the challenge, if you let them.
Wisconsin Badgers’ quarterback Russell Wilson (16) scores on a 4-yard run past Oregon Ducks Troy Hill during the first quarter of the 2012 Rose Bowl game in Pasadena, California on January 2, 2012. The Ducks defeated the Badgers 45-38. UPI/Jon SooHoo
Pete Carroll saw enough out of Russell Wilson this weekend to confirm that the rookie will have an opportunity to compete for the Seahawks’ starting quarterback job this year.
When asked whether Seattle expected Wilson to compete as a rookie when the team drafted him in the third round last month, Carroll said that he “hoped that, and we confirmed it in these three days.”
The biggest knock on Wilson coming out of Wisconsin was his lack of height. He measured 5-foot-10 5/8 at the Senior Bowl weigh-ins back in late January, making him a quarterback in a baseball player’s body. But he’s incredibly smart, he’s an outstanding athlete and he has solid pocket presence. There’s no reason to think that he can’t win a starting job, even after the Hawks gave free agent Matt Flynn a three-year, $19.5 million contract back in March.
That said, it would be an upset if Flynn didn’t earn the starting job in preseason. Russell could give him a run for his money and keep him on a short leash once the regular season starts, but it stands to reason that Flynn will be Seattle’s starter in Week 1.
I’m just a casual soccer fan, and I usually wait until the World Cup every four years to really get into the sport. That said, I’m glad I made some time today to check out Manchester City versus Queens Park Rangers today for the Premiership title. Man City hasn’t won in 44 years, and they needed a win today to grab the title from Manchester United.
What I saw was a stunning comeback, as Man City, trailing 2-1 going into stoppage time at the end of the match, managed to score two stunning goals in the final five minutes to win the game and claim the title.
The finish to the game was just incredible. Check out the highlights on SportsCenter if you didn’t catch the game.
Louisiana State University wide receiver Rueben Randle (2) scores on a touchdown pass against the University of Florida during their NCAA football game in Baton Rouge, Louisiana October 8, 2011. REUTERS/Sean Gardner (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
The Browns’ run defense just got much worse.
The Browns were brutal against the run last season and that was with 6-foot-3, 334-pound Phil Taylor plugging the middle of their line. With Taylor on the shelf for the next 4-6 months (if not the entire season) with a torn pectoral, Cleveland’s run defense figures to get worse. The Browns drafted Cincinnati DT John Hughes and Boise State’s Billy Winn last month, but neither is suited to be a starter. (Winn is the better bet to make an immediate impact, but his work ethic was questioned coming into the draft.) Opposing running backs should find plenty of open running lanes when playing the Browns again next season.
Randle already impressing.
Second-round pick Rueben Randle is already reportedly impressing the Giants. He went up high to catch a pass along the sideline during Friday’s mini-camp and then burned third-round selection Jayron Hosley on a go pattern later in the day. I said it immediately following the draft and I’ll say it again: Randle is the perfect replacement for Mario Manningham in the Giants’ offense because of his deep threat ability. He’ll work the seam just like Manningham did the past two seasons in New York.
Wright never had a playbook at Baylor.
File away as interesting: Receiver Kendall Wright never had a playbook in college. Baylor coach Art Briles used practices, film study and meetings to teach Wright over 300 plays. The Titans’ playbook will be the first-rounders first ever.
No need to worry about 49er rookies being out of shape.
One of the first things out of head coach Jim Harbaugh’s mouth on Friday was that the 49ers’ rookies looked out of shape, specifically first-round pick A.J. Jenkins. But one thing to keep in mind is that all rookies are out of shape at this point. It’s up to the coaching staffs to bring the players along slowly and show them what NFL speed looks like so that when training camp rolls around, they can be in stride with the veterans. Plus, it’s important for these youngsters not to get hurt tweaking a hamstring that could potentially affect them all year.
Burfict the perfect low-risk player for Bengals.
Former Arizona State linebacker Vontaze Burfict says he has a chip on his shoulder after being undrafted last April. That should be music to the ears of the Bengals, who signed Burfict as a free agent following the draft. Burfict doesn’t lack talent, he just bombed pre-draft workouts and was an undisciplined player in college. If he winds up making the roster (and don’t be surprised if he does), then it’s a perfect low-risk, high-reward situation for Cincinnati. Maybe all he needed was a wake up call and some motivation.
Young to eventually be Bills’ starter?
Vince Young was brutal as Michael Vick’s backup last year in Philadelphia and seeing as how he just signed a seven-year, $62 million contract in October last year, Ryan Fitzpatrick will remain Buffalo’s starter. That said, Chan Gailey has always loved mobile quarterbacks so if Fitzpatrick struggles early in 2012, don’t be surprised if Young finds himself in a starting role again.
Jets latest to turn down “Hard Knocks?”
The AP reports that the Jets have turned down a “Hard Knocks” sequel because the team wants to limit distractions during training camp. The Falcons essentially gave the network the same reason as to why they didn’t want to appear on the show, and it’s saying something that HBO can’t even get Rex Ryan to say yes to attention. That said, hopefully the network can find a suitor because the show is great for fans.
A retractable roof for Minnesota? What would the “Purple People Eaters say?”
Vikings owners Zygi and Mark Wilf have hinted that the team’s new stadium will have a retractable roof because they want to make the stadium as attractive to fans as possible. But I say get your ass out in the cold, Minnesotans, and enjoy the game how it’s meant to be viewed: Out in the elements.
Cincinnati Bengals receiver Terrell Owens laughs while warming up prior to his NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns in Cleveland, Ohio October 3, 2010.REUTERS/Aaron Josefczyk (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
During a recent appearance on Dr. Phil, Allen Wrangers receiver Terrell Owens said that he belw threw most of the $80 million that he earned playing in the NFL. But during a radio hit on 790 The Zone in Atlanta today, Owens said he isn’t broke.
“I’m not broke,” Owens said. “My broke, for the normal person, is not their broke.”
All right.
“My circumstances have changed,” Owens said. “That means I don’t make the same amount of money that I used to make. With my financial situation, people are asking how did I blow $60 or $80 million? Those numbers are skewed. If you just kind of factor in the numbers of what I made and how many years I’ve played. Other than that, I don’t know what else to say…I’m not an extravagant living-type person. I didn’t blow my money. My money was stolen and mismanaged.”
My question is, if he isn’t broke then why hasn’t he paid his child support? Why hasn’t he seen his kids? Is he not broke-broke but broke enough to be a responsible adult and parent? I’m confused.
Owens also told 790 The Zone that he wants to return to the NFL.
“I really want to take it there. My thing is, just let me have an opportunity to go out on my own terms…I know I can play.”
T.O. might be better than the third or fourth option on some teams but this isn’t someone to feel pity for. Not the way he treated former teammates Jeff Garcia and Donovan McNabb, as well as former offensive coordinators like Greg Knapp. I realize Owens is a fiery competitor but when he was at the top of his game he didn’t make it easy on his teammates to be around him.
Sorry, T.O., but going on your terms may never be an option for you.
San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews (24) fumbles the ball as he is hit by Houston Texans defenders Mario Williams (top), Eugene Wilson (R) and Bernard Pollard (31) during their NFL game in Houston November 7, 2010. The Texans recovered the fumble on the play. REUTERS/Richard Carson (UNITED STATES – Tags: SPORT FOOTBALL)
Seeing as how no teams have played a down yet, it makes it difficult to gauge which defenses will be improved in 2012. But based on the decisions they made in free agency and the draft, these five teams should be improved defensively next season.
Buffalo Bills
Think of the impact that Julius Peppers has had with the Bears the past two seasons – that’s exactly what Mario Williams could do for the Bills in 2012. Buffalo’s defense struggled last season mostly because the pass rush was non-existent. So GM Buddy Nix lured Williams to Buffalo this offseason and made sure he didn’t leave the city without first signing a contract. Nix also signed Mark Anderson, an experienced situational pass rusher that should benefit from playing opposite Williams in the Bills’ “new” 4-3. Adding cornerback Stephon Gillmore should also help Buffalo on the backend while Nigel Bradham and Tank Carder will add depth to the linebacker corps. We’ll have to see how the Dave Wannstedt hire pans out but for now, there’s no question the Bills have upgraded their pass rush in one offseason.
Dallas Cowboys
With the moves they made this offseason, the Cowboys’ defense could transform from a top 15 unit into a top 10. DeMarcus Ware, Jay Ratliff, Anthony Spencer and Sean Lee comprise a solid front seven but Dallas struggled on the back end in 2012. So Jerry Jones invested $50.1 million and a second round pick on his cornerback positions this offseason with the additions of free agent Brandon Carr (the best CB on the market) and first-round pick Morris Claiborne (the best CB in the draft). It’s never guaranteed that a big money free agent or a rookie will make an immediate impact but at least on paper, the Cowboys have definitely improved their secondary. The signing of Dan Connor was also somewhat underrated as well. He struggles at times in coverage and he’s not a pass rusher but he’ll be perfect for what Dallas signed him for: an insider ‘backer that can bolster the run defense.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were productive this offseason in re-signing John Abraham (their best and sometimes only pass rusher last season), safety Thomas DeCoud (who is better than his reputation would suggest), and situational pass rusher Kroy Biermann (who appeared to be distracted last year, although marrying a reality TV star and parenting a newborn will do that to a man). But fans grew aggravated by GM Thomas Dimitroff’s inactivity in free agency and expressed disappointment that the team didn’t go after big money talent like Mario Williams. (Fans were also upset that the team didn’t re-sign MLB Curtis Lofton, who wound up landing with division rival New Orleans.) But the day before the draft Atlanta swung a deal that could only be considered as a steal. Acquiring a three-time Pro Bowler in Asante Samuel for a seventh round pick was a bargain for any team, especially one that struggled getting off the field last season on third downs. Furthermore, the hiring of defensive coordinator Mike Nolan was a huge coup for the Falcons, who should be more aggressive and better equipped to handle explosive offenses like New Orleans, Green Bay and New York. No, the Falcons weren’t very active in free agency this year. But the re-signing of Abraham, the acquisition of Samuel and the hiring of Nolan should be more than enough to make this an improved Falcons squad.
Philadelphia Eagles
After struggling early in the season, the Eagles wound up being a top 10 defensive unit in 2011. But here’s why they’ll be improved in 2012. Juan Castillo has a full year of experience under his belt and the pressure he faced last year being a first-time defensive coordinator should lessen. Andy Reid also hit a home run in this year’s draft. Fletcher Cox has top 10 talent and the Eagles landed him at No. 12 (after moving up). Mychal Kendricks is undersized for the position but he was extremely productive at Cal, he hits like a Mac truck and he plays at 110mph every down. Vinny Curry is raw but he has potential as a pass rush and the only reason Georgia cornerback Brandon Boykin fell to the fourth round was because he broke his leg at the Senior Bowl and was limited in pre-draft workouts. Otherwise, he’s a second-round prospect. Re-signing Derek Landri was also good for depth purposes and acquiring DeMeco Ryans from Houston should help the run defense.
St. Louis Rams
The Rams are a bit of a wildcard but considering they ranked 22nd in yards allowed, 31st in run defense and 26th in points allowed, there’s really nowhere to go but up. There are five moves the Rams made this offseason that should prove to beneficial in 2012. The first was hiring defensive-minded Jeff Fisher as head coach, who brought assistants like Mike Waufle and Chuck Cecil with him to St. Louis. The Rams also added scrappy cornerback Cortland Finnegan and defensive tackle Kendall Langford, who is a freaking house. Drafting run-stuffing DT Michael Brockers to play alongside Langford was also big and former Florida cornerback Janoris Jenkins could prove to be worth the gamble that new GM Les Snead took in the second round. Keep an eye on William Hayes, too. He was limited last year because of a shoulder injury he suffered in Week 1 but he’s someone that could potentially see his playing time increase because he’s he can play the run and provide some pressure. The Rams screwed the pooch by not taking an outside linebacker in the second round, but all in all they had a productive offseason and should be improved next year.
Texas Rangers Josh Hamilton reacts after getting hit by a pitch from New York Yankees Phil Hughes at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on April 25, 2012 in Arlington, Texas. UPI/Ian Halperin
In three games this season against Baltimore pitchers, Albert Pujols had zero hits, zero home runs, zero RBI and just one run scored.
In one game versus Baltimore pitchers, Josh Hamilton had five hits, four home runs, eight RBI and four runs scored.
Yiiiikes.
With his historic performance on Tuesday night, Hamilton became the first American League player to go 5-for-5 with four home runs in one game. He also set an AL record with 18 total bases and became the 16th player to hit four dingers in a single game. Carlos Delgado was the last player to achieve the feat back in 2003 as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.
It’s rather amazing to think that Hamilton, one of the best sluggers in the game, doesn’t even have a contract past this season. From the Rangers’ perspective, it’s understandable that they don’t want to pony up $100-plus million for a player that has battled off-field demons his entire career but come on – he’s now hitting over .400 and he has 14 long balls on the year. That’s absolutely incredible, I don’t care how early in the season it is.
There’s an argument to be made for St. Louis but thanks in large part to Hamilton, Texas still has the best offense in the league. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rangers make another deep postseason run, although let’s not get ahead of ourselves. There’s still a lot of baseball left to be played.
It’s almost comical the way Hamilton and the Dodgers’ Matt Kemp are destroying opposing pitcher this year. Kemp almost looks like he’s not even trying and that’s meant to be a compliment. As of this writing, Hamilton now has more home runs than the entire San Diego Padres team.
For those scoring at home, Hamilton is now on pace to hit 75 home runs this season.
Robert Griffin III walks on the stage after the Washington Redskins select him as the #2 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft at Radio City Music Hall in New York City on April 26, 2012. UPI /John Angelillo
Mike Shanahan apparently only needed one rookie minicamp to name Robert Griffin III his starting quarterback.
My question is, what took him so long? I’m shocked Shanahan didn’t walk to the podium at Radio City Music Hall and made the announcement while Griffin was busy hugging Roger Goodell.
If anyone is surprised that Shanahan has already made this decision, don’t be. He gave up first-round picks in 2012, 2013 and 2014, as well as the team’s second-round pick this year so why not start Griffin right away? There’s no reason to wait.
“Any time you pick a player with the second pick of the draft and you give up another two No. 1’s and No. 2 and you move up four spots, you’ve got a game plan in mind,” Shanahan told Mike Jones of the Washington Post. “We’re going to adjust our system to what he feels comfortable with, and we’ll watch him grow, and we’ll do what we feel like he does the best.”
You never want to rush a quarterback when he’s not ready but what is Shanahan to do, hold an open competition at quarterback when everyone knows Griffin is his guy? Shanahan has seen enough out of Rex Grossman to know that he can’t win with him under center for 16 games. Why delay getting Griffin much needed experience in his first season?
Given the success that Matt Ryan, Sam Bradford, Cam Newton and Joe Flacco had as rookies over the past four seasons, there’s no reason to think that Griffin can’t turn the Redskins into an immediate winner. But his success will depend on how well Washington’s shaky offensive line protects him next season.
Left tackle Trent Williams tested positive for banned substances ten times in September and October according to a report by Pro Football Talk.com last December. Thus, he’s one more screw up away from potentially serving a long-term suspension.
On the other side, Jammal Brown continues to battle lingering left hip and groin issues while left guard Kory Lichtensteiger is coming off November ACL surgery. Granted, the Redskins did draft three offensive linemen last month but who knows whether or not any of those players will be able to make an impact from Day 1.
But even if the Redskins decided to use a banner made of papier-mâché as their offensive line, Griffin will be their starter. He was destined for that role the second Shanahan swung that trade with the Rams.